INDIANAPOLIS – Areas of interest in the Indianapolis Colts’ Sunday meeting with the Tennessee Titans at Nissan Stadium in Nashville.
*Kickoff: 1 p.m.
*Broadcast: CBS4.
*Spread: Titans by 2½.
*History lesson, Part I: The Colts lead the overall series 37-22 and are 17-10 in Nashville. From 2003 through ’16, the Colts dominated things, winning 24 of 28. But over the past seven seasons, the Titans hold a 6-8 edge. Indy swept the series last season, including a 31-28 nod in overtime in week 13 in Nashville on Michael Pittman Jr.’s 4-yard TD pass from Gardner Minshew II.
*History lesson, Part II: Does anyone remember when the Colts were the bullies of the AFC South? Didn’t think so. It’s been a minute. During the division’s first nine years – 2002-10 – the Peyton Manning-led Colts won seven titles and were 42-12 inside the division. During Andrew Luck’s first four seasons (2012-15), Indy won AFC South titles, finished second twice and dominated the neighborhood 20-4. They won a record 16 straight division games at one point.
But the ’14 division title is the Colts’ last hurrah.
Flash forward to the present.
The Colts have won just four of their last 15 AFC South games. That includes early losses to Houston and at Jacksonville.
The first priority every season is winning the division and securing a home playoff game.
*AR back under center?: We fully expect Anthony Richardson to return against the Titans after missing the Jacksonville loss with the strained oblique. Shane Steichen insisted it will be a game-time decision, but all signs during the week pointed to that decision being Richardson, not Joe Flacco.
Richardson practiced all three days – limited twice, full-go on Thursday – and appeared to be doing the necessary quarterback-required movements during the practice session open to the media. If he’s ready to go, that would mean Steichen believes Richardson is capable of handling the demands and potential he brings to the position.
That means being a dual threat with his right arm and legs. It will be counterproductive to put Richardson on the field and not allow him to do what he does. Limit the risks in the run game? Absolutely. But he’s not going to be effective enough at this point of his career if he’s relegated to being a pocket passer.
*Give the QB help: Jonathan Taylor will miss a second straight game with a sprained right ankle and we won’t know Michael Pittman Jr.’s availability until closer to game time. The team’s leading receiver practiced Friday, but there’s no question he’s dealing with a back injury.
That shifts the workload to Trey Sermon and Tyler Goodson in the run game and Alec Pierce, Josh Downs, AD Mitchell and Ashton Dulin in the pass game. Downs is as good as it gets as the short-to-intermediate target. Pierce is the NFL’s most explosive wideout (28.5-yard average, four 40-plus catches and three TDs on 13 catches).
Can Mitchell provide the consistency that’s been missing early in his rookie season? If Pittman is out or limited, we won’t be surprised if Dulin is more involved.
The Colts face the league’s No. 1-ranked defense for the second time in three weeks (the Steelers in week 4). The Titans are allowing just 243.8 total yards per game, 4.4 yards per play, 124.0 passing yards and 119.8 rushing yards. But it’s worth pointing out they’ve not exactly faced a daunting early schedule: the Bears and Caleb Williams’ rookie debut, the Jets, the Packers without Jordan Love and Miami without Tua Tagovailoa.
There are stars to deal with, most notably outside linebackers Harold Landry and Kenneth Murray Jr., tackle Jeffery Simmons and cornerback L’Jarius Sneed.
*Control Pollard: A transition from Mike Vrabel to Brian Callahan hasn’t meant a change in philosophical approach. The Titans have followed the lead of Tony Pollard. One of general manager Ran Carthon’s many free-agent acquisitions leads the team with 246 yards on 61 carries. That’s a modest 4.0 yards per attempt, but Pollard leads all backs in yards after contact.
That should serve as a warning flare for the Colts. They’re still saddled with a defense that’s categorically the NFL’s worst: 419.2 yards per game (No. 32), 5.95 yards per play (No. 29), 157.0 rushing yards (No. 31), 262.2 passing yards (No. 29) and 22.8 first downs/game (No. 31).
Contributing to those sorry numbers has been a rash of missed tackles. Jacksonville piled up 497 total yards, including 126 on the ground, last week, and Indy’s sloppy tackling once again was an issue. According to Pro Football Focus, defenders missed 16 tackles, including six by linebacker E.J. Speed.
Kwity Paye’s return from a quad injury and the possible return of nickel corner Kenny Moore II (hip/calf) will help immensely, but the problem goes much deeper than that.
*Contain Levis: Sunday marks the return of a pair of young QBs – Richardson with the Colts and Will Levis with the Titans. Levis suffered a sprained AC joint in his right (throwing) shoulder early in the week 4 win at Miami, but the bye week provided the necessary rehab time.
The No. 33 overall pick in the 2023 draft has yet to establish himself as Tennessee’s long-term answer. Levis possesses a strong arm and can do damage outside of the pocket with his legs, but there’s also a distinct carelessness to his game. The Titans have a league-high nine turnovers despite playing four games, and they all belong to Levis: six interceptions and three lost fumbles.
He’s suffered 10 interceptions, fumbled 13 times and been sacked 43 times in his 13 starts.
This is no time for the Colts’ vulnerable defense to provide the type of boost it offered to the Packers’ Malik Willis.
*And the winner is: Colts 22, Titans 20. It’s never a good idea to bet on a 2-3 underdog on the road. The Colts are desperate. It’s no stretch to consider the next two games – at the Titans, home against Miami – as a fork in the road. After that, they face a five-game stretch of Houston, Minnesota, Buffalo, the Jets and Detroit.
Find a way, or else.
You can follow Mike Chappell on Twitter at @mchappell51.
