President Joe Biden won over Arizona by a little under 11,000 votes in 2020 and according to recent polling, this year’s election could be even tighter. Furthermore, an additional over 500,000 voters since 2020 has created a shift in voter demographics.
Arizona has long been a swing state with tight numbers when it comes to party lines. In 2020, 32.2% of registered voters were Democrats, 35.24% were Republicans and 31.67% of voters were unaffiliated.
Since the 2020 election, these numbers have been slowly shifting, with registered partisan voters declining and unaffiliated voters increasing. In the 2022 midterm elections, the percentage of Democratic voters fell to 30.66% and Republican voters to 34.67% while the percentage of unaffiliated voters rose to 33.89%.
In 2024, the percentage of registered Democratic voters has continued to fall to 29% while the number of registered Republicans has increased to 35.77%. The percentage of unaffiliated voters has remained relatively the same since 2022 at 33.69%.
Additionally, the number of federal only voters has increased by about 3,000 people since the primary elections earlier this year.
County demographics in Arizona are more variable than the statewide trends with some demographics shifting and others remaining relatively the same when accounting for the increased number of registered voters. Here are some of the notable changes:
Apache County: While there are far more registered Democratic voters in Apache County than Republicans, the number of registered Democrats has fallen while the number of registered Republicans has risen. With an increase of about 3,000 voters since 2020, the number of registered Democrats has fallen from 28,531 voters to 27,343 voters and the number of registered Republicans has risen from 10,241 voters to 11,856. The number of unaffiliated voters has also risen from 12,929 to 14,593 voters. Pima County has seen similar trends to Apache.
Greenlee & Navajo Countes: In contrast to the other counties, Greenlee and Navajo have seen a decrease in registered voters over the past four years. However, despite this, the number of registered Republicans and unaffiliated voters have increased with the number of Democrats decreasing.
Maricopa County: While consistently tight in Maricopa County, the gap between Democratic and Republican registered voters has widened since 2020 when there were 814,343 registered Democrats and 915,227 registered Republicans. However, this year the number of registered Democrats has dropped to 739,701 while the number of registered Republicans has increased to 917,074. Additionally, the number of unaffiliated voters has increased by about 60,000 voters since 2020. Pinal and Yuma counties have seen similar trends to Maricopa with the relatively close gap widening while the number of registered Democrats drop and the number of Republicans and unaffiliated voters increase.
Mohave County: The reddest county in the state, Mohave has always had far more registered Republicans than Democrats, but as with most of Arizona, that gap has continued to widen. The number of Republicans has increased from 70,310 voters in 2020 to 82,271 and the number of Democrats has decreased from 21,648 to 18,747. The number of affiliated voters has stayed about the same.
Yavapai County: Yavapai County has seen some of the most dramatic changes in the past four years with a 100,000 increase in registered voters and a 10,000 increase in registered Republicans. Additionally, there has been a slight decrease in registered Democrats and a slight increase in unaffiliated voters.
