The 1983 NFL draft is widely considered the best in league history, at least in the Super Bowl era, with 25% of the 28 first-round selections enshrined in the Pro Football Hall of Fame.
That class is best known for producing six quarterbacks in the first round, the only time that had happened until this year, when six QBs not only were selected in Round 1 but came off the board in the first 12 picks.
The arms race never has been more heated, with the have-nots willing to do seemingly anything to solve their dilemma. How else do you explain the Cleveland Browns trading six draft picks in 2022 for Deshaun Watson and one pick and signing him to a $230 million fully guaranteed contract? Or make sense of the Carolina Panthers paying a ransom plus some to Ryan Poles and the Chicago Bears for the No. 1 pick in 2023 and a shot at Bryce Young?
The Bears still are benefiting from that trade, and perhaps the greatest piece from the deal will be quarterback Caleb Williams, the No. 1 pick this year.
The Bears’ 1983 draft class, which included Hall of Famers Jimbo Covert and Richard Dent, laid the foundation for the Super Bowl XX champions. If the Bears hit with Williams — really hit — this class could be even more transformational with even modest contributions from the other members. Of course, much more is expected from players such as wide receiver Rome Odunze, the No. 9 pick.
Quarterbacks John Elway, Dan Marino and Jim Kelly headlined the 1983 draft class. Ken O’Brien passed for more than 25,000 yards in a 10-year career, and Tony Eason was on the wrong side of the field in Super Bowl XX.
Three of the six first-round QBs in 2024 will start season openers Sunday: Williams, the Washington Commanders’ Jayden Daniels (No. 2) and the Denver Broncos’ Bo Nix (No. 12). The New England Patriots are playing Jacoby Brissett ahead of Drake Maye (No. 3). The Atlanta Falcons drafted Michael Penix (No. 8) to have him study behind Kirk Cousins, and the Minnesota Vikings’ J.J. McCarthy (No. 10) was lost for the year to a preseason knee injury.
It’s worth wondering what benchmarks rookies can hit in the first month as evidence the developmental process is off to a good start — not checking statistical boxes but showing signs the game is slowing down a little.
The Tribune spoke with personnel executives from four teams and one offensive coordinator to get their thoughts on what the Bears will want to see from Williams.
1. Don’t turn the ball over.
It’s so simple but it simply can’t be ignored. Turnover margin is the No. 1 statistic coaches preach every game, and it extends beyond making risky passes. Does the QB have good ball security inside the pocket? Are his hands strong? Does he hold the ball close to his body?
“The walls are going to close around them so much faster than they ever did in college,” the coordinator said.
2. How does he handle situational football?
The two biggest subcategories are third down and the red zone, the latter of which the Bears spent an inordinate amount of time on throughout training camp.
“When I say third down, it’s the blitz packages, sorting it out presnap, getting the offense in the right play, getting it in the right protection, command,” Personnel Man A said. “Is he comfortable in that moment? I’m talking just third down — that’s the money down — but that spills over to the base downs as well.
“And then is the ball coming out relatively on time? Does he know where to go with it? Or is it just kind of a (mess) and he’s running around and holding on to the ball and taking sacks? … Can he put the offense in a good position to have success?
“If he airmails a ball or misses a location incomplete and you’re off the field on third down and you’re like, ‘Damn!’ But if he went to the right place, the ball came out on time and he saw it clean and got the line in the right protection, you’re OK with that. If he’s making plays with all of that — and you want him to do that — it’s icing on the cake. Just handling everything that is being thrown at him because preseason is like playing in a bowl game or an all-star game.”
3. Can he avoid critical errors when challenged?
“How does it look when he’s facing a defensive head coach or a veteran defensive coordinator with a long track record for success?” Personnel Man B said. “Those savvy, older coaches are going to see a rookie and believe there is blood in the water: ‘I’m going to throw him everything I’ve got — (stuff) he’s never even seen before. We’re going to invert coverage and bring this guy. I’m going to have this guy’s head spinning in the first three series and we’re going to have the game won. He’s going to be looking at his tablet like there’s 15 defensive guys on the field.’”
This circles back to No. 2 — the quarterback needs to avoid costly mistakes that can swing momentum or lead to points for the opponent. That requires the quarterback to be calm in the face of pressure and understand where his outlet, hot read or check-down is and live to play another down.
“You can control the game plan,” Personnel Man C said. “Get the run game going, keep it on your terms, play action, max protect it for him, keep it simple. You’re not throwing him to the wolves. You try to give him easy answers. That being said, he’s still got to pass the test.”
4. Play with poise.
This is subjective, but you don’t want to feel like it’s too much for the rookie, and the coaching staff has to go out of its way to protect him as the season unfolds.
“First quarter-pole of the season, first four games, you’re realistically asking yourself, ‘Can we go 2-2 and he can handle the situations (well), can he play with poise?’ ” Personnel Man C said. “Is he going to throw picks? Absolutely. But is he going to throw a pick in the red zone that takes three points off the board? Is he going to throw a pick-six because he’s late over the middle? Is he going to commit the cardinal sins?
“If he doesn’t and it’s clean but he misses spots and throws incompletions, goes 16 of 28 and loses but it was clean from a mental standpoint, you’re like, ‘OK, all right.’ But the clock is ticking. Five games in, you’re like, ‘OK, got to make your throws.’”
The personnel men were impressed by what they saw from Williams in the preseason, but they don’t put a ton of stock in film until the games count.
“Unbelievable highlights for Caleb,” Personnel Man D said. “That was him in college. … (Patrick) Mahomes is the easy one as a comp, but can Caleb play in the pocket? Mahomes can play within structure. He’s poised and within the structure and on time, and then every couple series, all of a sudden the rabbit gets pulled out of the hat and you’re like, ‘Oh, my God, he can do this too?’
“Is Caleb going to be able to do that, or is it going to be everything that is off schedule? Having said all that, that was Russell Wilson.”
Said the offensive coordinator: “We all know Williams is a natural creator outside the pocket and can do a lot of things that can’t be coached. The things that he can be coached, he needs to do. That’s where everyone’s questions lie. At least that is where mine would be.”
Scouting report
Jeffery Simmons, Titans defensive tackle
Information for this report was obtained from an NFL scout.
Simmons, 6-foot-4, 305 pounds, is in his sixth season after the Titans selected him 19th in 2019 despite the fact he tore an ACL less than three months earlier.
The move paid off as Simmons has been a stalwart in the middle of the defense. He was named to the Pro Bowl twice and is a two-time second-team All-Pro. He has 26½ career sacks with a career-high 8½ in 2021, and the Titans signed him to a four-year, $94 million extension in April.
“He’s the most underrated player in the NFL. No question,” the scout said. “If he played in New York or Chicago or Dallas, are you kidding me? He would be talked about as one of the best players in the league. That’s what he is. He’s underrated because he plays in a smaller market. He hasn’t played for a team that has been competing for championships. He hasn’t played in top-level defenses. But if you put this guy anywhere right now, he is the best defensive tackle. With Aaron Donald out of the league, he is the best.
“He’s an interior disruptor. He creates consistent chaos. He can be stout and aggressive versus the run. He’s an interior pass rusher you have to account for on every snap. Incredible upper-body strength. Great footwork. Lateral juice and he is violent and nasty. That’s the guy I want on my team. He’s a bad dude on the field. Those are the guys that are so difficult to find.”
