Ricardo Mazalan / AP
Goalkeeper Matt Turner of the United States reacts during the World Cup group B soccer match between Iran and the United States at the Al Thumama Stadium in Doha, Qatar, Tuesday, Nov. 29, 2022.
Saturday, Dec. 3, 2022 | 9:20 a.m.
The stillness of a sports book for a big international soccer match is something new for those more used to taking NFL Sundays or March Madness matinees at the casino.
There’s a constant wave of people and noise in the latter attractions, putting in bets at the counter and reacting to the plays in a handful of different games. But a unified in-game calm is a characteristic of this year’s World Cup, or at least it was during the USA’s 1-0 win over Iran to finish the group stage Tuesday morning at Circa.
That’s where I took in the game, and it was quite an experience. All eyes were glued to the three-story screen, and there were no signs of movement while the action was in the midfield.
That made the sudden, engulfing roars for attacks and scoring chances all the more rousing. Taking in a World Cup match at Circa or any other major sports book is highly recommended. There’s still 14 more chances over the next couple weeks before a champion is crowned in Qatar.
The World Cup has been kind to Sunday Sweats as I’ve started 3-0 on bets on the event including a future on France to win Group D. Not all futures are going that smoothly though.
I was most excited about nabbing 16-to-1 on Neymar to win the Golden Boot, but alas, he went down with an injury right away. I want more exposure in that market so let’s lock in a few more bets to start this week’s column.
Brazil (which I’m holding a +350 future on), Spain and France appear to be the most likely winners and they all have players with value on the Golden Boot. Brazil’s Richarlison is 10-to-1 at Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook while France’s Olivier Giroud is 80-to-1.
Give me $150 to win $1,500 on Richarlison and $20 to win $1,600 on Giroud. Spain’s Alvaro Morata is 8-to-1 at the SuperBook, which isn’t a high enough price, but a much-better 12-to-1 at Boyd Sports so I’ll take $130 to win $1,560 on the Spanish striker.
That may sounds like a lot, but Sunday Sweats is feeling flush after profiting more than $2,000 in the last week. Several futures cashed — mostly in college football but also college basketball with Oklahoma winning the ESPN Invitational — to get us clear into the black for the first time this season.
Now the goal is to keep the bottom line there, and build on it.
Read on for this week’s Sunday Sweats that includes bets in six different categories with individual records attached. Check back tomorrow for an additional prop play in the Raiders’ gameday preview piece. The Weekly Raiders’ prop, as well as other plays placed outside the pick’em, will be tracked in the season-long record here with the standard being a bet to win $200 unless otherwise noted.
Tasty Total (8-6, $330): Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears under 45 (STN Sports)
$220 to win $200
This number moved up as much as three points when news spread that Bears quarterback Justin Fields would be back on the field this week. That’s too big of an adjustment. Fields has gotten a lot better this year, but the Bears’ offense has still been limited under him. Green Bay’s offense has hardly been any better. Both teams know each other well as divisional opponents and will be battling Soldier Field’s cold and windy conditions as well as its notoriously slow grass surface. The total the first time these two teams met this year was 42, and it went well under in a 27-10 Packers’ win.
Two-Team (Or Three-Team) Teaser (7-6, $50): New York Giants +7.5, Cincinnati Bengals +8.5 and Cleveland Browns -2 at +160 (Caesars/William Hill)
$150 to win $240
I like all three of these standard through-the-three-and-7 teaser sides and struggled to figure out which two to whittle it down to and pair together. That brought me Unabated’s new and currently-free teaser calculator where I plugged in all the combinations. The tool computed that the three-teamer holds more expected value than any other combination — including Ravens -2.5 against the Broncos, which was also available earlier. I still might have gone with the Ravens slightly over the Browns but the number moved before I had a chance to write this and lock it in. Cleveland should beat Houston with relative ease. New York and Cincinnati meanwhile should play Washington and Kansas City, respectively, close enough to have a chance to win at the end of the game.
Moneyline Parlay (3-9, -$696.50): San Francisco 49ers & England (90 Minutes + Stoppage Time) at +131 (Caesars/William Hill)
$200 to win $261
Against my better judgment, I placed an NFL-World Cup combination parlay last week here and it went down in flames with both sides losing outright. I can’t go out like that. Let’s at least give this setup one more shot. There’s slight value in both these sides, so why not put them together and hope for the best? The market isn’t going far enough to account for San Francisco’s stylistic advantage over Miami, especially at home. The 49ers are -190 on the moneyline when they should be above -200. England meanwhile is both far more talented and on better form than Senegal. Although both sides pulled out a pair of wins in the group stage, England’s expected goal share was almost double Senegal’s.
Player Prop (12-13, -$146): Ja’Marr Chase over 73.5 receiving yards -113 (Boyd Sports)
$226 to win $200
This is a big discount on last year’s Offensive Rookie of the Year since Sunday is expected to be his first game back in six weeks from a hip injury. The Bengals’ star is technically listed as questionable, but there’s little doubt in my mind he’s going to play — and play well. The Chiefs haven’t covered No. 1 receivers well this season, and Chase is more than a No. 1 receiver. He’s one of the best No. 1 receivers in football. His total should be in the 80s. And in the off chance he doesn’t return this week, this bet will be refunded.
Future Finding (3-2, $1,700): Nick Chubb to lead the league in rushing in Week 13 at 5-to-1 (Caesars/William Hill)
$100 to win $500
My initial interest was in betting Chubb to win the NFL’s season-long rushing title ahead of this week’s game against the Houston Texans’ run-challenged defense. Diving into the remaining schedule made me less bullish though. Although league-leader Josh Jacobs faces a tough slate of opposing defenses down the stretch, second-place Derrick Henry has a rather forgivable schedule ahead. Chubb’s is about league average so he has his work cut out for him in prying away an honor that Henry has already claimed twice in his career. I still believe Chubb tears up the Texans this week, though, so why not make a gamble on that? Gamblers typically seem to gravitate towards the longer shots in the weekly-leader markets but there’s often more value at the top of the board. Chubb might be one such example this week.
Non-football Play (9-5, $780): Japan to advance vs. Croatia +165 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)
$100 to win $165
Japan deserves more respect from the market after prevailing in World Cup’s Group E. Beating both Spain and Germany was more impressive than anything Croatia did in finishing second in Group F. This number seems too rooted in the past, and Croatia’s recent history of success in the World Cup. Japan might not be a traditional power, but it’s got a strong team this year and a chance to prolong its stay in Qatar at least one more round. Japan shouldn’t be favored here, but the number should be a touch shorter.
Sunday Sweats year to date: 42-41, $2,017.50
Weekend betting column year to date: 112-122-1, $5,911.08
Weekend betting column all-time: 454-453-5, $12,756.81
Previous pending future wagers: Vegas Golden Knights at 15-to-1 to win the 2023 Stanley Cup ($200 to win $3,000); TreVeyon Henderson 50-to-1 to win the Heisman Trophy ($100 to win $5,000); Patrick Mahomes 10-to-1 to win NFL MVP ($200 to win $2,000); CeeDee Lamb 20-to-1 to lead the NFL in receiving yards; Las Vegas Raiders under 8.5 wins +140 ($200 to win $280); New Orleans Saints to win the NFC South +360 ($300 to win $1,080); Philadelphia Eagles to win the NFC 14-to-1 ($100 to win $1,400); Minnesota Vikings to win the NFC North +250 ($300 to win $750); Jacksonville Jaguars to win the AFC South at +300 (risking $300 to win $900); Los Angeles Rams NOT to win the NFC West +145 ($200 to win $290); Nick Bosa to win NFL Defensive Player of the Year at 7-to-1 ($250 to win $1,750); Indianapolis Colts to miss the playoffs at -110 ($220 to win $200); Miami Dolphins to miss the playoffs at +140 ($200 to win $280) ; Giannis Antetokounmpo to win NBA MVP at 7-to-1 ($300 to win $2,100); Minnesota Timberwolves to win Northwest Division at +150 ($200 to win $300); Minnesota Timberwolves to win Western Conference at 15-to-1 ($100 to win $1,500); Minnesota Timberwolves to win NBA Finals at 33-to-1 ($75 to win $2,475); New Orleans Pelicans to win Southwest Division at +350 ($200 to win $700); New Orleans Pelicans to win Western Conference at 24-to-1 ($50 to win $1,200); New Orleans Pelicans to win NBA Finals at 55-to-1 ($50 to win $2,750); Golden State Warriors under 53 wins ($220 to win $200); Los Angeles Clippers under 52.5 wins ($220 to win $200); Boston Celtics to win the NBA Finals at 7-to-1 ($300 to win $2,100); Tampa Bay Buccaneers to make the playoffs at -135 ($270 to win $200); Brazil to win World Cup at +350 (risking $300 to win $1,050); Neymar to win World Cup Golden Boot at 16-to-1 ($100 to win $1,600); TCU not to make the College Football Playoff at -105 ($210 to win $200); Clemson to make the College Football Playoff at +200 (risking $100 to win $200); Chicago Blackhawks to have lowest regular season point total at 6-to-1 ($200 to win $1,200)
Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or