Updated, May 29, 2:45 PM
Washoe combined mail and in-person so far:
GOP: 3,330
Dem: 3,992
And here are some returned mail ballots from the rurals as of Friday evening, via a campaign source (the other numbers here so far are from official sources):
3,071 GOP
3,069 DEM
It’s way too early to tell for sure, but these early numbers might indicate some hesitancy among Republicans to vote by mail. We will know more as Clark mail ballots pour in this week and as early voting progresses.
More numbers when I get them…
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Welcome to the early voting blog, a tradition like no other.
Doing this kind of analysis for a primary is much different – and much more problematic – than doing it for a general, where partisan voting patterns can lead to inescapable conclusions. It is even more difficult this year because it is the first midterm primary where mail balloting will be prolific, if not dominant. (The law passed in 2021, after pandemic-affected elections in 2020, mandated every voter be sent a mail ballot.)
The only number I feel confident reporting to kick things off is that only 5,490 people voted in person in Clark on the first day, which is statistically insignificant to make any projections. There were 2,554 Republicans and 2,390 Democrats. I will report mail ballots returned – there are thousands already in Washoe and they will be coming in soon in Clark (only 138 so far) – and partisan breakdowns when I get them. I’ll also report totals from the rurals when I get them, too.
Remember, too, that early voting is kicking off on a holiday weekend, which also could reduce totals. And it’s always harder to get information on any weekend from official authorities, although some are better than others.
Let’s set some baseline assumptions, which I reserve the right to change during the 14 days of early voting (but I will dutifully inform you if I do):
First, I expect Republican turnout to be much higher than Democratic turnout. There are few major races with high-profile or competitive primaries – lieutenant governor is the one exception and who gets excited to turn out for THAT? So with major primaries for governor and U.S. Senate, not to mention other constitutional offices having races, the Republicans should have more robust turnout. I caution, though, as I always do, that primary turnout is almost never a harbinger of general election turnout. Two different universes separated by six months of unpredictable events/trends. (in 2014, the last red wave year in Nevada, primary turnout was 19 percent.)
Second, the lower the turnout, the more likely weird things could happen. Joey Gilbert, for example, has the support of a fringe group of Republicans who probably will turn out. Joe Lombardo has broader support, so theoretically would benefit from a larger turnout. Same could be true down the ballot for the likes of Sigal Chattah for AG and Jim Marchant for SOS.
Third, predicting what the turnout will be is problematic. Usually I can use a past election as a baseline. For example, in 2010, with a multiway primary for the right to face Harry Reid, GOP turnout was abnormally high: 44 percent. I don’t sense quite the enthusiasm for this year’s primaries. But 2010 was not an election where it was so easy to vote – i.e. everyone has a mail ballot or will soon. During the pandemic in 2020, nearly 500,000, or 30 percent of the state’s voters, cast ballots. But this may not be apples to apples because there are more GOP primaries of interest this cycle. And we still don’t know how many GOP voters will be affected by the continued harping by GOP elected officials and candidates about the perils of mail voting.
I’ll update this blog with numbers as soon as I get them every day. And I’ll include any analysis based on the numbers and what the campaigns are saying.
If you have any questions, feel free to email me at [email protected].
