INDIANAPOLIS – Areas of interest in the Indianapolis Colts’ Sunday meeting with the Buffalo Bills at Lucas Oil Stadium:
*Kickoff: 1 p.m.
*Broadcast: CBS4.
*Spread: Bills by 4.
*History lesson, Part I: The Bills lead the overall series between former long-time AFC East rivals 38-33-1, but there’s been a marked turn. The Colts hold a 10-5 edge since 1999 and are riding a six-game winning streak at home. They also won the most recent meeting, which unfolded in Orchard Park, N.Y.
*History lesson, Part II: That last Colts versus Bills clash is impossible to forget. Nov. 21, 2021. Highmark Stadium.
“Yeah, that was a little minute ago,’’ Jonathan Taylor said. “ . . . just realizing how special it was and then using that to fuel me this week at practice to try to create another special moment.’’
The 5-5 Colts dominated the 6-3 Bills from the outset, and Taylor was the withering catalyst. En route to a 41-15 victory, Taylor rushed 32 times for 185 yards and four touchdowns and added a 23-yard receiving TD. His five total TDs and 30 points remain single-season club records while his four rushing TDs – 3, 2, 1 and 10 yards – are tied for the most in team history.
“You would love to have another five-touchdown game, for sure,’’ Taylor said.
*Playoff picture: We’ll continue to keep everyone apprised of this as long as it’s pertinent. The Colts remain in the AFC mix, but the loss to the Vikings dropped them to No. 8. They’re one game behind 5-4 Denver for the seventh and final postseason slot and have a Dec. 15 road trip against the Broncos. Lurking behind Indy are Cincinnati (4-6) and the New York Jets (3-6), and the Colts visit the Jets next weekend.
Buffalo (7-2) is the No. 2 seed behind unbeaten Kansas City (8-0). The Bills have a stranglehold on the AFC East. The other three teams already have at least six losses.
*It’s on Flacco, offense: Hopefully we all can agree Shane Steichen didn’t get the desired boost when he benched Anthony Richardson in favor of Joe Flacco. The immediate results: A 21-13 loss to the Vikings that saw the Flacco-led offense post season-lows in points (6), total yards (227), rushing yards (68), first downs (13) and trips into the red zone (0).
If the Colts are going to be playing meaningful football in December, it’s incumbent on the offense to do . . . something. And that starts with Flacco. His raw numbers are more than adequate – 64.4% completion rate, seven TDs, two interceptions in three starts and off the bench against the Steelers – but mask glaring deficiencies. In his last two starts, Flacco has averaged 5.7 yards per attempt, 9.7 per completion and his completion percentage sits at 58.5.
The offense lacks continuity and that starts with better execution early in downs to avoid getting behind the chains and being better with a shorter passing game. Michael Pittman Jr., who’ll miss the game with a lingering back injury, said the Colts have gotten into a “shot mentality,’’ and he’s not wrong.
Along with more efficiency in the passing game, Shane Steichen and coordinator Jim Bob Cooter must show confidence in a run game that’s simply not been as productive with Flacco under center. The Colts rank 17th in the league in yards per game (119.1) and 19th in yards per attempt (4.4), but those numbers drop to 82.3 and 3.7, respectively, in Flacco’s three starts. Steichen must be more creative with the run game whenever Richardson’s presence isn’t a factor.
The Bills are somewhat vulnerable to the run: 123.4 yards per game (15th) and 4.8 per attempt (26th).
Taylor is averaging 83.7 yards per game and 4.8 per attempt. Use him.
Blending efficiency in the passing game with reliability in the run game should equate to a more favorable time of possession, an area the Colts remain last in the NFL (25:42). And it’s never a bad idea to play keep-away from Josh Allen.
*No-Pitt day: Pittman finally hit a wall with his weekly battle with a back injury. He’ll miss his first game of the season and just the fifth of his career.
That’s going to require everyone in the receivers’ room to do a little more. Josh Downs’ role shouldn’t change as the slot target, but rookie AD Mitchell should see his most exposure of the season. He’s been hot and cold during the first half of his rookie career and caught just 37.5% of his targets (12 of 32). The Bills undoubtedly will focus their attention on Downs, so Mitchell, Alec Pierce and Ashton Dulin must make a difference.
*O-line shuffle: The Colts drafted Tanor Bortolini and Matt Goncalves and signed undrafted rookie Dalton Tucker with one eye on the future, but the future is now. Bortolini will be the starting center for at least the next four games after Ryan Kelly was placed on IR with a knee injury. The fourth-round pick out of Wisconsin stepped in for two games earlier this year when Kelly was out with a neck injury.
Position coach Tony Sparano Jr. already is relying on Tucker, who’ll start a fifth straight game in place of injured Will Fries (IR, broken leg). Last week against the Vikings, Goncalves started his first game in place of Bernhard Raimann (concussion).
“I told all three of the rookies . . . they weren’t here for three years from now,’’ Sparano said. “They were here for now and the future. We need them now.
“I always tell them, ‘This isn’t college. This is the NFL and if you’re on this roster, you’re on this roster because we believe you can do the job for us. When we ask you to step in, the standard doesn’t change and the level doesn’t drop.’’’
The Colts have had three rookie o-linemen start at least one game for the first time since they used four in 2016: Kelly, Joe Haeg, Austin Blythe and Le’Raven Clark.
*Deal with Allen: We’ll repeat, ball control is paramount on Sunday. The more opportunities Allen gets, the more damage he’s likely to do. With all due respect to Lamar Jackson, he’s in the midst of an MVP-caliber season.
“He would be a guy that when you talk about keys to victory, you’d say, ‘Boy, we’ve got to really be aware of him, not only his skill set as a passer – his accuracy, his execution – but also his legs are another variable that you really have to be aware of,’’ coordinator Gus Bradley said.
Allen has lifted his game to another level after management parted ways with wideouts Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis. He’s completing 64.7% of his passes for 2,001 yards with 17 touchdowns and just two interceptions. His 105.2 rating would be his highest since 2020. Most impressive has been the “clean’’ aspect of Allen’s game. He’s had just four turnovers – the two interceptions and two lost fumbles – after suffering 22 in 2023. The Bills’ four turnovers, by the way, are the fewest in the league and a major reason they’re a league-best plus-11 in turnover ratio.
Buffalo has yielded a league-low 11 sacks and that’s in part a result of Allen’s ability to shrug off defenders with his 6-5, 247-pound frame or escape pressure with his mobility. He’ll tuck it and run when the mood hits – his 211 yards rank third behind James Cook (496) and Ray Davis (262) and he has three TDs – but Allen does serious damage when he buys time and stresses coverage by DBs.
It promises to be a major endurance test for Kenny Moore II, Jaylon Jones and Samuel Womack III.
*And the winner is: Bills 30, Colts 24. Yes, we’re repeating ourselves. This is one the Colts are very capable of winning. But they’ve given us little reason to trust in them. They’ve become too defense-reliant, and that’s putting too much strain on a middle-of-the-road unit. Until Flacco and the offense figure things out, the Colts will continue to work on improving their 2025 draft status.
You can follow Mike Chappell on Twitter at @mchappell51.
