SIOUX FALLS, S.D. (KELO) — “It’s Trump’s race to lose.” That’s the feeling of Michael Card, emeritus professor of political science at the University of South Dakota, when KELOLAND News spoke with him Monday.
“It has been for some time,” Card continued. “He’s polled better than Joe Biden all along, or at least in the most recent six months.”
The polling became more stark following the June 27 debate between sitting President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump.
A CBS News poll of registered voters found an electorate that was uninspired. Card attempted to sum up the results.
“I think it’s very clear Joe Biden lost the debate,” Card said. “There’s other data that I think you can present that shows that Donald Trump didn’t win the debate, because he only went up 1% in a variety of polls.”
The poll results back up the feeling Card has on the matter. The polls show that most voters, when asked about the mental and cognitive health of the candidates, have little faith in Trump, and even less in Biden.
Just 27% of voters polled say that Biden has the mental and cognitive health to serve, while 72% say he does not. Trump technically fares better, with 50% saying he does have the mental and cognitive health, and 49% saying he does not. The margin of error on the poll is 4.2 pts.
The head-to-head comparisons of Biden and Trump underscore further Card’s assertion that there was no real winner to the debate, just a definite loser.
Asked which candidate presented their ideas clearly, just 21% of voters said Biden did, while 47% said Trump did.
Which candidate appeared presidential? 28% for Biden and 46% for Trump.
Who inspired confidence? 18% for Biden and 44% for Trump.
As for who explained their plans and policies? 35% said Biden did, and 43% said Trump did.
These numbers represent a clear win for Trump over Biden in terms of a head-to-head match-up, but the totals of 47%, 46%, 44% and 43% for Trump do not exactly look like wins on their own either.
The only area in which Biden clearly beat Trump was in the area of perceived truthfulness, though like Trump’s victories listed above, this comes with an asterisk.
Asked if the candidates told the truth at the debate, just 32% said Trump did, while 40% said Biden did. Both numbers fall below 50%.
This “truthfulness problem” may be part of the reason Trump did not see a notable rise after the debate, Card posited, despite scoring higher on presenting ideas, appearing presidential, inspiring confidence and explaining plans and policies.
While Trump did win in these categories, Card noted that this does not necessarily mean that Trump does well in these categories. “[Trump] doesn’t seem to be all that coherent. He has a number of talking points and he repeats them over and over again.”
Card also alluded to what he called Trump’s ‘non-sequiturs.’ “I think a couple of those have to do with his conversation about the battery and the shark,” he said, referring to a recent tangent Trump went on before a crowd in which he speculated that shark attacks are getting worse because boats are sinking because they use batteries that are too heavy.
Trump went on to say he asked his uncle at MIT whether it’s better to stay on a sinking battery-powered boat and get electrocuted or to jump by the shark and get bit; saying for his part that he would choose electrocution.
“I mean, that’s not exactly a lucid comment that’s policy-related,” said Card.
Despite what is being publicly called a loss on the debate stage, 55% of Democratic registered voters said they think Biden should continue as the nominee.
This is despite a drop in belief among those Democratic voters polled that Biden has the mental and cognitive health to serve. On June 9, 2024, 71% of Democratic voters polled said he does, while that number fell to 59% after the debate.
There are just over four months before the general election, and while that seems a short period of time, Card cautions that a lot can change between now and then.
On the idea of this being Trump’s race to lose, Card says it may rest on his ability to “keep his cool.”
“Can [Trump] not go completely overboard, such as he did in a number of other appearances that he’s made,” questioned Card. “You know, it’s again, interesting to see the coverage of Biden’s missteps versus Donald Trump’s missteps. And we’re seeing a lot more of Joe Biden’s missteps. But he is three years older than Donald Trump.”
Biden is 81-years-old, and will turn 82 on November 20. Trump turned 78 on June 14.
A perhaps morbid note here was pointed out by Card.
“The average survival rate — that’s the average life expectancy for most men of their age — they’re right at it,” Card said. “So getting ill — having a serious problem — is something that could definitely change the race.”
On what the next four months could bring, Card had this to say: “We Americans like to deal with conflict and we like to report on conflict — and Donald Trump is quite ready to give us conflict. Joe Biden is not — I maintain, it looks like it’s Donald Trump’s campaign to lose.”
