All three of Nevada’s incumbent House Democrats have won re-election in their Las Vegas-based seats — an expected result after Democrats far outspent Republican candidates who were largely left to fend for themselves by national GOP groups, but uncomfortably close at times for Rep. Susie Lee (D-NV).
Rep. Dina Titus (D-NV), whose district is reliably the safest for Democrats, won a rematch against 2022 candidate Mark Robertson in Congressional District 1.
Lee, running in the swingy Congressional District 3, beat tax analyst and conservative opinion columnist Drew Johnson.
And in Congressional District 4, which includes both North Las Vegas and vast swaths of rural Nevada, Rep. Steven Horsford (D-NV) defeated former North Las Vegas Mayor John Lee.
Republicans paid the races little attention after coming away empty-handed in 2022. Two years ago, national Republican groups poured $28 million into these districts, with Lee’s race attracting special attention and operatives believing that the path to a House majority ran through Las Vegas.
Republicans did get their majority, but Southern Nevada was not part of the equation. Titus, Lee and Horsford each won their re-election in 2022 Lee’s was closest, with a 4-percentage-point margin.
This time around, Democratic incumbents were virtually unchallenged on the airwaves.
In District 1, Titus and Democrats outspent Robertson by more than $2.4 million over the past two years. The difference was even more stark in the other two districts — Democrats spent over $9 million more than Republicans in District 3 and in District 4.
That spending disparity — and a perception that the Republican candidates were relatively weak — led House Majority PAC, the main outside group associated with House Democratic leadership, to cancel millions in ad reservations for the final few weeks of the election, choosing to spend the money in more competitive races.
That confidence was rewarded. For the fourth straight cycle, Las Vegas will be entirely represented by Democrats in Congress.
Congressional District 3, which includes the southern and western parts of Clark County, from Laughlin to Summerlin to parts of Spring Valley, has close to equal numbers of registered Democrats and Republicans. Lee, who has represented the district since 2018, has always won close races, and this year’s contest — despite her vast spending advantage — was won narrowly.
After the first results — encompassing the early vote and mail that arrived during early voting — were posted, Lee led by less than 1 percentage point. That lead built somewhat, up to just over 1 point, with Election Day votes and mail arriving on Election Day morning. By Thursday morning, once Clark County had posted the results from mail ballots left in drop boxes on Election Day, Lee’s lead moved up to about 2.3 percent.
With more mail ballots — which have favored Democrats — to come in Clark County, including mail arriving from the U.S. Postal Service on the evening of Election Day, the day after and the few ballots that will arrive through Saturday, Lee’s margin is likely to increase slightly. Her closest race came in the last presidential cycle — 2020 — when she won by about 3 points.
The 2024 race might challenge that result to be Lee’s closest, depending on the size and margin of the final mail ballots.
Titus and Horsford have larger leads. Benefitting from the lack of Republican spending, Titus is winning by about 7 points, a margin that could increase with more mail ballots. She won in 2022 by 5.6 percentage points.
Mail ballots are outstanding in Nye County, a red area of Congressional District 4, so Horsford’s margin will likely be reduced. But he currently leads by 8.5 percentage points, meaning the race is well in hand.
In Northern Nevada, meanwhile, Rep. Mark Amodei (R-NV) was elected to a seventh full term, fending off a nonpartisan challenge from Greg Kidd. Kidd, a wealthy entrepreneur who self-funded his campaign, spent more than $4 million in advertising on the race, to Amodei’s $180,000. But Amodei won regardless.
Amodei had won every House election by a double-digit margin, and Kidd appears to be no exception. Though mail ballots yet to be processed in Washoe County will improve Kidd’s margins somewhat, Amodei’s lead — of more than 20 percentage points — is well in hand.
“Serving in this role is a tremendous responsibility — one that must be earned, not bought,” Amodei said in a statement in a shot at Kidd’s spending. “It was gratifying to see CD-2 was not up for auction, but rather decided based on who voters trust to best champion Nevada values and priorities.”
None of Nevada’s representatives yet know if they will be serving in the majority or the minority. With several competitive races yet to be called, control of the House has not yet been determined.
If Democrats take the majority — the less likely outcome — the Las Vegas representatives will see their influence grow. Titus, who will be the longest-serving House member in Nevada history if she completes her term, is in line to chair a subcommittee in the Transportation & Infrastructure Committee.
Lee, who will begin her fourth term in January, has steadily risen the leadership ranks in key caucuses, including the Bipartisan Problem Solvers Caucus and the center-left New Democrat Coalition. And Horsford serves on the Ways & Means Committee, the influential tax writing panel where much of the battle over the expiring Trump tax cuts will take place in 2025.
If Republicans maintain their majority — which looks likely — Amodei will continue to serve as a legislative cardinal, responsible for drafting one of the 12 funding bills in the Appropriations Committee.
