For political watchers waiting for an “October surprise” in the 2024 presidential campaign, Amy Walter, publisher and editor of The Cook Political Report, had a message during IndyFest 2024.
“It’s like we’ve had an October surprise pretty much every month for the last four years,” Walter said, referring to a late-breaking news event that could reshape the race. “It has not really shifted the political affiliations or assessment of the candidates, which is quite phenomenal.”
Walter and David Wasserman, Cook’s senior editor and elections analyst, joined Nevada Independent CEO and Editor Jon Ralston and reporter Gabby Birenbaum for a discussion on the presidential race and the election in Nevada.
Walter said the biggest change she’s noticed during the past year is that journalists, donors and strategists no longer underestimate the chances for former President Donald Trump, the Republican presidential nominee.
She said massive events haven’t moved the needle. That includes President Joe Biden being replaced at the top of the Democratic ticket by Vice President Kamala Harris and Trump’s federal indictments and conviction in a New York courtroom on 34 counts of attempting to illegally influence the 2016 election.
“It’s important to appreciate that he’s in a much better position politically,” Walter said, adding that Trump’s polling is better than “at any point in his three runs for office. So that part feels very different.”
Wasserman said Southern Nevada’s three congressional races haven’t changed much, adding, “We can all assume that they’re just going to end up 52-to-48 percent for the Democrats. [It] seems like the great immovable object.”
In Nevada, he said Democrats want the presidential race to focus entirely on abortion and Republicans want to focus on the border and immigration. Nationwide, voters trust Trump more on the top issue — the economy.
“But to these voters, it is a cost of living election,” Wasserman said. “By 55 percent to 26 percent margin, they favor Trump. They trust Trump more than Harris to rein in inflation. To me, that is one of the bigger warning signs for Harris.”
Watch the full panel discussion here:
