The forecast theme in the near term is “tale of two seasons.” That’s because in the days ahead, we’ll talk about temperatures 15-18° above normal before quickly dropping to 5-10° below normal. We have a strong upper-level low that will push through Central Indiana midweek, giving us the coldest air since February. Additionally, it’ll give Indianapolis the chance to see its first freeze and first snowflakes of the season.
Warmer first Sunday into early next week
If you enjoyed the weather on Saturday with highs in the 50s, you’ll enjoy what’s on tap starting Sunday. The weekend ends dry with more sunshine at times. Forecast highs Sunday are around 60° with even warmer times following. Both Monday and Tuesday call for highs surging into the mid-to-upper 60s around here. A stray rain chance exists overnight early Monday but the highest chances for this period will be Monday night into Tuesday.
With this rain, our wind speed will pick up and stay that way for days. I anticipate at times through Thursday, winds may gust 30-40 MPH. These days will also be the end of our warm stretch. It’s no secret we’ve been mild not only this month so far, but the season and the year overall when average temperature is taken into effect.
Midweek system brings cold, snowflake chances and first freeze
Just to put this clear as possible… it’s increasingly likely parts of Indiana will see its first snowflakes of the season. This complex system will be rushing in colder, Canadian air quickly after the passage of a cold front Wednesday into Thursday. Temperatures will tumble and winds will pick up. If that cold air rushes in quick enough, that rain could mix with snow late Wednesday and Thursday.
Disclaimer: If you see any model snowfall forecasts anywhere on social media, don’t follow those. It’s always with the first snow of the year where the numbers are overdone quite often. Plus, we’ll be incredibly warm right before the front. It’s much too early to talk specifics. The timing though, as mentioned for rain and snow to mix in will be late Wednesday and Thursday.
The pictures below are one model output and not a forecast. It shows the rain for later Wednesday into Thursday with snow possibly mixing in. It will also be blustery with the northwest winds rushing in. This will be a wake-up call but it always is for the first cooler blast of the season.
Precip chances with this system end late Thursday and into early Friday. Expect high temperatures both Thursday and Friday in the upper 30s to near 40°. It’s possible lows could approach 32°, which would be a first for the Circle City so far. The latest first freeze in more than 100 years.
