Boris Johnson will on Thursday seek to thwart an attempt by opposition MPs to open a House of Commons investigation into claims he misled parliament over the partygate scandal.
Through a vote on a parliamentary motion, Labour wants MPs to mandate the Commons privileges committee to open a probe into the prime minister to determine whether his conduct amounts to contempt.
Downing Street was scrambling on Wednesday evening to decide how best to respond amid concern about a possible Tory rebellion. But Labour’s motion is expected to be defeated because of the government’s majority in the Commons.
Johnson last week became the first serving UK prime minister to be found to have committed a criminal offence when the Metropolitan Police issued him with a fine for breaching coronavirus restrictions by attending a surprise birthday party in Downing Street in June 2020.
Labour’s parliamentary motion seeking an investigation by the Commons privileges committee refers to four statements to MPs by Johnson last year when he said that no Covid rules had been broken in Downing Street and Whitehall.
On Tuesday, Johnson offered a “wholehearted apology” to MPs for breaching coronavirus rules by attending the birthday party in June 2020 and acknowledged that “people have a right to expect better of their prime minister”.
But he also denied deliberately misleading parliament with his past statements to MPs about the partygate scandal.
The ministerial code says members of the government who knowingly mislead parliament are expected to offer their resignation.
Government insiders said on Wednesday that some compromise may be required to ward off the risk of some Tory MPs voting for Labour’s parliamentary motion.
Johnson will not be present for the Commons vote because he is due to be in India on a trade mission.
Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, efforts by rebel Conservative MPs to push for a vote of no confidence in Johnson and a Tory leadership contest over the partygate affair have lost momentum.
One minister said that Johnson was probably safe in the short term. “The bar for changing a prime minister is very high,” he added.
But Conservatives MPs said the mood in the parliamentary party was fragile because of concern that Johnson may face further fines for attending Downing Street parties during Covid restrictions and the possibility that the Tories could suffer major losses in the local elections on May 5.
One senior backbench Tory MP said: “I feel incredibly let down but we can’t have three months of a leadership contest right now. It’s more likely now we’ll get chucked out at the ballot box and probably deserve it.”
A former cabinet minister said that the trigger point for a challenge to Johnson’s position may come after the local elections.
“Activists on the ground have said that in the last five days or so their job has got significantly harder,” he added.
Meanwhile, Johnson found himself embroiled in a row with Justin Welby, archbishop of Canterbury, over the government’s contentious plan to send some asylum seekers to Rwanda for processing.
In his Easter Sunday sermon, Welby said the UK scheme raised “serious ethical questions”, adding that “subcontracting out our responsibilities, even to a country that seeks to do well, like Rwanda, is the opposite of the nature of God”.
At a private meeting with Tory MPs on Tuesday evening, Johnson said Welby had “misconstrued” the government’s plan, according to people present at the event.
Allies of the prime minister said that Welby had been more “vociferous” attacking the government on migration than against Russia’s president Vladimir Putin for his invasion of Ukraine.
Johnson declined at prime minister’s questions in the Commons to retract his criticism, telling MPs that he was “slightly taken aback for the government” at Welby’s comments.
