I should have done the mic drop in 2022.
Picking the winners in the top two races, both of which were agonizingly close, should have been the swan song, the ride off into the sunset on my oracular career. But, no, I couldn’t just rest on the laurels of correctly choosing Gov. Joe Lombardo (1.5 percent win) and Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (under 1 percent win).
So here we go again.
I usually start these prediction columns by reminding you of my historical brilliance – Harry Reid in 2010, Dean Heller in 2012, Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden winning in 2016 and 2020, respectively – as if that might ward off the I-told-you-so mafia in Muskland and the real world if I am wrong. Fool’s errand, right?
@Itweetinmypajamas and @Ihaveendlessmemestoposttomockyou are not the target audience, of course. In this polarized world we live in, the mindless vitriol gets worse, it becomes impossible to penetrate the silos of The Validation Culture.
But once you start a tradition, it’s hard to simply end it because you are worried about being wrong. (What does that feel like?)
I’ve never missed a Nevada presidential call (I have botched races down-ballot) but this one is the hardest since I started doing this – more on that below. But that forecast and all of the others are not just based on early voting data, but also on historical experience, my sources on both sides and, yes, my gut. I think it’s wrong not to explain a rationale for predictions, too. So:
Elections, as always, are about a lot of things, but when distilled, they are about math. And the math this year is confounding.
The early vote is different from any since this data was kept in such detail, and I began analyzing it. Usually, the Democrats, fueled by the machine that Harry Reid built, erect a firewall in populous Clark County that is designed as a bulwark against losses in the 15 red counties, with Washoe County often deciding who wins. But this cycle, with former President Donald Trump and Co. discovering it might be smart to encourage Republicans to vote early and even by mail (the horror!), the GOP vote has been frontloaded. The inverse is true and the question is whether the Democrats can overcome a 43,000-plus GOP ballot lead as I write this.
I won’t repeat a lot of my analysis of this – you can read it on the blog — that concludes Trump probably has a 30,000 raw vote lead right now. But my theory of the case is there are still a lot of Clark County mail ballots to be counted that favor Democrats and the GOP partial cannibalization of its Election Day vote will propel some Democrats to victory but perhaps not quite get there with others. Which is which?
I can see from top to bottom that races could go either way, but I have decided to trust the Reid Machine that has not lost for four consecutive presidential cycles and will somehow get enough ballots turned in during the next few days to do what it always does. All of this falls apart if indies don’t go for Vice President Kamala Harris and if the machine can’t get enough ballots returned – not only would Trump win but there will be upsets down-ballot.
Close races are crazy to try to predict but you also have to be a little bit bonkers to have covered politics for almost four decades. Just sing the chorus over and over.
Onward!
—-President: I have been calling this The Unicorn Election because of the unusual voting patterns. It’s really hard to know what will happen with mail ballots and Election Day turnout with so many Republicans voting early. But here’s what I do know: Both sides – at least people who understand the data on both sides – believe this will be close. That’s because, if past is prologue in the mail-ballot era (last two cycles), tens of thousands of mail ballots will come in between now and Friday (the deadline). It’s a simple question: Can the Democrats catch up? It’s really a coin flip, and I know people on both sides who have analyzed the data who can’t decide. I have gone back and forth in my own head for days, my eyes glazing over with numbers and models and extrapolations. The key to this election has always been which way the non-major-party voters break because they have become the plurality in the state. They are going to make up 30 percent or so of the electorate and if they swing enough towards Harris, she will win Nevada. I think they will, and I’ll tell you why: Many people assume that with the GOP catching up to the Democrats in voter registration that the automatic voter registration plan pushed by Democrats that auto-registers people as nonpartisans (unless they choose a party) at the DMV had been a failure for the party. But I don’t think so. There are a lot of nonpartisans who are closet Democrats who were purposely registered by Democrat-aligned groups as nonpartisans. The machine knows who they are and will get them to vote. It will be just enough to overcome the Republican lead – along with women motivated by abortion and crossover votes that issue also will cause. I know some may think this reflects my well-known disdain for Trump, heart over data. But that is not so. I have often predicted against my own preferences; history does not lie. I just have a feeling she will catch up here, but I also believe – and please remember this – it will not be clear who won on Election Night here, so block out the nattering nabobs of election denialism. It’s going to be very, very close. Prediction: Harris, 48.5 percent; Trump 48.2 percent; others and None of These Candidates, 3.3 percent.
—-Senate: I don’t think anyone has run a better race than Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-NV) has this cycle. It has been almost flawless. She raised a fortune, then spent it early after Sam Brown won the primary pummeling him on abortion and his, ahem, evolving positions. He could never gain his footing and was reduced to prostrating himself before Trump and right-wing cranks. It was almost sad for a guy with a remarkable story of survival and commitment to going on with his life. The truth is, though, that national Republicans settled on Brown, a relatively recent Texas transplant who has never won a race, because the GOP bench here is so thin. He was never in the top tier of GOP hopes, who were more focused on Montana and Ohio. I never believed the polls that showed Rosen up by double digits or high single digits. That’s just not how we roll in Nevada in Senate races. But she will win and this one may be over on Election Night. Prediction: Rosen, 50 percent; Brown, 45 percent; others and none of the above, 5 percent.
—-House: The three Democrat-held congressional seats in the South should not be close. The Republicans, their bench decimated by the Democrats over many cycles, had to settle for second-tier (generous?) candidates who could not come close to the fundraising of the incumbents. Reps. Dina Titus, Steven Horsford and Susie Lee will win, but their races may be closer than expected. They all won in 2022, an off year when they could have been vulnerable. Mark Robertson didn’t do much against Titus two years ago and lost by 6 percentage points; Lee only won by 4 percentage points in 2022, and Drew Johnson was a surprise winner of the primary this year and not considered a serious contender by local or national Republicans; Horsford won by 4 percentage points in 2022 against a poor candidate and the ever-ambitious and party-switching John Lee didn’t spend much this cycle to try to defeat him. The Dems have small ballot leads in each of the districts – Susie Lee’s is virtually tied – but the remaining Clark votes should be heavily Democratic and create some distance. If any of them end up being within 5 percentage points, as seems possible, they will be targeted in 2026. Rep. Mark Amodei should win pretty easily over self-funding nonpartisan Greg Kidd.
—-Legislature: The conventional wisdom all year has been that the state Senate would achieve a supermajority while the Assembly was 50-50 to go that route. This is mainly structural (hello, gerrymandering) and less to do with the candidates because Gov. Joe Lombardo’s team recruited some quality hopefuls. In the state Senate, the Democrats have to pick up one seat, and they almost surely will take outgoing GOP Sen. Heidi Seevers O’Gara as the Democrats have a large ballot lead (5 percent) and the turnout is not likely to get better. So I say Democratic Assemblywoman Angie Taylor defeats Michael Ginsburg. The Dems hoped to defeat GOP Sen. Carrie Buck, whose unhinged social media rants make her seem like a nutty version of Marjorie Taylor Greene. But Buck will win after building a 5 percent lead over Jennifer Atlas. So the supermajority comes down to Democratic Sen. Dallas Harris and Republican Lori Rogich, a quality contender – the Dem ballot lead is pretty small, but I think Harris holds on as more Democratic votes pour in. So 13-8 becomes 14-7. In the Assembly, Team Lombardo needs to ensure all Republicans hold their seats and just flip one to prevent a supermajority there. Unlike a lot of insiders, I still think the Dems have a chance at a supermajority, depending on how large the mail drop is over the next few days. But in the end, I think the Dems can’t hold it and 28-14 becomes 25-17, with an incumbent or two losing their seats.
—-Miscellany: I think Shelley Berkley will be the next mayor of Las Vegas, but it may be closer than people think – Victoria Seaman apparently goes to every event every day. But even though it’s a nonpartisan race, there are too many Democrats who like Berkley and don’t like Seaman in a Democratic city. All of the ballot questions will pass except for Question 3, which is the ranked-choice voting/open primaries question. Conventional wisdom says it should pass, as proponents have spent a fortune. But something tells me they have oversold and the foes have done enough to create fear of change and chaos. (The pro-Q3 ads making it seem as if veterans are disenfranchised may be the most disingenuous ad I have seen in a long time. But maybe it will be rewarded.)
Feel free to congratulate me on my picks if I am correct or needle me if I am wrong – it happens. But not on Twitter because, like most people who want to keep their sanity, I won’t be looking.
Jon Ralston is the CEO and editor of The Indy.
