The 2023 NFL draft is still a long way off, but that’s never going to stop us from looking into the future and trying to project how the first round of next year’s draft could shake out.
After a draft that saw just one quarterback selected in the first round in 2022, the 2023 class appears to have no shortage of promising passers who could end up warranting a top-32 selection.
How will the game’s most important position stack up to the other groups in next year’s draft class? Will the top overall prospect take a back seat at the No. 1 overall pick to the best quarterback on the board?
Here are our updated first-round projections for the 2023 NFL draft:
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If the Texans are picking this high, it’s likely the Davis Mills experiment didn’t go well. Stroud has all the tools to be a franchise passer at the next level, and has already put up huge numbers against top competition.
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The Falcons may have landed their quarterback of the future in Desmond Ridder, which should free them up to take the best overall prospect in this draft. Anderson is a dominant pass rusher who could challenge for the Heisman Trophy this year.
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The Seahawks don’t have a starting-caliber quarterback on their roster after trading away Russell Wilson, and finding one will be their top priority next offseason. Young might be undersized, but he’s still got all the mental and physical traits to be a franchise passer.
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Even with all the Georgia defenders who went in the first round of the 2022 draft, Carter might be the best prospect of them all. He’s the kind of dominant interior presence who could be worthy of a top-five pick.
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The Lions punted on the 2022 quarterback class, likely hoping to land a better prospect at the top of next year’s draft. Ward looked like he was playing NCAA Football 14 on rookie mode at Incarnate Word, and if he can do anything similar in the Pac-12, he could easily end up warranting a top-five pick.
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The Panthers might have stolen a quality starting quarterback in Matt Corral, but he could use another dynamic pass-catcher to pair with D.J. Moore. Smith-Njigba is the next elite receiver prospect to come out of Columbus, and might be the best we’ve seen in a while.
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This pick is a bit of a projection, as Bresee missed most of last season due to injury. But the Jaguars could use a dominant, disruptive force for the interior of their defensive line, and Bresee has all the traits to be that kind of presence at full strength.
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This pick has to be used to help Justin Fields, whether it’s a franchise left tackle or a true No. 1 receiver. With Smith-Njigba already off the board, the Bears opt for the former in Johnson, who has been tested against some of the best edge defenders in the nation.
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The Giants declined the fifth-year option on Daniel Jones’ contract, so barring massive improvement from the former top-10 pick this season, the Giants will be looking for his replacement here. Richardson has been banged up, but has top-shelf physical traits and limitless potential when healthy.
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Offensive tackle is another big need, but it wouldn’t be surprising for the Steelers to prefer to pass rusher in the first round. Murphy is an explosive edge defender who would pair nicely with T.J. Watt.
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Depending on how the 2022 season plays out, the Commanders could end up needing an long-term upgrade at left tackle. Skoronski has the power, athleticism and toughness to be an immediate upgrade at a premium position for Washington.
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Adam Thielen turns 32 in August, so the Vikings could be looking for a long-term running mate for Justin Jefferson. Boutte is a well-rounded pass-catcher with the athleticism and physicality to be the perfect successor to Minnesota’s aging veteran.
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Bill Belichick’s defense is at its best when it has a smart, tough, athletic linebacker running the show from the middle. Sewell checks all of those boxes, and would allow the Pats to continue their youth movement and overhaul on defense.
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James Bradberry was a huge addition this offseason, but Darius Slay will turn 32 in January, which means the Eagles could still be targeting a young understudy who could become a No. 1 corner. A transfer from LSU, Ricks could be the latest Alabama defensive back to come off the board in the first round.
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There may be bigger needs elsewhere, but if an explosive playmaker like Addison is still on the board here, it wouldn’t be surprising to see head coach Josh McDaniels pound the table for him. Adding Addison to Davante Adams, Darren Waller and Davante Adams would be huge for Derek Carr.
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Jaelan Phillips has a promising future, but the Dolphins need another young, explosive edge rusher to pair him with. Ojulari racked up seven sacks and 11.5 tackles for loss as a sophomore in 2021, and is primed for even more this year.
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This offense desperately needs a complete tight end who can help clear the road for Derrick Henry in the run game, but also challenge defenses as a receiving thread. Mayer checks all of those boxes, and is a red-zone machine.
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Since losing Patrick Peterson, the Cardinals have lacked a true shutdown corner who can matchup with top receivers on the outside. Ringo proved his big-play ability and ball skills last year, capping off a strong 2021 campaign with a pick-six that sealed the national title.
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After adding an athletic playmaker at corner earlier in the first round, the Eagles double-dip in the secondary here. Moore is a versatile ballhawk who would bring much-needed big-play ability to the back end of Philly’s defensive backfield.
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The Colts spent the 2022 draft building around Matt Ryan, but next year, they should think about drafting his eventual successor. Levis still needs to show improved development this season, but the flashes he’s displayed up to this point carry potential first-round promise.
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The Bengals did a solid job of reloading their biggest areas of need this offseason (offensive line, secondary), so next year’s top pick could be used on an athletic, versatile defender for the front seven. Simpson would be the perfect fit, thanks to his ability to make big plays in every phase of the game.
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Lamar Jackson already needed more weapons for the passing game, and that was before the Ravens traded away Marquise Brown. Johnston is a big-play machine who brings the size and athleticism this offense needs.
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Houston reloaded their secondary with top talent in the 2022 draft, but Lovie Smith’s defense doesn’t work if the front four can’t get consistent pressure. Foskey has a well-rounded skill set that would allow him to flourish in this scheme, and he would make an immediate impact.
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The rebuild continues for the Dallas offensive line, as they land Nelson, who could have been a fairly early pick in this year’s draft. He could start at right tackle, allowing 2022 first-round pick Tyler Smith to remain as a dominant guard.
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The Seahawks landed one stud pass rusher this year in second-round pick Boye Mafe, but they could use another one next year. Smith may have been overshadowed by other superstars on the Bulldogs’ dominant defense last year, but 2022 will give him a chance to shine.
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When you have multiple first-rounders, you can afford a bit of a luxury pick, especially when the value is this good. Robinson looks like a top-10 overall prospect, but even the best running backs tend to slide on draft day. He would be an immediate superstar in Mike McDaniel’s offense.
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Justin Herbert already has a talented pair of pass-catchers in Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, but he could use another big-play threat who can challenge defenses with the deep ball. Downs is an explosive receiver who can turn every catch into a touchdown.
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The Lions have some serviceable starters at corner, but they’re still looking for a true shutdown artist who can lead the whole group. The son of another dominant NFL defender, Porter has all the ingredients to make a similar impact at the next level.
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Yes, the Packers traded up in the second round of this year’s draft for Christian Watson, but that shouldn’t stop them from giving Aaron Rodgers another explosive receiver early in next year’s draft. Mims is undersized, but makes up for it with his big-play ability.
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Another offensive line that has been improved, but still could use more help, the Chiefs land a talented tackle prospect that should benefit from an extra year at the college level.
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The Bills have one of the NFL’s best safety tandems right now, but thank could change next offseason, if they’re not able to keep Jordan Poyer from hitting free agency. A transfer from Northwestern, Joseph has the athleticism, instincts and versatility to be the ideal replacement.
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The Bucs have two starting corners (Jamel Dean, Sean Murphy-Bunting) and one starting safety (Mike Edwards) on the final year of their rookie contracts. Catalon is a versatile defender who can line up all over the secondary, with the athleticism to make big plays in coverage, and the physicality to mix it up in the box.
