With less than three weeks to go before Election Day, legislative Republicans aren’t just campaigning to win State House and State Senate seats that will preserve their majorities, some members are campaigning to lead their respective chambers after Election Day has come and gone.
House Speaker Ben Toma is not returning, neither is Senate Majority Leader Sonny Borrelli or Senate Majority Whip Sine Kerr. And Senate President Warren Petersen is facing a rematch against State Senator David Gowan. The need to campaign for both prizes at the same time is viewed as an opportunity for members to gauge the relative skill sets of those who would lead them.
STATE SENATE: Petersen is getting a rematch from David Gowan after an unusual election in 2022, when three prospective Republican State Senators were allowed to vote for leadership even though they had not yet won their elections. Petersen reportedly beat Gowan by a single vote thanks to the three votes, but none of the three prospective Senators ended up actually winning, which put pressure on the caucus to vote again. Ultimately, Gowan did not press the issue, there was no revote, and Petersen retained the Senate Presidency. The rematch has been reportedly polite as both candidates are conservative and have demonstrated an ability to lead – Petersen as Senate President and Gowan previously as Speaker of the House.
“It really comes down to style and relationships,” said a Capitol lobbyist watching the race develop. “Petersen did a good job the last two years and Republicans went toe-to-toe with Katie Hobbs fairly successfully, but Gowan builds lasting relationships, and a lot of members think he won the last round, so there may be a sense of this being his time.”
Gowan won an important round when former Senator Vince Leach beat first-term incumbent Justine Wadsack in their GOP primary. Wadsack was a Petersen vote but her alignment with far-right Senators like Jake Hoffman and Wendy Rogers was a bad fit for her district, and Leach prevailed.
In the general election, Gowan and Petersen are both raising money to support GOP Senate candidates in swing districts, which can also lead to complicated politics.
“Petersen wants to spend for guys like (Rob) Scantlebury because he had his vote the last time, while Gowan likely picks up a vote if someone like (Shawnna) Bolick wins.” said a GOP observer, adding “The catch-22 for Petersen is he may not have a majority if Bolick loses, so he needs to spend to help elect a member who probably votes for Gowan.”
Republicans hold the narrowest 16-14 margin and cannot lose a single seat.
Senators Janae Shamp and John Kavanagh are quietly campaigning for Majority Leader while Frank Carroll is the only mentioned candidate for Majority Whip.
STATE HOUSE: The open Speaker’s chair has attracted three contenders: Current Majority Leader Leo Biasiucci, former Majority Leader Steve Montenegro, and second-term Representative Joseph Chaplik, and this race is generating some friction. Biasiucci was going to run for State Senate to fill the seat of term-limited Sonny Borrelli, but decided to forego that for a shot at being Speaker. But with Chaplik running as the Freedom Caucus candidate and Montenegro putting together a substantial number of votes, Biasciucci is considered the odd man out. Reportedly, deals are being made.
“Leo and Joe (Chaplik) are trying to figure out how to overcome Montenegro’s lead, so everyone expects Leo to drop out and back Joe, then try to hang on to his Majority Leader title.” said the Capitol lobbyist, “But Chaplik’s the Freedom Caucus guy and his being so close to (State Senator Jake) Hoffman runs off too many of Leo’s supporters, so it really makes more sense for them to realize that Chaplik can’t win in the second round and he should get out and back Leo instead.”
Further complicating these maneuvers is that one of the candidates for Majority Leader is the current Majority Whip Teresa Martinez, who is widely viewed as being very loyal to Biasciucci. Were he to drop out and run for Majority Leader again, he would be running against Martinez.
Montenegro’s supporters point to his longer record in office, his bilingual capability (he is originally from El Salvador), and the amount of money he has been raising to help elect more Republicans.
“Montenegro is a solid grassroots conservative who can bridge the gap with the older guard and donors. And while the other two are chasing votes, Montenegro is trying to protect the majority, and that’s a good look for him.” said one member who supports Montenegro and predicted he would win.
The Majority Leader race features Michael Carbone, Teresa Martinez, and potentially David Marshall, while the race for House Whip may include Julie Willoughby or Laurin Hendrix, but there are no officially declared candidates yet.
