Liz Truss’s premiership remains in jeopardy, despite her sacking Kwasi Kwarteng as chancellor and performing a major U-turn on the “mini” Budget that defined her economic strategy.
Following a stilted Downing Street press conference on Friday, Conservative MPs are far from convinced that she has done enough to shore up her position.
Some MPs are plotting to oust Truss, and if they are successful it would mean the UK having its fifth Conservative prime minister in six years and the second without a direct mandate from the electorate.
Can Liz Truss soldier on as prime minister?
Truss unleashed turmoil on financial markets and sparked a rebellion by Conservative MPs after Kwarteng unveiled a rightwing agenda in his mini Budget involving £45bn of unfunded tax cuts on September 23.
By performing her U-turn and scrapping her plan to not proceed with a scheduled increase in corporation tax, Truss hoped the shift in her economic strategy would please MPs and calm the markets. But the early verdict from investors and MPs appeared to be a thumbs down.
And while some Conservatives welcomed the appointment of Jeremy Hunt, a Tory moderate, as chancellor, they warned he could not save her.
“Jeremy is a sensible choice, but he has no economic experience,” said a former cabinet minster. “I’m not sure he’s well equipped at all to deal with this crisis.”
Other Tories said Truss’ attempt to put the blame on Kwarteng for the mini Budget fiasco risked backfiring. “The whole strategy was Truss’ plan . . . She can’t simply disassociate herself from it,” said one party insider.
How big a backlash is the PM facing from inside her party?
A growing number of Tory MPs want to oust Truss, even though she has only been prime minister for 38 days.
Some MPs, noting the Conservatives’ plunge in opinion polls since the mini Budget, believe Britons have made up their minds and rejected Truss. “She is never going to improve, it’s a question of when, not if, she goes,” said one MP. Another said it was “for birds that she can see this through”.
One Tory donor who was supportive of Truss said it was “increasingly likely” she would face an attempt by MPs to oust her before Christmas. “It’s a question of what is less embarrassing for us now: the pain of getting rid of her, or the pain of keeping her,” he added. “The U-turn has changed that calculation towards the former.”
However, there are plenty of Conservatives who believe that removing Truss now would push the Tories towards a general election that polls suggest they would lose by a huge margin to Labour.
One Conservative MP said: “Removing Liz will mean an early election and we will get absolutely smashed. That’s her strongest argument for staying.”
Nadine Dorries, the former culture secretary who backed Truss when she went head to head with ex-chancellor Rishi Sunak for the Tory leadership this summer, tweeted: “Those absurdly called grandee MPs (men) agitating to remove Liz Truss are all Sunak supporters . . . it’s a plot not to remove a PM but to overturn democracy.”
How could Truss be ousted?
Some Tory MPs have submitted letters of no confidence in Truss to Sir Graham Brady, chair of the 1922 committee of backbench Conservatives, who has a key role in organising party leadership contests.
Truss is currently protected by the committee’s rules, which state she cannot face a leadership challenge through a vote of no confidence until September 2023: one year after she was elected to succeed Boris Johnson.
But the committee exists as a conduit for Tory backbenchers’ opinion, and if enough MPs tell Sir Graham they want Truss gone, it is his job to make sure it happens.
One senior Conservative suggested that if “over a hundred” MPs submitted no confidence letters, Brady would be forced to act. Other Tories think the catalyst for him would have to be at least 179 MPs, half the parliamentary party.
In these circumstances, Brady would visit Truss and tell her that Conservative MPs wanted her to go and she could either resign or be forced out through a no-confidence vote following a change to the 1922 committee’s rules.
Could there be a full Tory leadership contest?
The Conservatives’ constitution states the rules for a leadership contest are decided by the party board in consultation with the chair of the 1922 committee. It also states that races take place in two phases: MPs shortlist two candidates and the party membership decides the winner.
If Truss is ousted, MPs do not want a drawn-out leadership contest lasting several months, as happened when Johnson quit this summer following the partygate scandal. “There is no way in hell it is going to the members,” said one MP. “The country can’t afford it and we need stability now.”
To avoid a leadership contest going to the Tory members, MPs would need to ensure that the parliamentary party united around a single candidate.
Such a move would require the tacit agreement of all MPs, and it would likely prompt a backlash from party members. “Any leader elected without a mandate from the membership would be even weaker than Liz,” said one MP.
Who could replace Truss as Tory leader?
By taking up the role of chancellor, Hunt has placed himself in a strong position to succeed her, despite his two previous failed attempts to become Conservative leader.
But should Truss be removed, there are likely to be several MPs wanting to be party leader and prime minister.
For example, home secretary Suella Braverman was in the last leadership contest and has told colleagues she wants to run again in the future.
Other potential contenders include foreign secretary James Cleverly and trade secretary Kemi Badenoch, who have both run for the leadership before. Sunak may stand again, potentially in a pact with House of Commons leader Penny Mordaunt.
Some MPs think that former levelling up secretary Michael Gove might make one last push for the Tory leadership.
