In today’s highly polarized political climate, it takes a lot for a scandal to make a big difference in a high-stakes general election.
But if the latest polls are any indication, then recent allegations against Herschel Walker, the Republican Senate nominee in Georgia, might be big enough not only to decide his race but also control of the Senate.
Walker has slipped behind his Democratic opponent, Senator Raphael Warnock, by an average of about 2.5 percentage points across all four polls taken since Oct. 3, when an ex-girlfriend accused Walker of paying for an abortion she had in 2009. Walker has made opposition to abortion a cornerstone of his campaign and has denied the woman’s account.
In polls, just 2.5 points is not a huge shift. Maybe as few as one in 25 of Walker’s former supporters have flipped to Warnock or drifted into the undecided column; Georgia is a closely divided state. And it’s possible this period represents Walker’s low-water mark. While the accusations against him are still fresh, some Republicans may be reluctant to show support for him in responding to pollsters but may ultimately vote for him if the heat of the issue fades for them over the coming weeks.
As recently as a few weeks ago, Georgia was arguably the closest Senate race in the country. Now, every new poll shows Warnock leading, by an average of over three percentage points. (He had already been ahead by about a half point in polls taken by those same four pollsters before the abortion revelations.) And unlike in many other states, the polls have a relatively good track record in Georgia.
Not only does this edge make Warnock a much clearer favorite than a month ago, it’s a wide enough lead to give him a chance of winning the 50 percent of the vote necessary to win outright and avoid a December runoff. (Georgia election law requires a runoff if no candidate secures a majority of ballots.)
And even if Walker does force a runoff, it would pose an additional challenge to the Republicans: Will reluctant Walker voters show up for him in that election? The Warnock vote will be there.
The Senate picture
Walker’s struggles add to Republicans’ challenges in trying to capture Senate control. Weak nominees have cost the Republicans a serious chance in New Hampshire, forced the party to spend millions in what ought to have been the safely Republican state of Ohio and endangered the party’s chances in Arizona and even Pennsylvania. The unpopularity of the television celebrity Dr. Oz may be just enough to keep the Republicans from winning an eminently winnable race in the Keystone State.
Despite those misfires, the Republicans still have a credible path to control of the Senate. They probably need to win just two of three key tossup states: Georgia, Pennsylvania and Nevada. That task starts looking a lot more challenging if Walker fumbles in Georgia.
The governor’s race
The latest polling does offer a good sign for Georgia Republicans: the governor’s race. While many expected the Georgia governor’s race to be one of the marquee contests of the cycle, virtually every poll has shown Gov. Brian Kemp, a Republican, leading the Democrat Stacey Abrams. On average, Kemp leads Abrams by about five percentage points — an edge he has held all year.
Kemp’s lead is not necessarily a reflection on Abrams but probably reflects his strengths. He’s a relatively traditional, if conservative, Republican who emphasizes his economic stewardship and who certified President Biden’s victory in the 2020 election over Donald Trump’s very public objections. He is also running as an incumbent, which tends to confer an advantage.
And while demographic changes have helped make Georgia competitive, it is not a state where Democrats can win simply by mobilizing a new coalition of progressive voters — at least not yet. Biden won by persuading many traditionally Republican, affluent suburban voters, who just couldn’t stomach Trump. They can stomach Kemp.
If the polls are right, they might not be able to stomach Walker.
Nate Cohn makes sense of the latest political data twice a week in his newsletter, The Tilt.
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