Not all polls are created equal, as everyone knows. Additionally, a poll – even if perfectly accurate, is nothing but a snapshot in time. The real value in polls is when the average of all the polls points to a change of direction or a surge. At least a new poll from Emerson College polling gives a snapshot of the movement toward Tim Ryan post-debate with J.D. Vance. This poll says the race is tied. Emerson College:

The latest Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey of Ohio voters finds Republican JD Vance and Democrat Tim Ryan in statistical dead heat in the US Senate Election; 46% plan to vote for Vance and 45% plan to vote for Ryan. Nine percent are undecided. Since last month, Vance’s support has increased by two points and Ryan’s support has increased by five points.

It is a race pitting men against women. Interesting because this implies that there are a significant number of married couples where the husband will break one way with the wife secretly (often), canceling out the vote.

Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling, said, “Men are breaking for the Republican candidate and women are breaking for the Democratic candidate in the US Senate Election; men for Vance over Ryan 53% to 40%, while women for Ryan over Vance 49% to 39%. A higher share of women are undecided at 11%, compared to 6% of men.”

Democrats are riding the headwinds against GOP-MAGA extremism with respect to the danger of fascism and extremist abortion. The MAGAs will run on an increasingly dour economic outlook. The economy is a significant concern going into the general election because fascism rarely arises in good economic times. No. Fascism takes hold much more strongly when things are tough all around, and the fascist movement has a solid group to blame, in this case, the Democrats.

Thus, it is critical that Democrats keep the Senate going into 2024. Losing the Senate would all but seal a MAGA Congress making a peaceful transition that much more difficult, as we’ve seen before.

It is good to see the strong Democratic candidates running well against MAGAs in states that should be leaning right were it not for Trump’s “loyal picks.”




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