Indy Elections is The Nevada Independent’s newsletter devoted to comprehensive and accessible coverage of the 2024 elections, from the race for the White House to the bid to take control of the Legislature.
In today’s edition: Nevada’s digital absentee voting system, which is also available to Native American voters and people with disabilities, went live over the weekend. Plus: Polling shows Nevada’s presidential race is within the margin of error, the first general election Las Vegas mayoral ad is running and state Sen. Carrie Buck (R-Henderson) faced backlash for comments she made about Jewish voters ahead of the High Holy Days.
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By the Numbers:
- 25 days until early voting starts in Nevada
- 42 days until Election Day
- 132 days until the 83rd legislative session
By Tabitha Mueller
Early voting isn’t scheduled to begin for another 25 days, but the first votes in Nevada’s 2024 election cycle arrived through the state’s absentee digital voting system, which is, for the first time in a general election, available to Native American voters living on a reservation or colony.
The secretary of state’s office launched the digital voting option for this election cycle Saturday at the Walker River Paiute Tribe’s 93rd annual Pinenut Festival. The launch and digital voting option is part of an effort to increase voter turnout among the state’s Native American communities, which have faced long-standing historical and geographic obstacles to casting a ballot.
The digital system, referred to as Nevada’s Effective Absentee System for Elections (EASE), allows people to register to vote, receive a ballot and cast it entirely online.
A spokesperson for the secretary of state’s office said as of Monday evening, two votes have been cast via EASE from tribal communities — the first tribal votes through the absentee digital voting system.
Previously available only to active duty members of the United States Armed Forces, their spouses and dependents, and Nevada voters living outside the country, a law passed in 2023 now offers the option to voters who live on a tribal colony or reservation in the Silver State. The secretary of state expanded the voting option to residents with disabilities in 2021.
Read more about the digital voting system and its launch here.
In partisan Senate, does Jacky Rosen’s ‘kill ’em with kindness’ approach work? by Gabby Birenbaum
As one Republican senator said: “It’s election season … Let’s say nice things afterwards.”
D.C. Download: Miriam Adelson: Jews have a ‘sacred duty’ to vote for Trump by Gabby Birenbaum
Cue Larry David’s “Ehhhh” on this one.
Green Party cannot land on Nevada presidential ballot, U.S. Supreme Court rules by Eric Neugeboren
As Charles Dickens might say, the Green Party’s efforts to land on Nevada’s ballot are “dead as a doornail.”
On the Record: Assembly District 4 candidates Lisa Cole and Ryan Hampton by Eric Neugeboren
We give you the download on newcomers running in this open northwestern Las Vegas Valley district.
Horsford intros his own bill ending taxes on tips, while also raising subminimum wage by Gabby Birenbaum
The Nevada congressman is trying to bring this tax proposal onto Democratic turf.
Emerson College/The Hill (Sept. 15-18)
- 893 likely voters
- Margin of error: 3.2 percent
- Findings
- Trump 48%, Harris 48%
- Rosen 48%, Brown 41%
There are a few interesting crosstab results in the Emerson poll, which has shown that the race is within the margin of error for months. The poll, which oversampled registered nonpartisans — which, as our boss Jon Ralston often explains, is likely a mistake because a lot of nonpartisans were registered automatically and are less likely to vote — found Trump leading independents by 9 percentage points. Biden won that group by 6 percentage points in 2020.
The poll also found Harris up 28 percentage points with Hispanic voters. By comparison, Biden won the Hispanic vote in 2020 by 26 percentage points.
I think this is instructive insofar as it shows how far these shifts move the needle. If Harris narrowly improves on Biden’s margin with Hispanic voters, but Trump makes a huge gain with independents, the result would be a photo finish.
WPA Intelligence (Sept. 7-9)
- 400 likely voters
- Margin of error: 4.9 percent
- Findings
- Trump 49%, Harris 46% in CD3
- Rep. Susie Lee: 36% approve, 30% disapprove, 35% don’t know
This Republican pollster’s survey of Nevada’s swingiest congressional district found Trump up 3 percentage points — which would be a significant swing from 2020, when Biden won the district by about 7 percentage points. It’s a strong showing for Trump, who needs to win back the voters that populate the Las Vegas suburbs in the district.
There’s been a dearth of public House polling this cycle, and WPA didn’t share the head-to-head results between Lee and her opponent, Drew Johnson. In a transient state, the high percentage of those who don’t know Lee isn’t necessarily surprising — and where her significant financial advantage could make a difference in positively defining herself.
— Gabby Birenbaum
AD-NALYSIS OF THE WEEK: The first Vegas mayoral ad
Former Rep. Shelley Berkley (D-NV) is out with the first ad in the general election for Las Vegas mayor — and it doesn’t shy away from an issue that proved costly in her failed bid for U.S. Senate a dozen years ago.
The 30-second spot focuses on her efforts to keep open a kidney transplant center at the University Medical Center in Las Vegas. Berkley’s role in staving off a federal shutdown of the transplant center was the subject of a congressional ethics investigation (her husband’s practice ran the program at the time of her involvement, though other members of Congress also made similar lobbying efforts), and she was later cleared of using her office to provide special favors to her husband.
Berkley has said she could have won her 2012 race to unseat Sen. Dean Heller (R-NV) if the findings had been released before the election.
Berkley’s campaign has reserved $445,000 in ad space for the general election, according to ad-tracking firm AdImpact. Her opponent, Las Vegas City Councilwoman Victoria Seaman, has not yet made any ad reservations.
TREND WE’RE FOLLOWING: Rosen still dominating Senate ads
Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-NV) still has a commanding advantage in ad spending in the race for U.S. Senate.
During the next six weeks until Election Day, Democrats have reserved more than $32 million in ad space for the Senate race, while Republicans have spent more than $12 million in future ad reservations, according to AdImpact. Across the entire general election cycle, Democrats have a more than $35 million advantage in ad spending, both reserved and already used.
Nevada is one of several swing states with Senate races where Democrats have significantly outspent Republicans on the airwaves.
Rosen has consistently led in polls over Republican challenger Sam Brown, despite the presidential contest in the Silver State widely being considered a toss-up.
ONE OTHER TIDBIT
- Nevadans for Reproductive Freedom, which is supporting the ballot initiative to enshrine abortion rights in the Nevada Constitution, launched its first ad today. The ad, titled “Racing,” highlights abortion bans implemented in 22 other states since the overturning of Roe. v. Wade in 2022. This is the organization’s first broadcast TV ad of the election. The group is also launching a seven-figure statewide digital ad buy.
— Eric Neugeboren
✨ Acting Secretary of Labor Julie Su celebrates Culinary Union win at The Venetian — Su made a pit stop in Las Vegas on Thursday to celebrate the historic contract between Culinary Workers Union Local 226 and The Venetian Resort Las Vegas. The agreement ended a long-standing labor dispute that has been around since Republican megadonor Sheldon Adelson opened the resort in 1999. Since Adelson’s passing, the hotel has come under new, more labor-friendly ownership. Although Su said she couldn’t comment on taxes on tips — a proposal embraced by the union — the acting secretary said that she’ll continue fighting for other ways to raise wages, such as extending overtime hours.
🪫 Making the clean-energy case — A progressive group called The Payback is trying to raise awareness among Black and brown voters about clean-energy benefits in the Democrat-passed Inflation Reduction Act. The digital ads include a virtual blimp raining clean-energy cash on the Las Vegas Strip and an attack on NV Energy CEO Doug Cannon for the utility’s reliance on natural gas.
👀 Right before the High Holy Days? — State Sen. Carrie Buck’s (R-Henderson) social media posts last week drew backlash after Buck referenced Democrats’ policies on Israel, raising the question: “How do any Jewish Americans continue to support the Democrat Party?” Buck, whose seat could determine whether Democrats gain a supermajority in Carson City, has called Democrats “evil” and compared abortion rights supporters to Hitler and the Nazi movement. The Nevada Senate Democratic Caucus condemned Buck’s words and said the “comments come at a time when antisemitism across the country is on [the] rise and should be a reminder to all that hate of any kind has no place in Nevada.”
— Isabella Aldrete, Gabby Birenbaum and Tabitha Mueller
- Wednesday, Sept. 25: The Nevada Independent is hosting a Las Vegas mayoral candidate forum at the Fontainebleau at 6:30 p.m. as part of its IndyTalks series.
- Sunday, Sept. 29: Vice President Kamala Harris is making a campaign stop in Las Vegas, though details of her plans are not yet available.
— Tabitha Mueller
And to ease you into the week, a few “posts” to “X” that caught our eye:
- Is this how people living in Las Vegas feel?
- Proof that #WeMatter.
- This tweet just about sums it up (also an evergreen reminder to support local news).
We’ll see you next week.
