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Before Monday’s 3-1 win, Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer confirmed that barring a dramatic run Chicago would be a seller ahead of the trade deadline with eyes on competing in 2025.
On Tuesday, Jameson Taillon takes the mound for Chicago. He is a logical trade candidate and could be making his final start with the Cubs in Game 2.
Brewers vs. Cubs odds
- Moneyline: Brewers -115 | Cubs -105
- Run Line: Brewers -1.5 (+145) | Cubs +1.5 (-175)
- Total: Over 8.5 runs (-120) | Under 8.5 runs (+100)
Odds via BetMGM
Brewers vs. Cubs prediction
Over the last calendar year, Taillon has quietly been highly effective, pitching to a 3.34 ERA across 170 innings. He has helped raise his value with his recent form (3.13 ERA over his last five starts). His underlying results have also been strong as he holds an xFIP of 3.38 with a hard-hit rate of just 33% over that span.
Taillon holds an excellent Location+ rating of 108, which powers his strong Pitching+ rating of 103. He has a first-pitch strike rate of 68% this season, which is the ninth-highest mark in MLB among pitchers to throw more than 40 innings, and he has helped provide plenty of pitcher-friendly counts. He has helped pay off favorable counts of late by generating a 50% two-strike chase rate over the last three games.
Taillon will be opposed by Colin Rea, who has been a surprisingly critical piece this season for a Brewers team battling injuries to the starting staff. Milwaukee has used 16 different starting pitchers this season, which is the most of any team in baseball.
Rea has managed to work through 105 innings with a strong ERA of 3.77, and has earned nine wins as a result.
It seems unlikely that Rea will remain as effective moving forward considering his shaky underlying profile, which includes an xERA of 5.07 and an xFIP of 4.47. Over his last five starts, Rea has an ERA of 5.08 and has been hard-hit 53% of the time.
Rea owns a Stuff+ rating of 85 and a Pitching+ rating of 96. His low Stuff+ rating correlates with his significantly below-average chase and whiff rates, and he has struck out only 17.2% of batters this season. With runners in scoring position, Rea has generated a chase rate of just 24%, which is the third-lowest mark among qualified starters.
Over the last month, the Cubs have superior splits than the Brewers versus right-handed pitching with a 108 wRC+ compared to Milwaukee’s 99. The Brewers have struck out slightly more (24.0%) and hold the second-highest soft contact rate in the league at 17.8% over that span.\
Brewers vs. Cubs pick
Despite the differing records of these teams, there does look to be a solid case that the Cubs deserve to be favored to win this matchup — specifically the Rea vs. Taillon innings. I see value betting the Cubs to win the first five innings at anything better than -120.
Best bet: Cubs F5 innings moneyline (-110, bet365)
