Can President Joe Biden beat former President Donald Trump? Is he fit enough to serve four more years? And do voters’ opinions on the latter question impact the former?
Those are the million-dollar questions on Nevada Democrats’ minds as they weigh whether to publicly call on Biden to drop out of the presidential race. As representatives of a swing state, they have extra incentive to make the right call — a Biden underperformance at the top of the ticket could drag down the four Democrats running for federal re-election this year.
I’ve been away from D.C. this week (and will be in Reno next week if readers have any recommendations!) — quite the news cycle to be gone during — but with constant leaks and a bevy of public polling, I thought I’d parse through some of the data to try to get into the minds of the delegation’s Democrats this week.
The News of the Week: What next for Biden?
Biden’s Thursday solo news conference — which lawmakers were watching with bated breath — had plenty for his boosters and detractors to cling onto. He gave nuanced, lengthy answers to complex foreign policy questions, landed some hits on Trump and showed energy when discussing gun control, in particular. But he made a number of trademark gaffes — including referring to Vice President Kamala Harris as “Vice President Trump” — spoke softly at points and wasn’t the type of inspiring political speaker voters hope for in a presidential candidate.
In short, Democrats remain in the same bind as they’ve been in.
Many Democrats’ concern about Biden’s presence on the top of the ticket is not whether he’s been a good president or can continue to be, but whether voters believe it. Poll after poll has shown him trailing Trump in key battleground states. This phenomenon has been most pronounced in the Silver State, where Trump has led throughout the entire cycle, to the point that the Trump campaign no longer considers it a swing state, but rather a lock for the former president.
It’s statistics like those that are likely scaring the Nevada officials who are running beneath Biden on the ticket — most notably Rep. Susie Lee (D-NV), who has stopped short of calling for Biden to drop out but expressed skepticism that he can convince voters of his ability.
Meanwhile, Rep. Steven Horsford (D-NV), the chair of the Congressional Black Caucus, has been one of the president’s strongest supporters on the Hill, despite facing similar circumstances to Lee in a competitive district — though Lee’s has traditionally had closer margins.
The Nevada Angle
FiveThirtyEight’s polling average has Trump leading in Nevada by an average of 4.6 percentage points.
Most polls since the debate have Trump winning beyond the margin of error of the poll, but do not show significantly different numbers from where the race stood before June 27. In May, a Morning Consult/Bloomberg poll found Trump leading Biden by 5 percentage points. Two months later, the same group found Trump with a 6 percentage point lead in early July — essentially in the same position.
Of course, the Biden team’s goal with the debate wasn’t to keep his polling numbers stable — it was to improve his standing.
In a campaign memo obtained by several media outlets, the Biden campaign acknowledged its most straightforward path to victory was defending the ‘Blue Wall’ states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. The Biden campaign’s conclusions follow the evidence available in public polling, as well — the race is closer in the Rust Belt than in the Sun Belt.
“Right now, winning the Blue Wall states — MI, WI, and PA — is the clearest pathway to that aim, but we also believe that the sunbelt states are not out of reach,” the memo says. “The consensus across internal and public polling is that the toplines in the Blue Wall states largely remain within the margin-of-error.”
Another question Nevada Democrats will surely be considering is whether the problem is Biden-specific.
Downballot polling suggests that perhaps it is. Throughout the cycle, Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-NV) has led GOP opponent Sam Brown in polling, despite Biden’s poor performance. In the last two months, polling firms have found Rosen with leads ranging from 2 percentage points (from a Republican pollster) to 14. (Rosen outrunning Biden by such significant margins is fairly unlikely.)
The split between the presidential and Senate races — in Nevada and other swing states — raises the question whether another presidential candidate would fare better. It appears the Biden campaign is interested in this question as well; the New York Times reported that the campaign is testing Harris’ strength against Trump in new polling.
A Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll released Wednesday provided a new piece of data for Democrats to mull over. Nationally, the poll found that though 56 percent of Democrats want Biden to step aside, he is tied with Trump at 46 percent vote share. (Of course, the election will be decided in the swing states, such as Nevada, rather than by national survey.)
Interestingly, the vice president outperforms her boss, leading Trump by 2 percentage points.
Is it time for Democrats to embrace what can be, unburdened by what has been? That’s just one poll, and I’d be interested to see what her numbers look like in battleground states. But a Harris candidacy is definitely a potential parachute.
The Impact
As the smallest of the swing states, with just six electoral votes, neither campaign’s pathway to 270 hinges on Nevada. But those six votes get a candidate that much closer to victory in an election where the margins could be slim.
And as I mentioned, a Trump victory by the margins that some polls suggest could upend the congressional delegation. So, you could say the stakes are high!
Around the Capitol
☀️Titus vs. heat — Rep. Dina Titus (D-NV) introduced a bill expanding the Federal Emergency Management Administration’s (FEMA) ability to address extreme heat. If passed, FEMA would be authorized to stockpile and deploy cooling equipment, including cooling centers, as well as more directly plan for and study extreme heat events and strategies to combat them.
🌊Tahoe reauthorization through Senate — The Lake Tahoe Restoration Act — the bill that authorizes already-committed federal funding to continue going toward sustainability projects around the Lake Tahoe Basin — passed the Senate on Wednesday.
The bill, which is sponsored by senators from Nevada and California and by all of Nevada’s representatives in the House, awaits House passage. The current authorization expires Sept. 30.
🚌The wheels on the (electric) bus — Northern Nevada will receive more than $9 million in funding from the Federal Transit Administration for grants to improve bus systems, including the purchase of low-emission or no-emission buses.
Through the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law’s Low-No Program, the Tahoe Transportation District will receive $7.9 million to buy diesel-electric hybrid buses. The Walker River Paiute Tribe will receive more than $1 million to acquire buses accessible to passengers with disabilities and construct new facilities.
What I’m Reading
The Daily Beast: Republican Senate candidate Sam Brown’s pastor demands gays ‘repent’
If you’re running for office — check to see who in your life has a podcast.
The Nevada Independent: Rosen ‘focused on my own re-election campaign,’ declines to say if Biden should drop out
This is what I tell my editors when I’m working on a different story and they ask about the status of my newsletter.
Axios: Cook Political Report moves three swing states to ‘Lean Republican’
We need a good nickname for this Arizona, Georgia and Nevada combination to compete with “Blue Wall.”.
Notable and Quotable
“I don’t want to see an open convention — that drags it out longer, puts the Democrats in disarray. “Let’s get it resolved. And having [Vice President Harris] step up would be the easiest way to go. But for now, I’m hoping that the ticket remains Biden-Harris.”
— Dina Titus, on how Democrats should proceed
