This year will be the most off of off years for politics. No presidential contest and not even any congressional or gubernatorial races in Wisconsin, unless a special election pops up unexpectedly. But that’s not to say we’ll get a break from politics. Far from it. Here are the big issues to be decided in 2025.
Supreme Court. The biggest race of the year will be the April contest for the open seat on the Wisconsin Supreme Court. This is an ostensibly nonpartisan election, but if conservative (Republican) Brad Schimel defeats liberal (Democrat) Susan Crawford, the conservatives (Republicans) will take back control of the court, which now essentially functions as just another partisan body. In 2023, Janet Protasiewicz crushed her conservative opponent to take the court’s majority for the liberals. But that race hinged on abortion. Moreover, Protasiewicz’s opponent, Daniel Kelly, was a far less competent candidate than Schimel, who has won a previous statewide election for attorney general. The question will be whether Crawford can make this all about abortion again, given that that issue has been more or less decided in favor of reproductive rights. If this race becomes a referendum on Act 10 instead, I’m not so sure how it will go.
Madison school board. There are three seats on the seven member body that are up in April, but as of this writing only one will be contested. Incumbent Laura Simkin is not seeking a new term and there will be at least two candidates for her open seat. Right now, incumbents Nichelle Nicols and Ali Muldrow are running without opposition. The district is plagued with bad test scores, high rates of truancy (they prefer to call it “absenteeism”), a yawning racial achievement gap and, in the last year in which data is available, some 800 police calls to Madison schools. And yet nobody seems to care. An enduring mystery to me.
Madison city council. Talk about under the radar. All 20 seats on the council are up this year. Bet you didn’t know that. It’s not unusual for local races to be low profile, but this year the council races have sunk below the horizon altogether. As of this writing, embattled north side Ald. Charles Myadze has said he will not seek reelection and two candidates have already announced they are running for the seat. Myadze is facing eight criminal charges of sexual abuse. But that’s an isolated issue related to one alder and one seat. I’m not seeing any major themes in the upcoming races.
New police chief. The Shon Barnes era was one of understated competence. Barnes’ abilities were obvious to bigger departments. He was a finalist for chief in Chicago and San Jose and finally in Seattle, to which he is decamping at the end of January. But Barnes never warmed up to Madison, as Isthmus reported back in 2021. It’s not clear if he ever moved his family here and, maybe I’m being oversensitive, but it felt like he was rubbing it in when he said of his new job and city, “My family and I are excited about the opportunity to integrate into Seattle’s vibrant community, known for its diversity, innovation, and resilience.” Barnes showed that it’s not necessary to be a long-term Madisonian to do a good job leading its police force. But it’s likely that the Police and Fire Commission will take community ties into consideration when replacing him, probably sometime in 2025.
Evers’ decision. Sometime this year, Gov. Tony Evers will probably have to decide if he’ll seek a third term in 2026. Evers is the kind of low key Democrat who can win in a purple state like ours and there’s no obvious successor in his party. So, I think it’s fair to say that most Democrats would be content to see his name on the ballot again, but it’s not clear to me which way he’s leaning. I tend to think he’ll go for it one more time, but that’s just a gut instinct.
New Legislature. The Republican majorities have been narrowed, but they’re still substantial. Speaker Robin Vos will maintain a 54-45 advantage in the Assembly while Senate Majority Leader Devin LeMahieu will still be in charge of a comfortable 18-15 lead in his house. Still, the thinner majorities raise the question of how this might change the dynamic, if at all. It could be that the hardest-right members of each Republican caucus will now hold more sway as Vos and LeMahieu can’t afford to lose their votes. Or it could mean that the leaders will need to find votes among Democrats. In other words, things could become even more bitterly partisan, they could become more bipartisan, or they could stay about the same. It’s precisely this kind of sure-footed analysis that you’ve come to expect from the mighty Citizen Dave blog.
The $4 billion question. However the Legislature goes, the biggest question they’ll face is what to do with all the money burning a hole in their pocket as the state sits on a $4 billion surplus. Democrats want to spend it on good stuff while Republicans want to give it back to the taxpayers. Democrats would be okay with some tax cuts as long as they’re weighted to the middle class while Republicans always want to give more back to the wealthiest taxpayers. Last year they couldn’t come to an agreement, so the money stayed in the bank. That could happen again if some delicate balance cannot be struck. My own view is that they should use the cash to supplant borrowing on already planned construction projects. Yeah, that’s boring, but it’s also responsible because it’s using one-time money for one-time purposes and it saves a bunch of money in the long-run in interest payments.
You thought you’d get a break from politics this year, didn’t you? You thought you wouldn’t have to sit through endless awful political attack ads, didn’t you? Well, you were wrong. It’s a democracy, people. Still. And given Donald Trump’s preferences for something else, let’s embrace the choices while we still have them.
Happy New Year.
Dave Cieslewicz is a Madison- and Upper Peninsula-based writer who served as mayor of Madison from 2003 to 2011. You can read more of his work at Yellow Stripes & Dead Armadillos.
