A new poll, conducted by Noble Predictive Insights on December 10, seeks to shed light on the issue of how Arizona citizens view the changes that are likely to occur because of the substantial gains made by Republicans in the 2024 general election.
DIRECTION THE STATE IS HEADING
One of the most significant measures of voter’s state of mind is the answer to the question of whether the state is heading in the right or the wrong direction.
This poll shows that the number of those who think the state is heading in the wrong direction is still larger than the number of those who think it is headed in the right direction (56% to 44%), but the gap has narrowed, and is trending toward further narrowing.
Party affiliation and election results have an impact on people’s outlook. When asked whether Arizona is heading in the right direction, there was a substantial difference between the answers given a few months ago and those given after the election.
| Right Direction | Wrong Direction | |
| Republicans in August | 23% | 77% |
| Republicans in November | 45% | 55% |
| Democrats in August | 65% | 35% |
| Democrats in November | 48% | 52% |
| Independents in August | 36% | 64% |
| Independents in November | 39% | 61% |
PREFERRED PARTY TO LEAD
The party which is regarded as a better party to lead is the one most likely to win general elections. The poll indicates that party affiliation plays a role in this:
| Republicans prefer Republican leadership | 87% to 8% |
| Democrats prefer Democrat leadership | 90% to 4% |
A better indicator of electoral success is the preference of all voters combined. Here we see a Republican advantage, fueled in part by a significant Republican preference by Independents.
| Independents prefer Republican leadership | 38% to 30% |
| All voters prefer Republican leadership | 45% to 41% |
TOP ISSUES
All the foregoing poll results, and the results of the general election, make perfectly good sense if we look at what Arizona voters consider their top issues. Both Republicans and Independents consider immigration and inflation their first two items in terms of importance. Democrats, on the other hand, favor affordable housing and abortion as their top two issues. Republicans succeeded by addressing and proposing solutions to the most pressing issues for nearly two thirds of voters. Democrats were unable or unwilling to do so and it cost them the election.
FAVORABILITY
One last insight provided by this poll is the favorable versus unfavorable view of voters toward major politicians. Election winners enjoy a positive ratio of favorable to unfavorable opinion, and that is probably a major reason for their victories.
Overall, this poll indicates that Arizona voters are more optimistic about the future of the state than they have been quite in some time.
