Fed and ECB to set rates as banking turmoil mounts

Hello and welcome to the working week.

The Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank both meet to set rates this week against a backdrop of gloomier domestic data and fears about the banking sector.

For the US, the sharp drop in growth during the first quarter of 2023 indicates that the year-long battle to tame inflation is beginning to yield results, but the European meeting will be complicated by last week’s data that unexpectedly showed a stagnating German economy and rising inflation in France and Spain.

The working week will begin a day later for many because of May Day or Labor Day holidays, giving those in France who are unhappy with President Emmanuel Macron’s pension reforms a chance to use the traditional workers celebration to stage further protests in Paris. Plus ça change.

Apple will be one to watch in the earnings reports, where transport will also be a strong theme. Carmakers BMW, Volkswagen, Ferrari, Stellantis, Aston Martin and Ford all update along with aircraft maker Airbus and carriers IAG, Lufthansa and Air France, and transport apps Lyft, Trainline and Uber.

We have two key political events for the UK news agenda. Thursday’s local elections will be Rishi Sunak’s first big electoral test since becoming prime minister with voters deciding more than 8,000 local authority seats in 230 councils across England. The Financial Times will have extensive coverage as the results trickle in on Friday morning.

The coronation of King Charles III on Saturday is in a sense pure theatre, but it will also be a moment to assess the UK’s constitutional monarchy. Coincidentally, this week is also the anniversary the 1707 Act of Union coming into force, when the English and Scottish kingdoms first united.

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Economic data

The Federal Open Market Committee meeting concludes on Wednesday. GDP is on the rise but tighter credit conditions in the wake of the recent banking crisis has made monetary policy decision-making even more of a tightrope walk than usual.

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The expectation is that officials will deliver another quarter-point rate rise this week, lifting the federal funds rate to a new target range of 5 per cent to 5.25 per cent, before considering a pause in further increases.

In Europe, economists are split on whether the ECB will increase rates by another half percentage point or ease the tightening.

Companies

Four of the world’s largest airlines — IAG, Lufthansa, Air France-KLM and Japan Airlines — will give an insight into the strength of consumer demand for flying when they report earnings.

Senior executives across the industry have been scarcely able to believe the resilience of sales throughout the winter months, as people have continued booking despite the cost of living crisis and weakening economies across many parts of the world.

For the three European airlines in particular the coming summer season will be crucial as they look to rebuild their finances following the pandemic.

We are at the end of a run of earnings from the world’s biggest banks and technology companies. This week we have a company that is undeniably one of those things and has aspirations to be the other: Apple.

Key economic and company reports

Here is a more complete list of what to expect in terms of company reports and economic data this week.

Monday

• China, France, Germany, Italy, South Africa, Switzerland, UK and other countries: May/Labor Day public holiday to celebrate achievements of worker movements. Financial markets closed in these countries

• Australia, Canada, India, Japan, US: S&P Global manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) figures

• Japan, April consumer confidence figures

• Results: Check Point Software Q1, ON Semiconductor Q1, Logitech Q4, Loews Q1, MGM Resorts Q1,

Tuesday

• Australia, Reserve Bank of Australia monetary policy rate-setting meeting

• Eurozone, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK: HCOB/S&P Global/Cips manufacturing (PMI) data

• Korea, April consumer price index (CPI) inflation data

• UK, Nationwide April house price index

• Results: Advanced Micro Devices Q1, BP Q1 trading statement, Ford Motor Company Q1, Geberit Q1, HSBC Q1 trading statement, Japan Airlines FY, Marriott International Q1, Pfizer Q1, Starbucks Q2, Thomson Reuters Q1, T Rowe Price Q1, Uber Q1

Wednesday

• Australia, UK, US: S&P Global services PMI data

• EU, Italy, Spain: March unemployment figures

• Japan, Constitution Memorial day. Financial markets closed

• UK, Blue Book GDP revisions

• US, Federal Open Market Committee’s May rate-setting decision announced

• Results: Airbus Q1, Aston Martin Lagonda Q1, Bank of Ireland Q1 trading update, Barratt Developments trading update, BNP Paribas Q1, Deutsche Post Q1, Enel Q1, Estee Lauder Q3, Flutter Entertainment Q1 trading update, Haleon Q1 trading statement, Kraft Heinz Q1, Lloyds Banking Group Q1 management statement, Lufthansa Q1, Metro Bank Q1 trading update, Ørsted Q1, OSB Group Q1 trading update, Pandora Q1, Porsche Q1, Prudential Financial Q1, Qualcomm Q2, Reach trading update and AGM, Securitas Q1, Stellantis Q1, Wickes Group Q1 trading update, Yum Brands Q1

Thursday

• Cressida Hogg succeeds Sir Roger Carr as BAE Systems chair at the conclusion of the company’s AGM today

• Eurozone, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK: S&P Global services PMI data

• EU, European Central Bank’s Governing Council makes May rate announcement

• Results: Adecco Q1, AIB Q1 trading update and AGM, Anheuser-Busch InBev Q1, Apple Q2, ArcelorMittal Q1, Bertelsmann Q1, BMW Q1, ConocoPhillips Q1, Ferrari Q1, Hargreaves Lansdown trading statement, Hiscox Q1 trading statement, Hyatt Hotels Q1, Jones Lang LaSalle Q1, Kellogg Q1, Lyft Q1, MetLife Q1, Moncler Q1, Next Q1 trading statement, Novo Nordisk Q1, Shell Q1, Skanska Q1, Swiss Re Q1, Trainline FY, Veolia Q1, Virgin Money UK H1, Volkswagen Q1

Friday

• Australia, Reserve Bank of Australia quarterly economic outlook

• Canada, April labour force survey

• China, S&P Global services PMI data

• Germany, March manufacturing orders

• UK, construction PMI data

• US, employment report

• Results: Adidas Q1, Air France-KLM Q1, Clariant Q1, IAG Q1, Piaggio Q1, Warner Bros Discovery Q1

World events

Finally, here is a rundown of other events and milestones this week.

Monday

• UK, Royal College of Nursing members in England continue a 48-hour strike over pay, forced to end today by a High Court ruling. Separate walkouts will happen at Guy’s and St Thomas’ Trust in south London and the Yorkshire Ambulance Trust after Unite union members rejected their latest pay offer.

• US, president Joe Biden welcomes his Philippine counterpart Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr for a bilateral meeting at the White House.

• US, the 2023 Met Gala is held at the Metropolitan Museum of Art in New York with the theme, Karl Lagerfeld: A Line of Beauty, honouring the late designer

Tuesday

• Korea, the Asian Development Bank annual meeting begins in Incheon. The finance ministers and central bank governors of Asean Plus Three countries, including Indonesia’s Sri Mulyani Indrawati and Japan’s Shunichi Suzuki, will hold a news conference on the event’s sidelines

• UK, another day of widespread industrial action over pay. Teachers in the National Education Union in England hold another one-day strike, having rejected an initial government pay offer last month. Separately, about 750 Unite members at pharmaceutical company GSK will begin a 48-hour walkout and Passport Office workers in the Public and Commercial Services union escalate their strikes. Industrial action is also planned by Unite members at South Central, South East Coast and West Midlands ambulance trusts plus workers at Christies NHS Foundation Trust, the Christie Pathology Partnership, East Lancashire Hospitals NHS Trust, and Sandwell and West Birmingham NHS Trust

• US, nominations for the 2023 Tony Awards for theatre productions announced

Wednesday

• Nigeria, Africa’s most populous country is due to begin its first national census in 17 years, although the three-day exercise has been postponed several times, including once this year. The current population tops 200mn and the UN expects it to become the third-largest in the world by 2050, ahead of the US.

Thursday

• UK, local elections in England. Results announced tomorrow

• UK, further industrial action with 1,400 security officers at Heathrow airport from the Unite union beginning a three-day walkout over pay. The RMT ballot closes for a further six months of industrial action in its dispute with the Rail Delivery Group

• US, National Day of Prayer with a service held in the White House

Friday

Saturday

• Italy, Giro d’Italia cycling race begins

• UK, the coronation at Westminster Abbey of Charles III and his wife Camilla as King and Queen of the United Kingdom and the other Commonwealth realms

• US, Berkshire Hathaway holds its renowned annual shareholders meeting in Omaha, Nebraska, led by chair Warren Buffett

Sunday

• UK, a Coronation Concert to celebrate the new monarch will be held at Windsor Castle, headlined by boy band Take That and singer Katy Perry. Financial markets will be closed again tomorrow as the country has an additional bank holiday to commemorate the coronation