Vice President Kamala Harris has a slight edge over former President Donald Trump in Nevada and Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-NV) has a more substantial lead over Republican Sam Brown, according to a survey conducted by a national Republican pollster.
The poll also found that a voter ID ballot question will easily pass, with more than two-thirds of voters supporting the proposition.
The survey was conducted by The Tarrance Group, an experienced GOP opinion-taker in the Silver State, for the Democracy Defense Project, a bipartisan initiative dedicated to upholding the transparency, security and legitimacy of Nevada’s elections. The poll surveyed 600 likely voters from throughout the state Sept. 16-19 via telephone and has a margin of error of 4.1 percentage points.
The poll also found that Harris leads Trump 47 percent to 44 percent, echoing a close race found in other recent polling. Four percent chose the unique Nevada option of “None of These Candidates,” 4 percent were undecided and 1 percent chose a third-party candidate. Respondents also said they were more likely to distrust the American election system than Nevada’s process.
Dave Sackett, partner at The Tarrance Group, the GOP pollster that conducted the survey, cautioned against placing too much faith in these results, especially given that the results fall within the margin of error and emphasizing that this is just a snapshot during that time period. Although the Democratic presidential candidate has won Nevada in the past four elections, the margin of victory has become increasingly smaller.
“There’s just too much fluidity,” Sackett said. “I think anybody who tells you that they know for certain what’s going to happen in Nevada wouldn’t declare it.”
The poll also found that Rosen continues to lead over Brown, 48 percent to 41 percent. Six percent were undecided, and the rest chose none of the above or a third party hopeful. Rosen has led Brown in almost every public poll released this year, often outside the margin of error.
As Democrats, Harris and Rosen take the lead roughly a month before Election Day, a majority of Nevadans — 71 percent — support requiring an ID to vote, according to the September poll shared exclusively with The Nevada Independent.
On voter ID, the poll found that Question 7 has 71 percent fo voters saying they would vote yes. Ninety-two percent of Republicans, 49 percent of Democrats and 73 percent of independents said they support the idea, an effort being led by Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo.
“There is absolutely no surprise here,” Sackett said.
Question 7 would amend the Nevada Constitution to require all in-person voters in Nevada to present a valid photo identification and for mail-in voters to use a personal identification number, such as their Social Security number. Nevada is one of 14 states that does not require a form of identification while voting, relying instead on voters’ signatures for verification, although ID is required to register.
Opponents contend that the measure could make it harder to vote — especially for Black and Latino voters. However, according to the poll, some 75 percent of Hispanic Nevadans are in favor of the measure, in comparison to the 70 percent of white Nevadans who support the measure. The poll found that union and nonunion households favored the measure by roughly 70 percent.
