A gambler counts out cash for his 2019 Super Bowl proposition bets at the Westgate SuperBook Thursday, Jan. 24, 2019.
Thursday, Nov. 24, 2022 | 2 a.m.
Six Week 12 point spreads opened exactly on my number for the game. Five others were within a half-point.
That’s as much agreement as I can ever remember early in the week for an NFL slate. But fear not, the pick’em will proceed.
Even with the initial consensus, that still left five games on a full schedule — no teams get a bye during Thanksgiving week — with differences of at least a point. And some other lines have since moved into betting range with other situational and matchup intricacies directing my handicaps despite quantitative accord.
The NFL sides betting market always gets tighter as the season progresses, with gamblers beginning to work with the virtually the same set of data once sample sizes get large enough. Week 12 just might be this year’s turning point towards that typical late-season trend.
It might take a little more to find winning bets going forward but that’s not something that’s going to scare me away. Let’s unabashedly go for a third consecutive winning overall week and fifth straight winning week on plays.
Read on for picks on every Week 12 game. Picks are separated into three confidence categories and listed in rough order of confidence. Lines are the best currently available in Las Vegas on the chosen side. The overall record now stands at 86-73-4 after going 8-6 overall last week.
Plays (24-21-4)
Atlanta Falcons +4.5 at Washington Commanders The time has come to sell high on the Commanders, which have been unsustainably lucky from a turnover perspective. They’ve committed far more turnover-worthy plays than have actually materialized and have also recovered an NFL-leading 66.6% of fumbles.
Tennessee Titans +1.5 vs. Cincinnati Bengals The beaten-up Titans should get healthier with an extra three days to rest off a 27-17 Thursday Night Football victory over the Packers as 3-point underdogs. They’ve already been far undervalued when nowhere near full strength, having covered eight straight contests— and winning all but one outright — by an average of 7.5 points per game.
Green Bay Packers +7 at Philadelphia Eagles The NFL has been so tightly-contested this year that there should only be spreads of more than a touchdown between games that pit one of the league’s best against one of the league’s worst. Philadelphia certainly belongs in the former category but Green Bay, despite its disappointing season, still isn’t within the latter group.
Cleveland Browns +3.5 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Both teams have nearly identical net yards per play — the Buccaneers are at +0.1 to the Browns’ -0.1 — despite Cleveland facing a significantly tougher schedule. The opening price of Tampa Bay -3 was fair but there’s no reason for the extra hook.
Leans (28-34)
Las Vegas Raiders +3.5 at Seattle Seahawks The Seahawks’ two biggest weaknesses have been defending the run and slowing top receivers. That’s a big problem against the Raiders because, despite their struggles, both running back Josh Jacobs and wide receiver Davante Adams are having All-Pro caliber seasons.
Detroit Lions +10 vs. Buffalo Bills Getting the 10 is essential here in the Thanksgiving Day opener, as all signs point toward the Bills notching an easy victory — just not necessarily one by double digits. Buffalo’s rash of defensive injuries — standouts are out on every level — remain a concern, especially against an above-average offense like Detroit’s.
New England Patriots +3 at Minnesota Vikings Injuries to star left tackle Christian Darrisaw have occurred at the absolute worst time for the Vikings. Dallas sacked Minnesota quarterback Kirk Cousins seven times in last week’s 40-3 victory as 1.5-point favorites, and New England is the only team in the NFL close to the Cowboys in pressure rate, sitting in second at 29.8%.
Jacksonville Jaguars +4 vs. Baltimore Ravens They’ve buried themselves too far to make a realistic run at the postseason, but the Jaguars — equipped with a positive point differential — have shown flashes throughout the year of being playoff-worth squad. Coming out of a bye week might be the best opportunity to sustain it for a whole game.
San Francisco 49ers -9 vs. New Orleans Saints The 49ers have a clear personnel edge, but they hold just as large of an advantage on the sideline. San Francisco coach Kyle Shanahan should be able out-scheme New Orleans coach Dennis Allen even more thoroughly than this number suggests.
Guesses (34-18)
Los Angeles Chargers -4.5 at Arizona Cardinals The Cardinals look like a mess, and the numbers back that assessment up as they’ve slipped to No. 31 in the NFL by Football Outsiders’ DVOA ratings, ahead of only the Houston Texans. The Chargers, meanwhile, seem to be improving as they battled and covered against both the 49ers and Chiefs the last two weeks despite losses.
Indianapolis Colts -2.5 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Pittsburgh has shown progress in recent weeks, but still rates dead-last in the NFL at -1.1 net yards per play. That makes the market move in its favor — the number opened at a fairer Indianapolis -3 price — all the more surprising.
New York Jets -4.5 vs. Chicago Bears This is a fair number if Bears quarterback Justin Fields plays. But there’s no guarantee of that with Fields nursing a shoulder injury, and if he’s unable to go, the Jets should be closer to a touchdown favorite.
Houston Texans +13 at Miami Dolphins Five of Miami’s seven wins have come by less than seven points, and only one of them came by more than this point spread. Houston’s secondary is at least competent, another reason why it won’t get blown away by Miami’s big-play receiving corps.
Dallas Cowboys -9 vs. New York Giants The Cowboys seem likely to get positive injury news before kickoff that could reasonably send this spread shooting towards -10. This is therefore just locking in what could turn into a value price in a game where I have no strong opinion.
Kansas City Chiefs -14.5 vs. Los Angeles Rams The Rams have faced an extremely forgiving slate of opposing quarterbacks. That changes this week with MVP favorite Patrick Mahomes, who no one should be going out of the way to fade with the rhythm he’s in at the moment.
Carolina Panthers +2.5 vs. Denver Broncos Not only is Denver perhaps the most disappointing team in the league but it’s also running out of players with one of the NFL’s lengthiest injury lists. All the absences have deeply cut down the talent gap between these two teams.
Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or