Nuggets betting Christian Braun can replace Kentavious Caldwell-Pope

It might’ve actually been fitting that the first hours of NBA free agency were unexpectedly quiet for the Nuggets. Too quiet.

There will be roster moves in Denver. That’s a certainty. Vlatko Cancar and DeAndre Jordan are each likely to return on one-year deals, league sources told The Denver Post, and that still leaves two roster spots unoccupied. The Nuggets will be able to use the $5.2 million taxpayer mid-level exception to fill one of those. They are staying active in the trade market as well, even kicking the tires on Russell Westbrook.

But yes, it’s fitting that no concrete roster additions occurred Sunday between the start of free agent negotiations (4 p.m. MT) and the print deadlines of the local newspaper. While the Nuggets’ front office was busy, no doubt, the rest of Denver was stuck with nothing to reflect on except a loss.

What does the departure of Kentavious Caldwell-Pope to Orlando, reported by USA TODAY’s Jeff Zillgitt and ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski, for three years and $66 million mean?

First off, it’s not as simple as a downright indictment of ownership’s willingness to spend, nor does it set a precedent that Denver will never be a second-apron team under any circumstance during the life of this CBA. The Nuggets, according to The Athletic, showed serious interest in trading for Paul George before the draft, for example.

A league source confirmed to The Post that Denver was briefly in talks with the Clippers, though it’s questionable how far along those conversations got. An extend-and-trade would have required Michael Porter Jr., Zeke Nnaji and draft picks. What’s the point? Interest in a player of George’s pedigree and salary, as an outsider rather than the team drafting and developing that player, indicates a pretty clear openness to spending.

Choosing whether to wade into the second-apron morass is about more than whether an owner is too cheap to pay the luxury tax bill. It’s a question of whether certain moves, certain contracts, are worth sacrificing roster flexibility. If the Nuggets went into the second apron with Caldwell-Pope, they would not have been able to even entertain a trade like that one. So far, the Nuggets have given no reason to believe they won’t exceed the second apron if they view it to be worth the competitive risks. General manager Calvin Booth said as much after the season ended.

“I think for me personally, it’s win a championship, one. Two, we have to look at the overall financial picture. And three, second apron,” he said then when asked about Caldwell-Pope. “And I know the second apron is daunting, and there’s all kinds of restrictions, but I don’t think that’s first on our priority list.”

Perhaps more pressingly, the loss of Caldwell-Pope despite possessing full Bird rights to exceed the salary cap is a bet on Christian Braun, who out-defended KCP in the second round of the 2024 playoffs.

They’re very different players. Defensively, Braun might not be the elite screen navigator that KCP is, but he’s much bigger for a two-guard. He’s a formidable point-of-attack and help defender already at age 23, and he can hold his own in the post against other physically overpowering guards and forwards, from LeBron James to Anthony Edwards to Luka Doncic. Considering that Braun is only two years into his NBA career, it’s reasonable to believe he’s on his way to being regarded as an elite wing defender in the same light as Caldwell-Pope.

The offensive fit is the biggest uncertainty. Braun plays at a fast, downhill pace — athletic and high-energy at its best, disorganized at its worst — that doesn’t exactly mesh with the methodical, cerebral style of Denver’s starting lineup. However, Nikola Jokic has always rewarded good cutters, and Braun does have a good feel for when to pounce on open space or slash to the rim. If anyone can optimize his off-ball effectiveness, it’s this lineup.

Of course, shooting is an inevitable aspect of good off-ball offense, especially at this position. Nuggets coach Michael Malone has labeled Braun’s 3-point shooting percentage as a defining factor in his potential as a starter.

Braun is more than fine above the break — 42.9% last season to Caldwell-Pope’s 39.6%. But KCP shot 11% better in the corners on way higher volume, so that’s an area where Braun needs to keep developing his shot if the Nuggets want effective floor-spacing with him planted there. It could also help him to diversify his midrange game. He barely attempted any shots outside the paint but inside the arc last season, and he only shot 32% in that area. Jokic is one of the best dribble handoff centers in the NBA, and he got efficient value out of Caldwell-Pope by turning DHOs into midrange jumpers.