INDIANAPOLIS — Areas of interest in the latest installment of the I-65 series between the Indianapolis Colts and Chicago Bears Sunday at Lucas Oil Stadium.
Kickoff: 1 p.m.
Broadcast: CBS4.
Spread: Colts by 1.
History lesson, Part I: Facts are facts, which means Sunday is a you’d-better-win game for the 0-2 Colts. Over the past 25 seasons, 129 teams have opened a season 0-3. The only team to regroup and reach the playoffs — the 2018 Houston Texans.
The Colts — Indy or Baltimore variety — have never earned a postseason berth after opening 0-3. Since 1984, they’ve fallen into an 0-3 hole eight times and only twice have finished with a winning record — in 2021 (9-8), when they should have made the playoffs but suffered a late-season meltdown against the Raiders and Jaguars, and 1988 (9-7). Five times an 0-3 start resulted in at least 13 losses.
After just two weeks, the Colts are staring at a fork in the road.
History lesson, Part II: The Colts lead the overall series with the Bears, 25-19, and that includes their signature win of the Indy era. OK, we would argue the 2006 AFC Championship game win over the Patriots represents the defining victory.
But the final step against the Bears brought the Lombardi Trophy to Indy. You remember Super Bowl XLI, right? Prince filling the rainy halftime in South Florida with mesmerizing “Purple Rain?’’ The 29-17 win over the Bears?
Of course you do.
The Colts have won two straight and four of the last six in the series.
Something’s gotta give: We’ll consider this a twist on a long-time scientific paradox. In Sunday’s version, what happens when a moveable object faces a resistible force?
In football jargon, what happens when a historically bad Colts’ run defense — 474 yards in two losses — faces a Bears’ run game that’s managed 96 yards from ballcarriers not named Caleb Williams? The Colts’ total is the most allowed in the first two games of an NFL season since 1978, and the third-most in any two-game stretch in the Colts’ Indy era.
We assume the Bears’ coaching staff has access to video of the first two weeks of the season, so it would be dereliction of duty to not determine if defensive coordinator Gus Bradley has fixed what’s obviously broken. For at least the next four games, that defense will be without cornerstone DeForest Buckner (ankle). Chicago’s offensive line is a mess, and that’s compounded by right guard Nate Davis dealing with a groin injury. Former Colt Matt Pryor might get some work at right tackle in place of Darnell Wright.
D’Andre Swift is averaging 2.0 yards on 48 carries, but let’s not forget, last season in Philadelphia, he rushed for 1,049 yards, averaged 4.6 yards per carry and was selected to the Pro Bowl. And Williams (a team-leading 59 yards) is a threat if the Colts lose containment.
It’s virtually impossible to play competent defense if a team can’t handle the run. The 53 attempts by the Packers last week were the most the Colts had faced since 2003.
Bottom line: This is an opportunity for Bradley’s group to get better. Williams is getting very little help and the No. 1 overall pick in the draft is operating an offense that ranks No. 31 in yards per game (176.5), No. 32 in yards per play (3.0) and passing yards per game (99.0) and No. 28 in rushing per game (77.5) and No. 29 in rushing yards per attempt (3.5).
One more. The Bears have one offensive TD in two games: Khalil Herbert’s 2-yard run last week in Houston.
Offensive consistency: This isn’t complicated. Really, it isn’t. Running back Jonathan Taylor is the Colts’ best offensive player. Management confirmed that 12 months ago when it signed him to a three-year, $42 million extension. It believed Taylor would help ease the load of a still-developing Anthony Richardson by being a force in the run game.
So, allow Taylor to earn his keep. And that means giving him more than the 12 carries (for 103 yards) he had last week in Green Bay, and it most certainly means getting him on the field in the fourth quarter.
Yes, Taylor is a liability in pass protection. We get it. But he’s also capable of breaking a 20-yard run against a softer defense when the Colts switch to a pass-heavy mode and is a legitimate catch-and-run threat. When he’s not dropping two passes, of course.
We’re expecting a busy afternoon for Taylor against a Bears’ defense that’s giving up 4.5 yards per attempt.
Offensive consistency, Part II: The return of wideout Josh Downs is huge. The Colts’ slot receiver missed the first two games with an ankle sprain, but his absence was felt. Downs represents an intermediate catch-and-and run option for Richardson. Occasionally, that might be a chunk play. Often, it should be a move-the-chains play.
The Richardson-led offense hasn’t lacked pop. It ranks No. 3 in yards per play (6.7) No. 1 in yards on first down (8.44). Richardson is averaging 7.8 yards per attempt, ninth-best. There have been 15 “explosive plays’’: five completions of at least 20 yards and 10 runs that have gained at least 10, five each from Taylor and Richardson.
It will be interesting to see how Steichen’s desire to push the football down the field fares against a Matt Eberflus defense designed to limit chunk plays by generally keeping its safeties deep.
The problem has been a lack of efficiency. The Colts have converted just 9-of-23 times on third and fourth down. There were four or five dropped passes at Green Bay as well as an illegal formation penalty, and Quenton Nelson holds that wiped out a 16-yard Taylor run and 15-yard Alec Pierce reception. Richardson is completing 49.1% of his passes (No. 32) and has suffered four interceptions, tied for most in the league.
Add that to the defense’s inability to get off the field, and you’ve got the Colts averaging 19:55 of possession time.
None of that is sustainable.
And the winner is: Colts 16, Bears 10. The score worked for the Packers. This is one of those find-a-way games. The Colts have offered little reason for optimism, and that includes coaches or players. It won’t be easy against Eberflus’ defense, but Richardson and Taylor must find a way.
You can follow Mike Chappell on Twitter/X at @mchappell51.
