There have been plenty of tropical disturbances in the Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico recently and several of them named, but the current weather pattern should keep Mississippi safe from tropical storms and hurricanes — at least for now.
“We really shouldn’t have any impact from what’s out there currently,” said Eric Carpenter, meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Jackson. “The way the currents are now, they’re being drawn northward through the Atlantic.
“They’re going to stay east of the United States. We’re definitely safe from those systems.”
Currently, there are two disturbances in the Atlantic Ocean along with Tropical Storm Franklin, which is tracking north. The remnants of Tropical Storm Harold are dissipating over Texas and Mexico.
According to Carpenter, Mississippi will see no effects from the remnants of Harold, either — not even rain.
“We will not, unfortunately,” Carpenter said. “We definitely need some rain.”
So, don’t expect any impacts from any of those systems.
“At least for the next couple of weeks, the patterns do not support tropical systems in our area,” Carpenter said.
But what about beyond that?
Conditions are favorable for hurricanes
Mississippi is experiencing an El Niño weather pattern that is generally unfavorable for hurricanes. Upper level winds in that pattern tend to disrupt hurricane development and strengthening.
However, according to NOAA, those limiting conditions have been slow to develop and climate scientists are forecasting that the associated impacts that tend to limit tropical cyclone activity may not be in place for much of the remaining hurricane season.
Also, NOAA has forecasted 14 to 21 named storms, six to 11 hurricanes with two to five of those being major. So far, there have only been eight named storms in the Atlantic and Gulf and there are more than three months remaining in the 2023 hurricane season.
Another concerning factor is heat.
“With all the extreme warmth we’ve had this summer, the temperature in the oceans is a little higher than normal,” Carpenter said. “The hurricanes, they rely on ocean water heat as a source of energy. It can provide a source of fuel to form a hurricane, maintain a hurricane and intensify a hurricane.”
NOAA is urging everyone in vulnerable areas to have a well-thought hurricane plan and to stay informed through official channels for the remainder of hurricane season, which ends Nov. 30.
Remaining names for the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season:
- Idalia
- Jose
- Katia
- Lee
- Margot
- Nigel
- Ophelia
- Philippe
- Rina
- Sean
- Tammy
- Vince
- Whitney
Hurricane tracker: Updates on the path of every storm
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