As we get closer to the 2024 general election, we can anticipate that there will be an increasing large number of polls conducted. So far, our anticipation has been handsomely rewarded. It seems that every week there is a new poll about this or that.
At best, polls are snapshots about how people feel about issues at the time that the polls are taken. They may not reflect the outcome, especially in situations when the results are close and there are many undecideds.
Still, polls do provide insights as to where we are, what the likely outcomes may be, and what to do to either enhance the current positions or reverse them. It is with this mindset that we look at recent polls taken by Noble Predictive Insights regarding three major ballot measures, and find some interesting trends.
PROPOSITION 135
Proposition 135 is interesting because it shows some unexpected results. It is easy to understand why democrats oppose this measure because in 2025 we will have a democrat governor and possibly a republican legislative majority. Under those conditions, democrats are likely to want the governor to retain as many dictatorial powers as possible.
What is not so easy to understand is why only 39% of republicans favor Proposition 135 and 30% are not sure.
It should be noted that Proposition 135 creates a balance to the current powers that the legislature has given the governor. It limits the powers of the governor in line with the concept of separation of powers. If this measure is approved by the voters, the governor will still retain the power to declare emergencies, but would be limited in his ability to abuse that power. This is a conservative/republican point of view, illustrated by the fact when the state legislature passed it via HCR2039, not a single democrat voted in favor of it.
One possible explanation for the apparent lack of support by republicans is that some republicans have been claiming that Proposition 135 increases the power of the governor, which is a position contrary to the text of the proposition. The best way to understand this measure is to read all 7 pages of it at HCR2039-2023 but the key language that sets forth the limits to the governor’s power is contained in this excerpt.
- If any emergency powers are authorized by state law to be granted to the governor during a state of emergency, unless such powers are for a state of war emergency or an emergency arising from a flood or fire, the emergency powers granted to the governor terminate either:…
PROPOSITION 137
This measure appears to be headed for defeat, even though passing it would be a move toward a state government more in line with the principles of a republic with a distinct separation of powers. Under that system, we have three distinct branches of government. The legislature makes laws, the executive applies laws, and the judiciary interprets laws. While the legislative and executive branches are clearly designed to be political by having their members face election regularly, the judiciary is intended to be apolitical. In other words, the judiciary merely interprets the laws as written, regardless of how unpopular their decisions may be. The current situation, that makes judiciary members subject to retention by votes of the people, is contrary to that concept.
When the Arizona legislature passed SCR1044, which created Proposition 137, not a single democrat legislator voted in favor. However, the only voter support for this measure is coming from democrats, albeit by the very small margin of 3 points.
What seems to be fueling this counter-intuitive behavior by republicans is a series of recent decisions by the courts that were not popular with them. If this mindset remains unchanged, Proposition 137 will be defeated handily. As usual, it is advisable to read the proposition itself before deciding which way to vote on it. That may be done by going to SCR1044-2024
PROPOSITION 314
This proposition is headed for overwhelming approval by the voters. Even democrat voters are in favor of Proposition 314 by 52% to 23%, a huge margin of 29 points. This is evidence that when the stakes are high and the people are well informed, even democrats break away from their state leadership and support what is right.
The democrat leadership is totally out of sync on this one. During its progress through the state legislature, HCR2060, which created Proposition 314, received zero support from the democrat caucus. The Biden/Harris administration continues to insist that all is well at our southern border. But rank-and-file democrat voters apparently know better and want real immigration reform, not just talk.
These are some of the highlights of Proposition 314
- Makes it a crime for aliens to enter the United States at any point other than a lawful point of entry
- Makes it easier to deport violators of immigration laws
- Strengthens the lawful-presence requirements to qualify for public benefits and employment eligibility
- Increases the penalties for selling lethal fentanyl
Apparently, enough voters have read the text of Proposition 314 by going to HCR2060-2024 and concluded that it is indeed a good thing.
REGARDING ALL PROPOSITIONS
One useful tool that is often overlooked when deciding whether to support or oppose ballot measures is the legislative analyses of these measures. Whether voters ultimately agree or disagree with each individual analysis, the material contained therein should be very helpful. Legislative analyses may be accessed by going to https://www.azleg.gov/ballot-measures-2024-analyses/
