Updates: Take a look at Saturday’s tropical weather outlook.
As Californians brace for Hurricane Hilary, the National Hurricane Center is tracking four systems in the Atlantic basin, according to the latest advisory.
A disturbance expected to cross Florida this weekend from the Atlantic into the Gulf of Mexico could become a tropical depression next week.
Invests 98L and 99L continue to show potential of becoming tropical depressions over the next few days.
The next named storms of the Atlantic hurricane season will be Emily, Franklin and Gert.
The National Hurricane Center described Hurricane Hilary as a “large and powerful Category 4 hurricane,” Friday afternoon.
The storm was maintaining maximum sustained winds of 145 mph Friday but was expected to weaken as it approaches the west coast of Baja California Saturday night.
It’s expected to be a tropical storm by Sunday afternoon before it reaches southern California.
Hilary could potentially bring “significant impacts” to parts of the Baja California Peninsula and the Southwestern United States this weekend, including rainfall of up to 12 inches in the Southern California mountains, according to the National Hurricane Center.
Hurricane Hilary:Category 4 hurricane Hilary headed for California as SoCal sees first tropical storm watch
Forecasters also are watching two tropical waves in the Atlantic basin, which consists of the Atlantic Ocean, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea.
Colorado State University forecasters are predicting above-normal hurricane activity over the next two weeks, according to their latest two-week forecast.
The last half of August “typically marks the real ramp-up for Atlantic TC (tropical cyclone) activity. The primary threat formation area for major hurricanes in late August is in the eastern and central tropical Atlantic,” CSU said.
Here’s the latest update from the NHC as of 2 p.m.:
What’s out there and where are they?
- Invest 98L: Showers and thunderstorms continue to show some signs of organization in association with a broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands.
- Invest 99L: An elongated trough of low pressure located roughly halfway between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles is producing some disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
- Disturbance 3: Another area of low pressure could form in a day or so from an elongated trough of low pressure located several hundred miles to the east-southeast of the Lesser Antilles.
- Disturbance 4: An area of disturbed weather located over the southeastern Bahamas is forecast to move into the Gulf of Mexico by early next week, where a broad area of low pressure could form.
How likely is Invest 98L to strengthen?
Invest 98L: Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for additional development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the weekend while it moves toward the west-northwest ornorthwest at about 10 mph across the eastern tropical Atlantic.
By early next week, upper-level winds over the system are forecast to increase, and further development is not expected.
➤ Spaghetti models for Invest 98L
- Formation chance through 48 hours: medium, 60 percent.
- Formation chance through seven days: high, 70 percent.
How likely is Invest 99L to strengthen?
Invest 99L: Environmental conditions are only marginally conducive for further development of this system,but a tropical depression could still form during the day or so while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the central tropical Atlantic.
Thereafter, upper-level winds are forecast to become unfavorable for any further development.
➤ Spaghetti models for Invest 99L
- Formation chance through 48 hours: medium, 40 percent.
- Formation chance through seven days: medium, 40 percent.
How likely is Disturbance 3 to strengthen?
Disturbance 3: Some slow development of this system is possible over the weekend and into early next weekas it moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the Lesser Antilles and into the northeastern Caribbean Sea.
- Formation chance through 48 hours: low, 10 percent.
- Formation chance through 7 days: low, 30 percent.
How likely is Disturbance 4 in Gulf of Mexico to strengthen?
Disturbance 4: Thereafter, some slow development of this system is possible and a tropical depression could form as it moves westward and approaches the western Gulf of Mexico coastline by the middle of next week.
- Formation chance through 48 hours: near 0 percent.
- Formation chance through seven days: medium, 40 percent.
Where are tropical waves in the Atlantic basin?
- Tropical wave 1: A tropical wave in the western Atlantic is located east of the British Virgin Islands. It’s moving west at 17 mph. Exact location: near 52W from 06N to 19N.
- Tropical wave 2: A tropical wave in the Caribbean stretches from the western part of Haiti to just inland Colombia. It’s moving west at 11 to 17 mph.
Who is likely to be impacted?
Disturbance 4: Chances for development over the next two days are near zero as the system moves west across Florida.
However, there are increased chances for showers and thunderstorms over the weekend, according to the National Weather Service in Miami.
The National Weather Service in Melbourne added that heavy rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with higher amounts possible in some locations, are possible from Saturday night through midday Sunday from Brevard County south to Martin County.
“This feature will not have much time to develop before it likely moves into Texas, though it will be moving across very warm water which can aid in rapid development,” said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dan Pydynowski.
It’s too early at this time to determine if there will be any impact to the U.S. from the tropical waves.
Forecasters urge all residents to continue monitoring the tropics and to always be prepared.
Spaghetti models, forecast path for Invest 98L
Spaghetti models, forecast path for Invest 99L
Weather watches and warnings issued in Florida
When is the Atlantic hurricane season?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
When is the peak of hurricane season?
The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.
Tropical forecast over the next seven days
Excessive rainfall forecast
What’s out there?
Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center.
What’s next?
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