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The four pairs of boots crunch on the undergrowth and down woody as they press ahead with a purpose, tape measures in hand. On a one-acre plot of ponderosa pine in northern New Mexico, it’s time to take a step into the future by looking inside the past. “We’re going to try to drill and hit the center of the pith” of a tree, explained John Capuano, a supervisory ecologist with the U.S. Forest Service. He then presses a slim tool called an increment borer into the center of one towering trunk, slowly pulling out a thin core.”See how it’s glowing, all that sap is in there?” he asks, pointing to a shiny portion of the just-extracted core. “There could be a disease or something in there.”America’s forest census This is part of the nation’s ‘forest census,’ formally known as the U.S. Forest Service’s Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program. Just like the once-a-decade U.S. Census goes door-to-door, the forest census goes trunk-to-trunk and bark-to-bark, measuring a portion of trees on 171,000 plots across the country, whose precise locations are kept secret. And they have been doing it for nearly a century.Measurement by measurement, from below and above, the FIA crew observed by journalists from Hearst Television last month in the Cibola National Forest are on the vanguard of tracking how a changing climate – from intensifying drought to hotter temperatures to more ferocious wildfires – is affecting a crucial part of Earth’s ecosystem.The process is annual in every state and rarely observed by the public. Drought stalking America’s forestsEven in a seemingly lush forest filled with abundant greenery like the Cibola National Forest, telltale signs of drought are present, explained John Shaw, who leads forest analysis for part of the western U.S.”If things are hotter and drier, that line where trees can survive is going to creep up to where the climate is a little less stressful,” he said in an interview beneath the forest canopy.When asked if he has already seen drought impacting the country’s forests, Shaw answered: “Yes. And it’s a hard thing to see directly, but we see the effects.”For example, he said, “certain insects will move into an outbreak condition when it’s warmer and drier because the trees are more stressed for water and so have a hard time of fighting the insects off.” Tree rings, like the ones Capuano counted on the narrow section of pith, improve the quality of forest forecasts because they “will tend to show signs of slowing down before we see them die off,” Shaw explained.Tree ring research Now, the U.S. Forest Service is collaborating with the world’s oldest tree ring laboratory, using new data to enhance its projections of how a changing climate is affecting America’s forests. Peering into a sliding stage microscope at the Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research at the University of Arizona, assistant professor of dendrochronology Margaret Evans pointed out to a journalist, “Look at how narrow that ring is.””It could have been a drought year,” she said, examining a pencil-sized, sanded piece of wood affixed onto a core mount. Tiny pen marks on the wood denoted 10-year increments.Evans and her colleague, Kelly Heilman, a post-doctoral researcher at the Laboratory, are using their research – for the first time – to help the Forest Service predict how a changing climate is impacting the country’s forests.Below: Watch a video on how tree rings are predicting a potential megadrought “We found up to about a 91 percent decrease in average tree growth each year,” said Heilman. And that, she said, is “the worst-case scenario of what we were forecasting.”In the U.S., forests are estimated to offset about 12 percent of emissions, Evans said, meaning the decline in forest area directly impacts the level of greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere. As the forests become less able to absorb carbon dioxide, that then feeds the planet’s warming.”(It) can be a little bit disheartening. But the uplifting thing is that we can use these models that we’ve developed to identify management strategies that can help us, sort of, promote resilience in these forests,” Heilman explained. “We need to do something about it right now,” Evans added. “We really are running out of time to get something done.”Simulating the futureAnd that plan – and warning – for the future is what John Shaw from the Forest Service is now working on, using the agency’s Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS). “You literally have seen it the first time this is tried,” Shaw told a journalist recently as the analyst demonstrated a new forest climate simulation on a video wall.The FVS simulations use tree measurements of the past, along with climate changes in the present, to go decade-by-decade into a potential version of the future.As Shaw played the simulation developed exclusively for this story, a small ticker listing the years in decade intervals slowly rose, eventually plotting a century’s worth of possible calamities and the dire impacts they can cause.”Everywhere you see a color go from a cooler to a warmer, lots of trees have died,” Shaw said, pointing to the monitors. “We are using the tree rings, tying to the climate models and then projecting that forward and say, ‘Well, we see this changing growth when it’s this hot, this dry or this wet and cool,’ utilizing the tree data to make the projections more realistic.” It’s a goal to track – and predict – the intensifying climate changes now preying on America’s forests.’Forecasting Our Future’ Full CoverageSurvey: Most concerned about future extreme weather, only half taking steps Why a 1-foot rise in sea level has a bigger impact than you think Man loses home to Hurricane Ida, 16 years after grandmother lost hers to Hurricane Katrina Inside America’s ‘Forest Census’Virtual reality increasingly used to convey climate urgency All ‘Forecasting Our Future’ special reportsMark Albert is the chief national investigative correspondent for the Hearst Television National Investigative Unit, based in Washington D.C. April Chunko, Tyler Brodeur, Kevin Rothstein & Tamika Cody contributed to this report. Help us cover a changing climate for our ‘Forecasting Our Future’ series. If you know of innovative projects or controversial issues in your community, send confidential information and documents to the National Investigative Unit at investigate@hearst.com.
The four pairs of boots crunch on the undergrowth and down woody as they press ahead with a purpose, tape measures in hand. On a one-acre plot of ponderosa pine in northern New Mexico, it’s time to take a step into the future by looking inside the past.
“We’re going to try to drill and hit the center of the pith” of a tree, explained John Capuano, a supervisory ecologist with the U.S. Forest Service. He then presses a slim tool called an increment borer into the center of one towering trunk, slowly pulling out a thin core.
“See how it’s glowing, all that sap is in there?” he asks, pointing to a shiny portion of the just-extracted core. “There could be a disease or something in there.”
America’s forest census
This is part of the nation’s ‘forest census,’ formally known as the U.S. Forest Service’s Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program. Just like the once-a-decade U.S. Census goes door-to-door, the forest census goes trunk-to-trunk and bark-to-bark, measuring a portion of trees on 171,000 plots across the country, whose precise locations are kept secret.
And they have been doing it for nearly a century.
Measurement by measurement, from below and above, the FIA crew observed by journalists from Hearst Television last month in the Cibola National Forest are on the vanguard of tracking how a changing climate – from intensifying drought to hotter temperatures to more ferocious wildfires – is affecting a crucial part of Earth’s ecosystem.
The process is annual in every state and rarely observed by the public.
Drought stalking America’s forests
Even in a seemingly lush forest filled with abundant greenery like the Cibola National Forest, telltale signs of drought are present, explained John Shaw, who leads forest analysis for part of the western U.S.
“If things are hotter and drier, that line where trees can survive is going to creep up to where the climate is a little less stressful,” he said in an interview beneath the forest canopy.
When asked if he has already seen drought impacting the country’s forests, Shaw answered: “Yes. And it’s a hard thing to see directly, but we see the effects.”
For example, he said, “certain insects will move into an outbreak condition when it’s warmer and drier because the trees are more stressed for water and so have a hard time of fighting the insects off.”
Tree rings, like the ones Capuano counted on the narrow section of pith, improve the quality of forest forecasts because they “will tend to show signs of slowing down before we see them die off,” Shaw explained.
Tree ring research
Now, the U.S. Forest Service is collaborating with the world’s oldest tree ring laboratory, using new data to enhance its projections of how a changing climate is affecting America’s forests.
Peering into a sliding stage microscope at the Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research at the University of Arizona, assistant professor of dendrochronology Margaret Evans pointed out to a journalist, “Look at how narrow that ring is.”
“It could have been a drought year,” she said, examining a pencil-sized, sanded piece of wood affixed onto a core mount. Tiny pen marks on the wood denoted 10-year increments.
Evans and her colleague, Kelly Heilman, a post-doctoral researcher at the Laboratory, are using their research – for the first time – to help the Forest Service predict how a changing climate is impacting the country’s forests.
Below: Watch a video on how tree rings are predicting a potential megadrought
“We found up to about a 91 percent decrease in average tree growth each year,” said Heilman. And that, she said, is “the worst-case scenario of what we were forecasting.”
In the U.S., forests are estimated to offset about 12 percent of emissions, Evans said, meaning the decline in forest area directly impacts the level of greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere. As the forests become less able to absorb carbon dioxide, that then feeds the planet’s warming.
“(It) can be a little bit disheartening. But the uplifting thing is that we can use these models that we’ve developed to identify management strategies that can help us, sort of, promote resilience in these forests,” Heilman explained.
“We need to do something about it right now,” Evans added. “We really are running out of time to get something done.”
Simulating the future
And that plan – and warning – for the future is what John Shaw from the Forest Service is now working on, using the agency’s Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS).
“You literally have seen it the first time this is tried,” Shaw told a journalist recently as the analyst demonstrated a new forest climate simulation on a video wall.
The FVS simulations use tree measurements of the past, along with climate changes in the present, to go decade-by-decade into a potential version of the future.
As Shaw played the simulation developed exclusively for this story, a small ticker listing the years in decade intervals slowly rose, eventually plotting a century’s worth of possible calamities and the dire impacts they can cause.
“Everywhere you see a color go from a cooler to a warmer, lots of trees have died,” Shaw said, pointing to the monitors. “We are using the tree rings, tying to the climate models and then projecting that forward and say, ‘Well, we see this changing growth when it’s this hot, this dry or this wet and cool,’ utilizing the tree data to make the projections more realistic.”
It’s a goal to track – and predict – the intensifying climate changes now preying on America’s forests.
‘Forecasting Our Future’ Full Coverage
Mark Albert is the chief national investigative correspondent for the Hearst Television National Investigative Unit, based in Washington D.C. April Chunko, Tyler Brodeur, Kevin Rothstein & Tamika Cody contributed to this report.
Help us cover a changing climate for our ‘Forecasting Our Future’ series. If you know of innovative projects or controversial issues in your community, send confidential information and documents to the National Investigative Unit at investigate@hearst.com.
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