INDIANAPOLIS — Areas of interest in the Indianapolis Colts’ Sunday meeting with the Tennessee Titans at Nissan Stadium.
*Kickoff: 1 p.m.
*Broadcast: CBS4.
*Spread: Colts by 1.
*History lesson, Part I: The Colts lead the overall series, 36-22, and won the first meeting with the Titans this season, 23-16, at Lucas Oil Stadium. That snapped a five-game losing streak to coach Mike Vrabel’s bunch, which had gotten to be a major sore point with owner Jim Irsay.
The Colts are looking for their first seasonal sweep since 2018, when some guy named Andrew Luck was under center. You long for those days. Luck was 11-0 against the Titans.
The rematch is one of those strength-on-strength situations. The Titans are 4-7, but 4-1 at home. The 6-5 Colts are 2-4 at Lucas Oil Stadium, but 4-1 on the road.
*History lesson, Part II: The Colts’ playoff hopes rest in the hands of quarterback Gardner Minshew II, and he’s on a mini-roll. Minshew is looking to extend his career-best streak of wins as a starter to four straight.
*History lesson, Part III: Indy is in position to post its first four-game winning streak since a pair of five-game streaks in 2018.
*Playoff picture: The Colts enter Sunday 6-5 and in possession of the seventh and final AFC playoff spot. But the jockeying for positioning should be wild over the final six weeks. They’re chasing Pittsburgh (7-4) and Cleveland (7-4) for one of three wild-card berths, and being pursued by Houston (6-5), Denver (6-5) and Buffalo (6-6).
According to the New York Times’ playoff simulator, the Colts’ chances of earning their first postseason spot since 2020 sits at 48%. That jumps to roughly 61% with a win over Tennessee, and dips to 33% with a loss.
*Zack attack: The bad news? The Colts will be without offensive catalyst Jonathan Taylor for 2-3 weeks because he had to have surgery on his right thumb. The good news? They automatically turn to their leading rusher, Zack Moss (a career-high 672 yards, No. 10 in the NFL). The fourth-year back has exceeded expectations since being acquired in a trade with Buffalo in November 2022.
Moss stepped in at the end of last season when Taylor was placed on IR with his right ankle issue and again at the start of this season when Taylor was dealing with a prolonged rehab that coincided with his pursuit of an extension. Over his last 14 games, Moss has piled up 1,006 yards and six touchdowns. He’s averaged 4.8 yards per attempt and recorded his three career 100-yard games.
That includes a career-high 165 yards against the Titans in week 5, which remains the fourth-highest total in the league.
Look for Vrabel’s Titans to make the necessary adjustments in round two versus Moss. Work against the run has been a season-long staple. Well, except for that 165-yard blemish. The next-best effort by a back against the Titans this season was the 88 yards of Pittsburgh’s Jaylen Warren.
From the Colts’ side, how do coach Shane Steichen and offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter maximize Moss without overworking him? Trey Sermon will be Moss’ backup. He’s been on the field for just 43 snaps in nine games and has rushed eight times for 24 yards.
*Henry issue: Since we’re talking about the run game, let’s switch over to Derrick Henry. He’s in the midst of a very un-Henry-like season — 4.2 yards per attempt, 67.2 yards per game — and was limited to 43 yards in week 5, by far his lowest output in 10 starts against Indy.
But Henry is still capable of taking over a game.
And the Colts’ run defense has been substandard — that’s being nice — in the past five games without tackle Grover Stewart. He’ll return for the Dec. 10 trip to Cincinnati, so defensive coordinator Gus Bradley must mix-and-match on the interior one more time.
Again, it’s been a major struggle without Stewart. In the five games without him, the defense has allowed averages of 148.2 yards per game and 4.9 per attempt. In the first six with Stewart complementing DeForest Buckner, the averages were 113.5 and 3.78, respectively.
If the Titans are able to establish the 6-foot-3, 247-pound Henry, they’ll pound away with him all afternoon.
*Levis issue: Will Levis is the Titans’ quarterback of the future, which was evident when they selected him with the first pick of the second round in April’s draft. The future arrived a bit earlier than expected when Tennessee inserted him over veteran Ryan Tannehill Oct. 29 against Atlanta.
Levis enjoyed a remarkable NFL debut by passing for 238 yards, four TDs and a 130.5 rating in a 28-23 win over the Falcons. It’s been rougher sledding in the four ensuing games: a 79.7 rating, 6.5 yards per attempt, 201 yards per game, 58.5 completion percentage. He’s been sacked 13 times, 11 in the last four.
It’s imperative for the Colts to keep Henry on as short a leash as possible and make Levis carry the offense.
And it’s worth noting the defense is cookin’ during the three-game win streak. During that stretch, it’s generated 16 sacks and seven takeaways, and allowed averages of 304.3 yards per game and 4.7 yards per play. Quarterbacks have been harassed from start to finish, which the numbers confirm — a 55.6 rating, 5.8 yards per attempt and 53.6 completion percentage.
*Minshew issue: There’s no denying the enormity of Taylor’s loss. But we’ve always believed the most influential player in the Colts’ playoff push is Minshew. If he plays efficiently and is supported by a reliable run game, there’s every reason to expect a wild-card berth. But if Steichen must lean too heavily on Minshew, everything becomes more difficult.
Stay ahead on the chains. Make the necessary plays when the situation warrants. Above all else, avoid turnovers. The Colts are a plus-2 in turnover ratio. They’re 4-3 with Minshew as their starter, and he’s suffered nine turnovers in the three losses — five interceptions, four lost fumbles — and just two in the four wins.
This isn’t complicated.
*And the winner is: Colts 23, Titans 20. We’re going to be redundant on this the rest of the season. Find a way. It’s probably not going to be easy and often might be hard on the eyes. But the schedule is conducive to taking care of business and earning a playoff spot.
The next step comes in Nashville.
You can follow Mike Chappell on Twitter/X at @mchappell51.
