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Georgia tight end Brock Bowers (19) runs into the end zone for a touchdown against Alabama defensive back Jordan Battle (9) during the second half of the Southeastern Conference championship NCAA college football game, Saturday, Dec. 4, 2021, in Atlanta. Bowers was named to The Associated Press preseason All-America team, Monday, Aug. 22, 2022.
Saturday, Sept. 3, 2022 | 2 a.m.
College football prop bets are the worst. And they should be the best.
In theory, such niche markets — which have only recently begun to creep into Nevada sports books — should create inefficiencies easy to exploit and profit. That’s just not how it’s worked out for me, as I’ve continually lost whenever I’ve dipped into such wagers.
I haven’t kept a tally on my college football prop performance specifically in Weekend Wagers but I’d guess it’s 0-4 or 0-5. I can remember losing in every attempt last year, and then starting this season the same way a week ago.
I must be stubborn because I’m giving it another shot this week — largely because I’ve already picked every college point spread here and don’t want to duplicate. I can’t go totally winless before this column transitions to become more NFL-centric next week, so I’m making a couple more bets in two of today’s biggest college football games.
To be safe, I’ll tread lightly and fire the bigger wagers on all the other usual sports in an attempt to bounce back from a slight losing column last week.
Read on for this weekend’s plays. Records are attached for each individual sport since the column restarted for 2022 post-football season with a cumulative tally at the bottom of the page. Lines are the best available in Las Vegas at publication time.
Golf (8-9-2, $5,772.50): Joaquin Niemann to win LIV Boston at 6-to-1 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)
Signage for LIV Golf is displayed during the pro-am round of the Bedminster Invitational LIV Golf tournament in Bedminster, NJ., Thursday, July 28, 2022. Tiger Woods and Rory McIlroy have illustrated with words what PGA Tour Commissioner Jay Monahan got wrong. McIlroy said players leaving for Saudi-funded LIV Golf are taking the easy way out. Woods says they are turning their backs on the tour that made them.
$200 to win $1,200
“Joaco” opened at 8-to-1 to win his debut this weekend in the controversial Saudi-backed new tour. After shooting 6-under par on Friday to sit a stroke back with two rounds to go — LIV plays 54 holes instead of the traditional 72 — he only dropped to 6-to-1. That’s not nearly enough. Niemann arrived at The International Golf Club fully locked in after chasing the FedEx Cup for the last three weeks. I had him as the most likely winner in the field — edging Cameron Smith (who also shot a 6-under par Thursday but is dealing with injury) and Dustin Johnson (who’s been relatively inactive after ditching the PGA months ago and sits at 2-under). Thursday only strengthened that belief as he looked more in control than Smith despite the two posting identical scores. Talor Gooch and Matthew Wolff are a shot ahead of Niemann, but they aren’t his caliber overall. Niemann has a great chance to win LIV Boston.
College football (0-1, -$110): Georgia tight end Brock Bowers over 58.5 receiving yards -114 (Boyd Sports)
$114 to win $100
It might be hard to fathom a tight end being the focal point of one of the best offenses in college football, but that just might be the case this year with Bowers at Georgia. That makes this total in the opener against Oregon a bit too short. The Ducks are strong up front on defense, but their pass defense was somewhat mediocre a year ago. Bulldogs quarterback Stetson Bennett should be able to throw on them, and his favorite target should have at least a couple big gains.
College football (0-1, -$110): Ohio State quarterback C.J. Stroud under 345.5 passing yards -114 (Boyd Sports)
Ohio State quarterback C.J. Stroud holds the game winner’s trophy after defeating Utah during the Rose Bowl NCAA college football game Saturday, Jan. 1, 2022, in Pasadena, Calif.
$114 to win $100
Betting against the Heisman Trophy favorite may not sound like the sharpest way to break out of a prop-betting funk, but this number is astronomical. Notre Dame’s secondary is the strength of its team, so the yards through the air might come tougher to Stroud tonight than in any other game this regular season. Or maybe they don’t and Ohio State proves so much better than Notre Dame that it builds a big early lead on the back of Stroud. That’s a real possibility too, but in that game script, the Buckeyes wouldn’t be passing much in the second half. There are too many ways this game can go to make a monster-sized number like this reasonable.
UFC (12-18, -$1,562): Michal Figlak -188 vs. Fares Ziam at UFC Fight Night Paris (Boyd Sports)
$376 to win $200
The Polish Figlak is making his UFC debut today, but he’s a real promising prospect that’s fought a decent level of competition as the Cage Warriors lightweight champion. Ziam offers less upside. He was actually dropped by the UFC after a submission loss to Terrance McKinney earlier this year, but the promotion reconsidered with today’s card taking place in his native France. Figlak is more of an attacker and his striking is much crisper. He’s constantly taken money in this matchup, and should continue to until this line is more in the -225 territory.
UFC (12-18, -$1,562): Marvin Vettori +190 vs. Robert Whittaker at UFC Fight Night Paris (Golden Nugget)
Robert Whittaker of New Zealand grapples with Yoel Romero of Cuba in an interim middleweight title during UFC 213 at T-Mobile Arena Saturday, July 8, 2017. Whittaker took the title with a unanimous decision win.
$200 to win $380
The former champion Whittaker deserves to be the favorite here, but not this big of a favorite. Today’s co-main event is more evenly-matched than most are describing it, especially since it’s only three rounds to increase variance. The 28-year old Vettori, from Italy, is still on the rise while the 31-year old Whittaker, from Australia, is more of a proven commodity. The latter could pick apart the former in a straight boxing match, but that’s unlikely to be how this bout is contested. Vettori will use pressure, and that’s where he could find success. Brace for a tight decision that could go either way, making +190 a bargain.
MLB (16-8, $1,379): Minnesota Twins +123 at Chicago White Sox (Wynn)
$200 to win $246
The Twins’ bandwagon is thinning, but I remain firmly on board. I still think they beat the Guardians for the American League Central title, and I certainly don’t think they get caught by the White Sox. A big reason why is today’s starter, Tyler Mahle, who came over from Cincinnati at the trade deadline to bolster the Twins’ rotation. Mahle’s advanced numbers are almost on par with today’s White Sox starter, Dylan Cease, who’s consistently overvalued by the betting market. The White Sox should be a favorite here, but -140 is too steep.
NASCAR (11-9, $1,450): Kyle Larson -110 vs. Chase Elliott head-to-head in Cook Out Southern 500 (SuperBook)
Chase Elliott pits during a NASCAR Cup Series auto race Sunday, Sept. 27, 2020, in Las Vegas.
$220 to win $200
No driver in the Cup series is racing better than Elliott, who has seven top 10s and three wins in his last 10 starts. But his Hendrick Motorsports teammate (and unforeseen recent rival) Larson isn’t so bad either with five top 10s and a victory in the same span. And Larson importantly has a stronger record at Darlington where he’s routinely dominated. Larson specializes in intermediate oval tracks with high tire wear like Darlington. It’s never easy to beat Elliott, but Larson should be a clear favorite instead of a pick’em this week.
NASCAR (11-9, $1,450): Denny Hamlin -110 vs. Chase Elliott head-to-head in Cook Out Southern 500 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)
$220 to win $200
The only driver whom Larson arguably shouldn’t be a clear favorite against is Hamlin. The two drivers rate out so far above the rest of the field at Darlington that it’s surprising they’re -110 against anyone. I can’t decide whether to back Larson or Hamlin to win the race outright, and therefore also couldn’t pick which driver matchup to use against Elliott. Why not both? It’s a risk, especially considering Elliott has been the best driver in NASCAR this season but track history is generally more predictive than anything else. And no one can compete with the recent track history of Larson and Hamlin.
NFL (0-0, $0): Six-point Week 1 teaser — Los Angeles Rams +8.5 & Minnesota Vikings +8 at -120 (William Hill/Caesars)
Minnesota Vikings fan Syd Davy shows off his 100% Viking tattoo during the NFL football draft Thursday, April 28, 2022.
$240 to win $200
The lines in both the opening Thursday Night Football game and the opening FOX national game look too high. The Bills are a 2.5-point favorite on the road at the Rams in the former, while the Packers are a 2-point favorite at the Vikings in the latter. Being able to move sides both through the 3 and 7 via a 6-point teaser is too tempting to pass up. The chance to do so might come off the board soon, as I wouldn’t be surprised if either the Vikings or Rams close slight favorites. That’s where I price both lines at least.
Weekend wagers year to date: 65-72-1, $5,778.50
Weekend betting column all-time: 407-402-4, $11,714.93
Previous pending future wagers: Philadelphia Union 16-to-1 to win MLS Cup ($125 to win $2,000); Seattle Mariners +650 to win AL West ($100 to win $650); Vegas Golden Knights at 15-to-1 to win the 2023 Stanley Cup ($200 to win $3,000); TreVeyon Henderson 50-to-1 to win the Heisman Trophy ($100 to win $5,000); Patrick Mahomes to win NFL MVP ($200 to win $2,000); CeeDee Lamb 20-to-1 to lead the NFL in receiving yards; South Carolina over 5.5 wins -150 ($450 to win $300); Louisville to win the ACC 40-to-1 ($50 to win $2,000); Las Vegas Raiders under 8.5 wins +140 ($200 to win $280); New Orleans Saints to win the NFC South +360 ($300 to win $1,080); Oregon State over 6 wins -130 ($390 to win $300); Philadelphia Eagles to win the NFC 14-to-1 ($100 to win $1,400)
Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or
