Nevada is one of the seven swing states that will decide the election. It’s why presidential candidates and their surrogates keep showing up in the Silver State — and why the “We Matter” mantra has stuck.
But are we essential? That’s a different story.
The Indy analyzed the various scenarios in which Nevadans will decide the next president, as well as control of the U.S. Senate.
There are a few scenarios in which the election will come down to Nevada. There are more where, depending on what happens on the East Coast and in the Midwest, it comes down to us and Arizona. And while it’s unlikely that the counting goes this quickly in the Blue Wall states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, we could know who the president is before polls even close here.
Here are a few trends to pay attention to in other states to know exactly how much we’ll matter Tuesday night.
Presidential
Vice President Kamala Harris’ simplest path to the presidency is to win Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Former President Donald Trump needs to pick off one of the “Blue Wall” states and then, depending on which one, win two to three of the Sun Belt states.
If the Blue Wall splits, Nevada becomes exponentially more important to each candidate’s calculus. Within that scenario, if Georgia and North Carolina — each worth 16 electoral votes — go to different parties, the likelihood increases that Nevada will be the decider.
There are a few scenarios in which Trump and Harris get three swing states apiece, and the mathematical configuration makes Nevada necessary to get to 270. Two of them require Trump to win Pennsylvania, so if you’re the kind of sicko who only cares about Nevada’s importance and not about the outcome, you should root for that. Those are:
- Harris: WI, MI, GA/NC; Trump: PA, AZ, GA/NC
- Harris: MI, AZ, GA/NC; Trump: PA, WI, GA/NC
- Harris: PA, WI, AZ; Trump: MI, GA, NC
The final scenario is the very unlikely — but not impossible — 269-269 tie. For that to happen, Trump would need to sweep the Blue Wall states, while Harris would take North Carolina, Georgia and Arizona. In that case, if she wins Nevada, she wins the race; if Trump wins Nevada, we’re knotted at 269.
Senate
Republicans will gain a seat in West Virginia, with Republican Gov. Jim Justice’s victory a near certainty in the race to replace retiring Sen. Joe Manchin (I-WV). That puts the Senate, where Democrats currently have a 51-49 majority, at 50-50, and makes every competitive Senate race a potential decider between a tied Senate or a wider majority.
The more that incumbents in other states hold onto their seats, the more likely that Nevada will determine control of the chamber. If Democrats hold seats in Arizona, Maryland, Michigan, Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, and Republicans hold seats in Florida and Texas, then Nevada’s Senate race determines if the chamber is 50-50, if Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-NV) wins, or 51-49 for the GOP, if Republican Sam Brown wins.
Prognosticators expect Republicans to take control of the Senate, with the size of the majority in question. Sens. Jon Tester (D-MT) and Sherrod Brown (D-OH), running in red states where Trump is sure to win, are in the most danger.
If Tester or Brown, or any of the other Democratic incumbents, lose, then the Nevada Senate race will determine exactly how big the Republican majority is. If only Tester loses, for example, then eyes will be on Nevada — a Rosen win, holding the Republican Senate majority at 51-49, would make the handful of Republican moderates among the most powerful people in the upper chamber.
And if Republicans were to gain a seat, but Democrats also pick one up in Texas, Nevada could again be the decider.
A few caveats here. Several states might still be counting ballots by the time polls close in Nevada. So we likely won’t know the exact terrain of the Senate. And a 50-50 Senate is controlled by the president’s party. So if all Democrats hold, including Rosen, but Trump wins the presidency, then Republicans will still control the Senate — and those moderates become even more important, as the likely deciding votes on various policy initiatives. Recall 2017, for example, when a few Republicans, made famous by the late Arizona Republican Sen. John McCain’s famous “thumbs down” vote, joined forces with Democrats to kill a repeal of the Affordable Care Act.
House
We don’t expect to know which party will control the House for quite some time, because a majority in either party is expected to be slim and will hinge on several races in notoriously slow-counting California.
But the lowdown on the House, where Republicans currently have a 220-212 majority, is the following. If Democrats hold their three seats in Las Vegas, it doesn’t necessarily have any implication on a majority. Democrats are expecting to hold those seats; Republicans don’t believe their path runs through Las Vegas, and thus have not spent any money there.
If Republicans do manage to win — even just one seat — then that’s an unexpected pickup and a portent of a good night for the GOP’s odds of keeping, and perhaps even expanding its majority.
