In today’s edition: We dive into what we know (and don’t know) about promises of no taxes on tips, polling shows Vice President Kamala Harris and U.S. Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-NV) leading in their respective races (albeit by a slim margin), former President Donald Trump’s campaign hasn’t made any ad reservations in Nevada past Sept. 10 and the secretary of state is holding a demonstration of the state’s new top-down voter registration system in Northern Nevada today.
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By the Numbers:
- 6 days until the ABC debate in Philadelphia (though that could change)
- 45 days until early voting begins in Nevada
- In 1845, Congress established the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November as Election Day to accommodate farmers
After promising to eliminate taxes on tips, neither Vice President Kamala Harris nor her opponent, former President Donald Trump, have explained how they will do so or what that promise fully entails.
Though some hospitality workers have embraced the proposal, economists warn that it may not be as beneficial as some might hope, saying it will arbitrarily offer tax exemptions to only a small fraction of the workforce and exclude workers who may not receive tips, such as fast food employees.
Harris’ campaign has said she supports an income limit and requirements preventing hedge fund managers and attorneys from taking advantage of the policy. But we don’t know much more than that.
Although Harris’ campaign reached out to The Nevada Independent to discuss labor rights, Julie Chavez, her campaign manager, spoke broadly about Harris’ goals to expand economic opportunities for Americans. She offered scant policy specifics but noted that they include raising the federal minimum wage and addressing outsized housing costs.
In a 10-minute interview Tuesday, Chavez didn’t expand on whether her proposed policy would exempt tips only from income taxes, payroll taxes or both.
These specifics could affect the policy for Nevada’s more than 350,000 hospitality workers, who are required to pay both forms of tips tax. Many of these tipped workers do not earn enough to owe federal income tax.
Nevada is one of just seven states that requires tipped workers to be paid the state’s full $12 minimum wage instead of a subminimum wage that workers can potentially make up via tips.
Many have interpreted “No Tax on Tips” as an appeal to Nevada voters, who could be key in determining the swing state’s Election Day results.
Sens. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV) and Jacky Rosen (D-NV) signed on to a bill introduced this July by Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) that proposed ending federal taxes on tips.
The Harris campaign has released some more detailed policy proposals on expanding affordable housing, lowering grocery costs and enhancing the child tax credit and is expected to unveil economic policies geared at small businesses during a speech in New Hampshire today.
Almost all would require congressional approval, which could pose a significant hurdle.
Despite scant policy proposals, Chavez said she is not worried about the state of the race.
“We are confident that we will win Nevada,” she said.
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Emerson College, The Hill (Aug. 25-28)
- 1,168 likely voters
- Margin of error: 2.8 percentage points
- Findings
- Harris 49%, Trump 48%
- Rosen 50%, Brown 40%
Fox News (Aug. 23-26)
- 1,026 registered voters
- Margin of error: 3 percentage points
- Findings
- Harris 50%, Trump 48%
- Rosen 55%, Brown 41%
Morning Consult, Bloomberg (Aug. 23-26)
- 450 registered voters
- Margin of error: 5 percentage points
- Findings
Three big polls last week combine to remind us of what always seems to be true of Nevada around election time — the race is narrow. But while the margins are within the margin of error, each poll found Vice President Kamala Harris (D) leading. And for those that tested the Senate race, Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-NV) continues to look strong, running well ahead of the presidential race.
One interesting trend to watch with each of those polls — all of which are conducted regularly — is how candidates have moved over time. These indicators are quite positive for Harris. Since she took over for President Joe Biden, Nevada has moved:
Democrats won Nevada by about 2.5 percentage points in each of the last two presidential elections. So whatever you make of the margins in these polls — or whether you prefer to wait until Labor Day to trust any polling — the Harrismentum is evident this summer.
— Gabby Birenbaum
AD-NALYSIS OF THE WEEK: Where are the pro-Trump ad reservations?
Starting Sept.10, Republicans have no ad reservations in Nevada for the presidential race, according to AdImpact, an ad-tracking firm, an extremely rare airwave abandonment in a swing state.
Meanwhile, from Sept. 10 until Election Day, Democrats have reserved more than $19 million in space for pro-Harris ads, with about $12 million coming from the Harris campaign itself.
Republicans still have opportunities to book ad space, but if current trends continue, it would mark a significant downturn in Silver State ad spending. In the 2020 presidential election, Republicans spent more than $5 million in Nevada for ads during the same period.
The lack of spending, however, appears to align with a Republican strategy of consolidating ad reservations in swing states considered to be more important, such as Pennsylvania and Georgia, with less emphasis on states the GOP can afford to lose, such as Michigan and Wisconsin.
A Trump campaign spokesperson did not respond to a request for more information on its ad spending plans.
TREND WE’RE FOLLOWING: The Question 3 ad surge
More than $27 million in ad spending and reservations have been made by opponents and supporters of ballot Question 3, a measure that, if successful, would implement ranked-choice voting and open primaries in Nevada.
Ad spending in the campaign surrounding Question 3 has been relatively lackluster since the start of 2024. But spending exploded last week as groups opposing and supporting the measure have reserved millions of ad space every week until Election Day. Opponents outpaced proponents every week beginning Sept. 17.
About $15 million of the reservations are from the Fair Government Nevada PAC, which is opposed to Question 3. The group’s most recent ad went live in Reno on Tuesday, and it emphasizes how long it takes for a voter to rank their top five candidates (which is not required) and says the voting method caused “chaos” in other states, leading to ballots being disqualified. The PAC’s registration form lists officers who are associated with Battle Born Progress, an organization focused on progressive communications in Nevada.
Meanwhile, the rest of the spending came from the Vote Yes on 3 PAC, which spent $1.3 million in the past week on a new ad that focuses on how Nevadans registered as nonpartisans are locked out of any partisan primaries in the state. Vote Yes on 3 is a new PAC after proponents’ former PAC — Nevada Voters First — rebranded as a new group this year.
— Eric Neugeboren and Tabitha Mueller
📺 NRSC drops two new ads in Nevada — The National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) is releasing two new ads Wednesday on two issues Republicans believe are winners — inflation and immigration. One, “Mikayla,” features a bartender lamenting high costs of living, while the second, “Kathleen,” includes a woman claiming Rosen voted for handouts to “illegal immigrants.” The ads, which also mention Vice President Kamala Harris, are part of the NRSC’s $100 million ad campaign across Senate battleground states.
🗳️ National, state Republicans hold “Protect Your Vote” event — A trio of Republicans — Nevada GOP Chair Michael McDonald, Republican National Committee Chair Michael Whatley and former acting U.S. Attorney General Matt Whitaker — held an event Tuesday in Reno billed as a way for voters to learn about how to protect their vote and sign up to be election workers. The event largely served as a stump speech for Trump, but also included discussions on how a deluge of attorneys will be stationed at polls this election cycle. There is no evidence of widespread election fraud from the 2020 election.
✅ Rosen locks down endorsements — Rosen has earned endorsements from a slate of expected Democratic-aligned organizations — which are noteworthy when they come with funding. Progressive advocacy group MoveOn endorsed Rosen last week, planning to include her in the organization’s $32 million mobilization campaign this fall.
👷 Las Vegas construction union backs Northern Nevada Republican — Northern Nevada Republican Assembly candidate Diana Sande announced Thursday she was endorsed by the Las Vegas chapter of LiUNA!, or Laborers Union Local 872, which represents construction workers. The union’s Northern Nevada chapter, Laborers Union Local 169, endorsed Sande’s opponent, Assemblywoman Selena La Rue Hatch (D-Reno), earlier this year.
— Eric Neugeboren, Gabby Birenbaum and Tabitha Mueller
- Wednesday, Sept. 4: Nevada’s Republican Senate candidate Sam Brown is having a discussion with conservative political commentator Ben Shapiro in Las Vegas.
- Wednesday, Sept. 4: The Nevada Independent is hosting an IndyTalks event in Reno at 6:30 p.m. on the future of Lake Tahoe.
- Wednesday, Sept. 4: Reproductive rights advocate Hadley Duvall will hold an event in Las Vegas at 10 a.m. and at Reno at 5 p.m. for Harris’ campaign as it aims to turn out young voters.
- Wednesday, Sept. 4: Secretary of State Cisco Aguilar is holding an in-person demonstration in Northern Nevada of the state’s new top-down voter registration system, which went live last month.
- Wednesday, Sept. 4: The Republican Jewish Coalition is hosting its annual leadership summit at the Venetian Resort through Friday, Sept. 6.
- Friday, Sept. 6: U.S. Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR) is joining Brown at Las Vegas’ Bagel Cafe for a campaign event.
— Tabitha Mueller
And to ease you into the week, a few “posts” to “X” that caught our eye:
We’ll see you next week.
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Editor’s note: This story appears in Indy Elections, The Nevada Independent’s newsletter dedicated to comprehensive coverage of the 2024 elections. Sign up for the newsletter here.
