With six weeks left until Inauguration Day, President-elect Donald Trump is poised to reshape the federal government and implement his agenda with the help of a Republican-controlled Congress.
What promises did Trump make to Nevadans across his many campaign visits to the Silver State? Some — such as his pledge to conduct a mass deportation campaign — would affect the entire country but be particularly consequential in Nevada, which has the highest share of undocumented immigrants of any state’s workforce.
Others, such as his promise to end taxation on tips, would require changes to the federal tax code but were clearly intended to be a political motivator in Las Vegas, where Trump first announced the idea and with a massive hospitality industry driven by tip earners.
And he has big plans for federal lands across the Southwest, from increasing drilling to opening up more land for housing, an area of bipartisan interest in Nevada.
No tax on tips
Trump’s most notable pledge — vis-à-vis Las Vegas — was to end federal taxation of tips. Over time, that policy expanded to include overtime pay and Social Security benefits. It’s a rare area of agreement between the president-elect and the Culinary Workers Union Local 226, which represents hospitality workers at properties across Las Vegas and typically supports Democrats.
He has not proposed specific income or industry guardrails — a concern among Nevada Democrats, who worry about executives classifying their bonuses as tips — or explained if such a policy would be categorized as a deduction or an exemption, and apply to income tax, payroll tax or both.
Such a policy change would require an act of Congress and will likely be part of the broader tax package that Republicans are crafting in advance of the coming 2025 expiration of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, Trump’s signature piece of legislation from his first term.
Multiple proposals already exist — both Nevada senators signed on to a bill from Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) that would eliminate federal taxation on cash tips. Rep. Steven Horsford (D-NV), meanwhile, has his own bill, which caps eligibility for the exemption at $112,500 in gross income and pairs the policy with elimination of the subminimum wage for tip earners. But in a Republican trifecta, Horsford’s ability to advance his bill is blocked.
Land for housing
In a September visit to Las Vegas, Trump announced he would “open up large portions of land” to foster housing development and for industry use. His promise was fairly vague, saying the newly available land would have “ultra-low regulations” and linking it to state government efforts to attract the film industry.
The federal government manages about 85 percent of the land in Nevada, and transferring the ownership of that land to developers or state and local entities is a complex process that requires an act of Congress. In the past, Congress has passed lands bills specific to Nevada counties that made various parcels of land eligible for sale at auction — most notably through the Southern Nevada Public Lands Management Act (SNPLMA) of 1998, which drew a circle around the Las Vegas Valley in which the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) could identify and sell public land.
There’s bipartisan interest in making more public lands available specifically for housing. At the delegation level, both Nevada senators have bills that would make new acreage available for sale in Clark and Washoe counties, with the Washoe bill specifying various parcels be sold at below-market rate for affordable housing development.
The Biden administration also streamlined the process by which the state or local governments can purchase parcels within the SNPLMA boundary for affordable housing in 2023. The first sale under the new policy occurred in October, with Clark County purchasing a 20-acre parcel of land from the BLM at the low rate negotiated by the administration for an affordable housing community.
But Gov. Joe Lombardo (R) lamented the policy as too slow moving and urged President Joe Biden to release more federal land for housing.
Trump could attempt to use administrative tools to streamline the lands release process, but any large-scale land transfers would require additional acts of Congress — whether on a county-by-county basis, as Nevada has done, by authorizing the federal government to sell public lands to housing developers, or through a judicial change in how the laws governing federal lands have been interpreted.
Mass deportation
Trump’s pledge to deport millions of undocumented immigrants, if executed, would have a serious impact on Nevada, whose undocumented population is close to 200,000, per the Pew Research Center. Nearly one in 10 Nevada households include an undocumented immigrant, the largest percentage of all states.
Trump’s incoming “Border czar” Tom Homan has pledged that the administration’s initial focus will be on people who have committed crimes and are threats to public safety or national security. Trump has also suggested he could use the military to expand the government’s capacity to identify, detain and deport undocumented immigrants in the numbers he wants.
Homan also said the federal government will set up hotlines for the public to turn in undocumented people in their communities.
Some lawmakers — including Rep. Mark Amodei (R-NV) — have expressed skepticism that the Trump administration can swiftly ratchet up immigration enforcement, at least in the initial year of his term.
Whatever the scale, a large deportation operation would have a significant effect on Las Vegas — where mixed-status families are prevalent. The Migrant Policy Institute estimates that tens of thousands of undocumented immigrants work in key sectors across the state, including in hospitality and construction.
Clean energy incentives
Trump repeatedly promised while campaigning to claw back the “Green New Scam,” his nickname for the climate provisions in the Democratic-passed Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). Through grants and loans, Nevada companies and public entities — lithium and solar industries in particular — have received millions of dollars.
Read More: The Inflation Reduction Act may transform Nevada. Will voters care?
Many Nevada clean-energy companies have taken advantage of tax credits from the law, created in 2022 to be part of the tax code for 10 years. Trump has not been specific about what parts of the law he wants to repeal, although reporting indicates that ending a consumer tax credit for electric vehicle purchases is a priority for the incoming administration.
Repealing the law wholesale may prove difficult in Congress. Several Republicans who voted against the bill — including Amodei — have urged GOP congressional leaders to be cautious in cutting IRA spending, given its benefits in their districts.
Cut energy bills
Across the campaign trail, including in Nevada, Trump pledged to slash energy bills in half by mid-2026. That would be an enormous relief in Nevada, where residents have seen their bills double or even triple in recent years.
To do so, Trump plans to cut regulations and expedite permitting for new oil and gas production, believing that increasing supply will bring costs down. Currently, U.S. oil and gas production is at a record high.
Tariffs
Trump’s signature economic policy platform is to raise tariffs on U.S. trade partners, including an additional 10 percent tariff on China, which is already subject to tariffs, and a 25 percent tax on Canada and Mexico.
Doing so is expected to raise prices on goods imported from those countries.
Per the Governor’s Office of Economic Development, Nevada imported nearly $19 billion worth of goods in 2023, with China, Japan and Taiwan being the top producers of goods for Nevada.
Several key industries in the state import items from target countries, including electrical machinery, solar parts, vegetables and alcohol.
