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Some half-dozen phone calls were critical for Rishi Sunak to secure the Tory party leadership and become Britain’s prime minister, according to senior Conservative party members. All were to Suella Braverman.
Without the support of Braverman, an influential rightwinger, Sunak would have failed to secure the momentum that took him to 10 Downing Street, where he reappointed her home secretary.
It is unknown what the two discussed, but one Home Office insider said: “A deal done was obviously done: ‘back me and I’ll install you back as home secretary’.” Allies of Sunak strongly deny that there was any quid pro quo.
But this week, Conservative MPs have begun to talk about a “devil’s bargain”: Sunak became prime minister, but the price was a volatile home secretary who is damaging the early days of his premiership.
Braverman was sacked by former prime minister Liz Truss for breaking the ministerial code, revealing in a seven-page letter to the Home Affairs select committee that she had used her personal email account to handle sensitive government information on seven occasions. She has been called “Leaky Sue” by Sir Jake Berry, former Tory party chair.
But it is her handling of overcrowding at an asylum processing centre at Manston, Kent that has prompted senior Whitehall figures and Tory MPs to question whether Sunak made an error appointing her.
Some officials have accused the Braverman of exacerbating the situation at Manston by deliberately failing to procure alternative accommodation to ease the overcrowding — accusations that she has denied.
But one official who has worked with Braverman called her “the human hand grenade”.
Some senior Tories believe Sunak had no choice but to put Braverman at the Home Office. “It was Boris [Johnson] as prime minister or Suella [Braverman] as home secretary, simple as that, and the latter is more tolerable than the former,” one minister said.
George Osborne, the former chancellor, said he believed Number 10 had “probably made a calculation” that Braverman would “blow up”.
In an interview with Channel 4, Osborne said he had warned Sunak that he could face collateral damage with the appointment because he was “trying to relaunch the Conservative party as a fresh — not just an economic offer, but an ethical offer”.
Braverman remains unpopular beyond her core base of right-leaning MPs. A survey by the ConservativeHome website of grassroots party members this week reported that she was the fifth-lowest rated member of the Cabinet, with a 20-point net approval rating.
To remedy the concerns surrounding his home secretary, Sunak has installed Robert Jenrick, one of his closest allies, to be her deputy at the Home Office. A centrist Tory and former cabinet minister, Jenrick’s politics are markedly different to Braverman’s.
Crucially Jenrick has the ear and the trust of Number 10. The minister has told friends that he had been put in the Home Office to be “Rishi’s man” with the aim of “instilling a sensible approach to both legal migration, and to relations with the French”.
Many MPs believe Braverman will continue to be dogged by scandals. “I doubt she will be there by the end of the year,” one well-placed Tory aide said. But others think Sunak “cannot afford” to sack her. “She’s his protection against the headbangers,” one Sunak ally said.
If Braverman is forced to quit, there are few candidates who would be credible with the right flank of the party. One former cabinet minister insisted: “It has to be someone who can maintain his credibility with the right.”
The minister added that there were four potential candidates who could work. They include Dominic Raab, the justice secretary; former work and pensions secretary Sir Iain Duncan Smith; Northern Ireland secretary Chris Heaton-Harris; and former home secretary, Priti Patel.
Despite the concerns about Braverman’s future, most MPs have breathed a sigh of relief that the tempo of politics has slowed since Sunak became prime minister, and the party appears to be benefiting from the rapid departure of Truss.
Several opinion polls suggested that Sunak’s appointment had given the Tory party a bounce. Opinium reported that the share of those saying they would vote for the party rose to 28 per cent, shrinking Labour’s lead from 27 to 16 points. Survation reported a four percentage point boost for the Tories, while Redfield and Wilton also saw a small rise in its standing.
One seasoned Tory party insider said summed up the current mood: “This is the first normal government we’ve had since before the referendum. Theresa’s was abnormal, Boris’ was certainly abnormal and Truss was extremely abnormal. But let’s see how long the normality lasts.”
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