Iran’s new president Ebrahim Raisi will assume power this week at a time of huge challenges for the Islamic republic, shaken by recent protests over water and electricity shortages and readying itself for more talks over the revival of its nuclear deal with global powers.
Raisi, a 60-year-old veteran of hardline politics and mooted as a successor to the supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, secured victory in June on the lowest turnout in any presidential election since the 1979 theocratic revolution and only after barring his most serious rivals from the race.
After the election he acknowledged that “public trust has been marred” in the country’s political elite, though he suggested the outgoing centrist president Hassan Rouhani was to blame for this disillusionment. Rouhani signed the 2015 nuclear deal with the US and other major powers, only for the then US president Donald Trump to abandon it in 2018 and sanctions to be reimposed.
This waning trust could be “repaired”, Raisi said, by focusing on the home front rather than looking for foreign assistance. “Reforming the current situation is possible,” he said.
However, the new president could find himself immediately facing a fresh international row after Israel on Sunday accused Tehran of involvement in Thursday night’s suspected drone attack on an oil tanker off the coast of Oman, in which two crew members were killed. The vessel, the Mercer Street, is linked to an Israeli billionaire. Iran denied involvement.
And with Iran in the grip of the worst drought in decades and power shortages hitting an economy already ravaged by inflation, sanctions and the coronavirus pandemic, analysts are sceptical that a quick turnround is possible. Only 3 per cent of Iranians have been fully vaccinated against Covid-19.
“The country is in a very tense situation and Raisi has to make very quick and serious decisions about urgent issues such as inflation and vaccination to present a winning card and buy time until a big decision is made about the nuclear deal and sanctions,” said Saeed Laylaz, an analyst.
“But we have not yet seen any initiative from Raisi since his victory to suggest he will be able to pin something big down during his first 100 days.”
One of his biggest challenges will not be in Iran, but Vienna, where talks about the nuclear deal are set to resume when the Raisi government takes office. Tehran is in talks with world powers, with the US indirectly involved.
Raisi has made clear he wants to improve relations with neighbours, rather than the western world. “In order to help establish sustainable security and regional stability, the solution is co-operation between regional states based on mutual trust and not allowing interference of alien [western] forces in the region,” he said.
Hardliners have so far refused to make any promises about the outcome of the talks, preferring instead to focus on domestic priorities. One of these politicians, Hamid-Reza Taraghi, has listed the new government’s top priorities as curbing an inflation of 44.2 per cent, removing obstacles to domestic industrial production, dealing with water and electricity shortages and tackling the budget deficit.
But reformist analysts question how Raisi can do this while sanctions prohibiting oil exports and other business dealings remain in place. Taraghi has said the government had to find ways to “foil sanctions”, indicating that an agreement might not be reached.
One of Raisi’s most immediate challenges is to calm tensions in the southwestern province of Khuzestan, home to Iran’s biggest oil and gas reserves.
Recent protests have been driven by demand for water supply for farmlands and cattle. Raisi, allegedly part of a committee that executed thousands of political dissidents in the 1980s, has not been targeted by the protesters.
Still, demonstrators have chanted anti-regime slogans, such as “Down with the dictator” and “Neither Gaza, nor Lebanon; my life for Iran.” A regime that swept to power through street protests has typically cracked down on demonstrations. At least eight people have been killed in Khuzestan so far, Amnesty International said. Officials have confirmed three civilian deaths and one policeman. There have also been solidarity protests in the northwestern city of Tabriz, and protests over electricity shortages in Tehran.
The regime has tried to boost water supplies to Khuzestan and Raisi has vowed not to “wait even one day” to tackle problems there. He said part of the “massive wealth” in that region had to be spent on its own development. He has also spoken of the economic pressures many people are under, promising to help build at least 1m new houses a year. “Today, not only buying houses but renting them in big cities or even small towns has turned into an unachievable dream for people,” he said in July.
For now, the Islamic republic is determined to demonstrate stability through a peaceful transition of power. Raisi has met outgoing cabinet members individually and approached a wide range of politicians, including former political prisoners, about how the country should be run. Some of those arrested during the 2019 unrest, which allegedly resulted in hundreds of deaths, are set to be released, activists say.
Raisi must also contend with divisions in the hardline camp. The more radical members do not want him to bow to public demands for more social and political freedom. Parliament has ratified a plan that could regulate social media and restrict public access to the internet.
Iranians want to see if he can deliver on his promises. “Raisi has to spend 1 per cent of Khuzestan’s wealth for the province itself. This is not too much to ask and we will hold him accountable even though we have lost hope in any change under this regime,” said a protester in the province who asked not to be named.
The Khuzestan protester added: “I am 25 years old, hold an electronic engineering degree but have no job, no income and no future. The bare-feet people would not be scared of dying if their choice was between starving to death or being killed by bullets.”