Pearl River to crest lower than originally projected

The Jackson area may have dodged a bullet as predictions of a 36-foot crest of the Pearl River were revised Sunday to a crest of 35.5 feet as early as late Sunday night or Monday morning.

The 36-foot high-water mark had been the barometer for the increased likelihood of flooding.

“It’s all good news,” reservoir general manager John Sigman said. “If you didn’t get water in your house yet, maybe you won’t.”

Sigman said the crest at the reservoir will hold at least 24 hours before beginning to fall.

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“I have to get water out of the lake,” Sigman said. “We will hold the discharge, but we will not increase the discharge at this time.”

The National Weather Service also adjusted its estimate Sunday, now saying the Pearl River will crest at 35.5 late Sunday night or Monday, instead of the 36 feet that had been predicted previously.

“It’s actually going to be better than that prediction,” Sigman said. “It doesn’t mean there isn’t a water pileup in the floodplain that’s still got to get here, however.

“So, residents shouldn’t assume that what they see right now (Sunday afternoon) is as high as it will get. It could creep up another inch or so.”

“We anticipate that we can reduce the discharge in the near future,” Sigman said. “However, we do have to keep a high discharge for now.”

Marty Pope, a meteorologist from the National Weather Service, confirmed that the agency’s prediction for the Pearl River crest is at 35.5 feet by Monday morning, below the 36 or more that had been anticipated just 24 hours ago.

The Ross Barnett Reservoir crested Sunday at 298.5 feet above sea level, the highest it has been since it crested at 299.5 feet in 1979, and all indications are that the Pearl River will crest lower than previously predicted.

The Sunday morning reading of the Pearl River was 35.12 feet, but there is some expected creep up that would take it to 35.5.

“It could be less than 35.5,” Pope said. “But there are some other factors that we are looking at.”

The weather forecast for Sunday calls for scattered showers in the area.

“We think any showers we get (Sunday) will be scattered in nature, but as long as it is not widespread or not several inches directly over the reservoir, it won’t give us any problem,” Pope said.

All of the streams above the reservoir are falling very rapidly, Pope said. That should make the reservoir drop, and when that does, the river south of the reservoir will begin to drop, maybe even more quickly than originally anticipated.

Pope also said that after talking with emergency management officials in Hinds County, there are some houses that have been impacted that have visible water marks. That could mean there is some cresting already happening.