Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Derek Carr (4) heads to the field for warmups before an NFL football game at Allegiant Stadium against the New England Patriots Friday, Aug. 26, 2022.
Tuesday, Sept. 6, 2022 | 2 a.m.
Coming off last year’s one-and-done wild-card playoff appearance, the Raiders didn’t stand pat. The franchise hired one of the most coveted head coaches on the market, then added superstar talent on both sides of the ball, sacrificing draft capital and future salary cap flexibility in the process.
The message is clear: Las Vegas is gunning for a deep postseason run. Now.
In order for that to happen, however, the team first has to qualify for the playoffs in what should be a very competitive AFC field. Eleven wins should do it; can the Raiders clear that mark? By breaking down the schedule into tiers based on degree of difficulty, we can get an idea of the team’s path to the postseason.
Here’s how the Raiders can get to the playoffs:
GIMME GAMES
These opponents are so bad, each of these games falls into the “un-losable” category.
vs. Houston Texans — Week 7 (Oct. 23)
at Jacksonville Jaguars — Week 9 (Nov. 6)
at Seattle Seahawks — Week 12 (Nov. 27)
It’s worth noting that all of these games fall in the middle portion of the schedule. If Las Vegas gets off to a slow start, they could offer a life preserver. Or if the Raiders come out of the gates strong, these games will pad the record even further and position the team to compete for a top seed in the postseason.
Either way, given that Las Vegas is firmly in the middle of a win-now window, these three should be automatic wins.
Projected record: 3-0 (Overall: 3-0)
SHOW ME WHAT YOU GOT
None of these will be walkovers, but if Las Vegas is serious about being a playoff team, these games are where they’ll prove it.
vs. Denver Broncos — Week 4 (Oct. 2)
at New Orleans Saints — Week 8 (Oct. 30)
vs. Los Angeles Chargers — Week 13 (Dec. 4)
vs. New England Patriots — Week 15 (Dec. 18)
at Pittsburgh Steelers — Week 16 (Dec. 24)
These opponents are all vulnerable for different reasons. The Chargers and Broncos are respectable AFC West rivals, but having those games at Allegiant Stadium should tilt them in the Raiders’ favor. New Orleans and Pittsburgh have solid rosters but big question marks at quarterback, which means Derek Carr should be the deciding factor. And the Patriots appear to be a mess in the coaching booth without Josh McDaniels.
The Raiders will be the better team in all five of these contests, and winning four is what should be expected.
Projected record: 4-1 (Overall: 7-1)
METTLE TESTERS
These are playoff-caliber opponents; any wins Las Vegas can score here would count as quality victories.
at Los Angeles Chargers — Week 1 (Sept. 11)
vs. Arizona Cardinals — Week 2 (Sept. 18)
at Tennessee Titans — Week 3 (Sept. 25)
vs. Indianapolis Colts — Week 10 (Nov. 13)
at Denver Broncos — Week 11 (Nov. 20)
Going on the road to face the Broncos and Chargers makes those games more difficult. Tennessee and Arizona were playoff teams a year ago, though neither made major moves to upgrade. The Raiders won in Indianapolis last season, but the Colts should be in the mix in the AFC now that Matt Ryan is running the offense.
The Raiders won’t get a chance to ease into the season, as the schedule is front-loaded over the first three weeks. Let’s hope McDaniels’s strategy of not playing his guys in preseason doesn’t result in a slow start, because Las Vegas can’t afford it.
Projected record: 3-2 (Overall: 10-3)
TITLE TOWN
This tier is populated by teams that could be waiting for Las Vegas in the AFC championship game or the Super Bowl, should the Raiders make it that far.
at Kansas City Chiefs — Week 5 (Oct. 10)
at Los Angeles Rams — Week 14 (Dec. 8)
vs. San Francisco 49ers — Week 17 (Jan. 1)
vs. Kansas City Chiefs — Week 18 (Jan. 7/8)
Everyone knows the Raiders have had big problems matching up with Kansas City, so both meetings land in this tier, even with Tyreek Hill having been shipped out of town. The Rams, obviously, are the defending Super Bowl champions, so facing them on the road is going to be a monumental task. And San Francisco might have the best roster, top to bottom, in the entire NFL.
Three of the Raiders’ final five games will be against the cream of the crop, so while it may seem like they’re stumbling to the finish line, it’ll be more like an extended dress rehearsal for the postseason. Any wins against these teams are cause for celebration and would mark Las Vegas as a dangerous team in the playoffs.
Projected record: 1-3 (Overall: 11-6)
Mike Grimala can be reached at 702-948-7844 or [email protected]. Follow Mike on Twitter at twitter.com/mikegrimala.
