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Alabama running back Jahmyr Gibbs (13) runs by Alabama defensive lineman Braylen Ingraham (52) during the first half of Alabama’s A-Day NCAA college football scrimmage, Saturday, April 16, 2022, in Tuscaloosa, Ala.
Thursday, Aug. 25, 2022 | 2 a.m.
The college football season is two days away from kicking off with less than 10 days remaining until every team is in action to wipe off a large portion of the betting board.
The clock is ticking on chances to place season-long wagers as bets like win totals disappear when the games start and other markets like odds to win conference championships start to fluctuate immediately. It’s therefore time to get one last set of bets in while it’s still possible.
The full College Football by the Odds column handicapping every Football Bowl Subdivision game will return next Wednesday with picks separated by conference. Let’s use the same format and make one final best bet involving every conference, spanning the range of sports books’ offerings — from win totals to straight futures and even a couple total plays for this weekend.
Here are 10 final bets to make right before the season gets under way.
ACC: North Carolina to win the Coastal Division at 6-to-1 (Boyd Sports)
Previous wagers: Louisville to win the ACC at 40-to-1, Clemson quarterback D.J. Uiagalelei to win the Heisman Trophy at 8-to-1 and Clemson quarterback Cade Klubnik to win the Heisman Trophy at 150-to-1
The Coastal Division is annually the most wide-open race in the Power Five conference, with all seven teams having claimed at least one championship in the last eight years. This year should be no different despite excitement building on Miami and Pittsburgh at the top. Both the Hurricanes and Panthers are flawed, however, and have major coaching questions. They’re overvalued and worth looking for spots to fade. Unfortunately, Virginia Tech, Virginia, Georgia Tech and Duke all also look to be headed for a down year. That leaves North Carolina, which was a runaway favorite to win the Coastal just a year ago. The Tar Heels had a disappointing season but shouldn’t have dropped this far. They have a much easier schedule than both Miami and Pittsburgh, and have a consistently productive offense under shrewd coordinator Phil Longo.
Big Ten: Wyoming at Indiana on Saturday under 44.5 points (STN Sports)
Both these teams play at glacial paces already and might be more motivated to slow it down in this weekend’s season opener. The Cowboys are breaking in virtually an entire new offense personnel-wise and know their best chance to be competitive will be limiting possessions and draining the play clock. Illinois, meanwhile, begins Big Ten conference play next week at Indiana and will therefore be motivated to just attempt to build a lead and sit on it without showing much schematically.
Big 12: Texas Tech over 5.5 wins at +105 (BetMGM)
Previous wagers: None
Offensive coordinator Zach Kittley took Western Kentucky from a losing record to conference championship in one season last year with his hyper-modern update on the Air Raid style. The results probably aren’t going to be that drastic in the Big 12 as opposed to the Conference USA, but he’ll at least elevate his alma mater to a competitive squad and pain to prepare for every week. He’s got quite the high-upside veteran quarterback to pilot the attack in Oregon transfer Tyler Shough. Texas Tech was already better than its 6-6 record indicated a year ago, as they had horrendous turnover luck, and the situation is looking up with the staff new coach Joey McGuire assembled this year.
Pac-12: Utah under 9 wins at +130 (Caesars/William Hill)
Utah coach Kyle Whittingham stands on stage by the trophy after his team defeated Colorado State 45-10 in the Las Vegas Bowl NCAA college football game Saturday, Dec. 20, 2014, in Las Vegas. (AP Photo/John Locher)
Previous wagers: Oregon State over 6 wins at -130
The hype on the Utes has spiraled out of control. Yes, they got red-hot at the end of last year to win the Pac-12 but they’re still outgunned from a pure talent perspective by at least four opponents on the schedule in Florida, UCLA, USC and Oregon. Sure, they make up for it by having one of the steadiest coaches in the country in Kyle Whittingham but even he’s only headed a pair of double-digit win regular seasons in 10 years since the program joined the Pac-12. Utah’s most likely record might be 9-3, but 8-4 is far more likely than 10-2. There shouldn’t be this large of a plus-price attached to the under.
SEC: Alabama running back Jahmyr Gibbs to win the Heisman Trophy at 60-to-1 (SuperBook at Westgate Las Vegas)
Previous wagers: Georgia to win the College Football Playoff at 4-to-1 and South Carolina over 5.5 wins at -150
Like the previously listed wagers on Ohio State’s Henderson and Smith-Njiba, let’s stick with the theory that a large portion of the Heisman voter base is starved to get behind a non-quarterback candidate. Most projection systems fairly rate Alabama as the top team in the nation, but it’s going to take a spectacular season beyond what he did last year to award quarterback Bryce Young a second straight Heisman. That seems unlikely considering Alabama might have the run-heaviest offense it’s employed since the mid-2010s this season. Reports out of training camp are that Gibbs, a Georgia Tech transfer, has been electric both as a runner and receiver. He might just get enough of a workload to be a true threat to win the award, and Alabama might prefer to put its promotional hype behind a new contender.
AAC: Tulsa under 5.5 wins at +115 (BetMGM)
Previous wagers: SMU to win the AAC at 12-to-1
Tulsa lost an army of players to the transfer portal, and that might not have even been its most notable exit. The Golden Hurricanes also lost defensive coordinator Joe Gillespie to TCU. Most of their success in recent years had come on the back of Gillespie’s scheme. This was an easier bet when the total was sitting at 6, but still worth a smaller play at the high plus-priced 5.5.
Conference USA: Charlotte at Florida Atlantic on Saturday over 56.5 points (Caesars/William Hill)
Previous wagers: Louisiana Tech to win the Conference USA at 30-to-1 and North Texas to win the Conference USA at 30-to-1
Both these teams are experienced on offense and green on defense. Charlotte has run an up-tempo, spread offense ever since coach Will Healy arrived in 2019. Florida Atlantic will be transitioning closer to Charlotte’s style this year with the addition of new offensive coordinator Brent Dearmon.
MAC: Akron over 2.5 wins at +105 (SuperBook)
Previous wagers: Toledo to win the MAC at 7-to-2
There’s upheaval every year in the MAC, so it feels like just a matter of time before the perennial conference doormat rises up as a surprise contender. The Zips might be a year or two away from being able to push it that far, but they’re poised to take a step forward with offensive mastermind coach Joe Moorhead stepping in as coach. Moorhead has a raw but explosive quarterback to work with in D.J. Irons.
Mountain West: UNLV -2.5 vs. UNR on Nov. 26 (Golden Nugget)
Previous wagers: Fresno State to win the Mountain West at 3-to-1
New Wolf Pack coach Ken Wilson is starting from scratch after Jay Norvell gutted the roster when he left for the Colorado State job. He’s in just as bad of a position as UNLV coach Marcus Arroyo found himself in two years ago when the Scarlet and Gray went winless. UNLV may not ascend and reach bowl eligibility this year, but it’s at least now got some talent on the roster and players that fit within Arroyo’s scheme.
Sun Belt: James Madison under 6 wins at -130 (SuperBook)
Previous wagers: None
James Madison could have made the leap up to Football Bowl Subdivision from Football Championship Subdivision and been competitive in previous years. But the timing didn’t work out for the Dukes; this is not the year. They’ve had large roster turnover and got the misfortune of landing in the Sun Belt East division, which might house the toughest subset of teams in the Group of Five conferences.
Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or