The war in Ukraine is expected to expand wheat production in Argentina and Brazil, the primary wheat-producing nations in South America.
Agriculture and consumer economics experts from the University of Illinois say both nations will likely already increase wheat planting this season, which begins in May 2022. The high price of wheat after a significant shock to agricultural commodity markets caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine is an incentive for increased planting of wheat in Argentina and Brazil, as well in the United States.
Argentina is the primary South American producer and exporter of wheat, accounting for about seven percent of the global exports. Brazil, in contrast, is a prominent importer, mainly from Argentina. The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has caused wheat supply and food security concerns for many major wheat importers that depend on Black Sea supplies. In this case, the University of Illinois experts say South American producers may increase supply to African countries.