Ten things to know about Regionals for Miss. State, Southern Miss

Can Mississippi State and Southern Miss baseball teams win tough regional tournaments on the road this weekend and advance to the NCAA Super Regionals? Glad you asked.

Answer: Of course, they can. But it will not be easy, especially where Southern Miss is concerned.

The Golden Eagles, winners of 14 of their last 15 and the Sun Belt Conference Tournament championship, were sent to overall No. 1 seed Tennessee at Knoxville. It’s not a baseball death sentence, but it’s whatever comes closest.

State, which had hopes of hosting its own regional and probably should have, goes to Virginia where the host team won 26 of its 33 games this spring. The Cavaliers are not Tennessee, but they are not shabby, especially at the plate. 

Here are 10 things to know about what’s ahead for State and USM this weekend:

1. State’s first-round foe St. John’s is no pushover. State skipper Chris Lemonis is correct when he says of the Red Storm: “It’s just tough, hard-nosed, New York kids. Most of them are from the New York area and you’re playing against tough kids.” In its only shot at SEC competition this season, St. John’s beat Florida on the road. The Red Storm was 5-4 this season against Top 50 RPI teams. They have an ace and there’s a lot of him. Sophomore Mario Pesca, straight out of the Bronx, is 6-1 with a 2.94 ERA in 70 1/3 innings pitched, holding opponents to a .227 batting average. 
2. To get through the four-team regional, State must get more production from its power guys, Dakota Jordan and Hunter Hines. Jordan leads the Bulldogs with 17 home runs. Hines hit 15. They had one hit between them in four games of the SEC Tournament and neither has homered since Hines hit one of May 17 against Missouri.
3. Get past St. John’s and the Bulldogs would likely face host Virginia, which has won 10 of its last 13 games. The Wahoos can slug with anybody, but the pitching, especially starting pitching, is dicey. Virginia hit .342 with 113 home runs as a team. Furthermore, Virginia boasts 11 sluggers with 100 or more at bats who hit .294 or above.
4. Virginia is one of only four teams to host NCAA Regionals in both 2023 and 2024. Last year, the Hoos swept through their regional with three straight victories and then went two and out in the College World Series.
5. State hasn’t played in the post-season since winning the College World Series in 2021. This will be St. John’s 38th NCAA Tournament appearance but first since 2018.
6. Tennessee, the No. 1 seed and betting favorite to win the College World Series, is an intimidating 33-3 at home in Lindsey Nelson Stadium. That said, Southern Miss should know that the Vols are not invincible. In the 2023 Super Regional at Hattiesburg, the Golden Eagles defeated Tennessee 5-3 in Game One and had the Vols down 4-0 in Game Two with All American Tanner Hall on the mound. You know what happened next. Tennessee rallied to win Game Two and then blanked the Eagles 5-0 in Game 3 to advance to the CWS.
7. Southern Miss won the Sun Belt Tournament without the services of one its top sluggers, right fielder Carson Paetow, who is questionable for the Regional. Clearly, the Eagles need all hands on deck, it will be a game-time decision on Paetow, still recovering from a sprained right wrist.
8. No matter what happens at Knoxville and beyond, USM’s decision to elevate Christian Ostrander to head coach appears to be an exceptionally good one. Despite losing 70 percent of last season’s plate production, an All American ace and an All American closer, USM has won 41 games. Ostrander also has had to navigate several key injuries, besides Paetow’s, to achieve an eighth straight 40-victory season and second straight conference championship for the Eagles.
9. Indiana, playing the percentages, has decided to go with left-hander Ty Bothwell (6-3, 4.90 ERA), a sixth-year senior on the mound Friday. Percentages? Southern Miss hit .306 against right-handers, .263 against lefties this year.
10. No announcement has been made yet, but expect Southern Miss to go with Billy Oldham against Indiana in the first game. Oldham was excellent against Tennessee in the Super Regional last year, but Ostrander apparently has decided to go with Oldham Friday, which means Niko Mazza will likely throw on Saturday.