How Denver matches up with Bills and predictions

Broncos (10-7) at Bills (13-4)

When: Sunday, 11:00 a.m. MT

Where: Highmark Stadium

Radio/TV: 850 AM, 94.1 FM/CBS

Broncos-Bills series: Denver is 17-22-1 in 40 regular-season games, and 0-1 in the postseason dating back to 1960; the Broncos won 24-22  in the last meeting, on Nov. 13, 2023 at home, and have lost three of the last four games against Buffalo.

In the spotlight

The identity of Denver’s defense will be tested on Sunday.

Defensive coordinator Vance Joseph has relied heavily on man coverage this season. He’s put trust in cornerbacks Pat Surtain II, Riley Moss and Ja’Quan McMillian to contain wide receivers on the back end, providing the front seven time to pressure the quarterback.

Denver used man coverage at the fourth-highest rate in the league (39.5%), according to NFL’s Next Gen Stats. The Broncos, who set a franchise record with 63 sacks in the regular season, also utilized man blitzes at the second-highest rate (24.5%).

Even though that game plan has been successful, Bills quarterback Josh Allen is a different animal. And that’s why this will be one of the most intriguing matchups of Wild Card weekend.

During the regular season, Allen was fifth in passing yards (1,202), second in touchdowns (22) and second in expected points added per drop back (0.27) against man coverage, according to Next Gen Stats. In the last two years, he has thrown for 2,601 yards, 40 touchdowns and eight interceptions when facing man defenses.

Part of the reason for this success is simple: Allen’s elite athleticism allows him to go through his progressions quickly, and if none are open, take off and run with defenders’ backs to him in coverage.

It’s a deadly combination that Joseph will have to account for.

The Broncos’ man coverage and pass rush go hand-in-hand. Surtain allowed the seventh-lowest passer rating in man coverage (78.1) with a minimum of 180 snaps, according to Next Gen Stats. McMillian was ranked third at 72.3.

That coverage ability afforded the front seven the chance to wreak havoc on quarterbacks. The Broncos were second in pressures (101) and third in sacks (23) in man coverage, according to Next Gen Stats.

When Denver drifted away from its bread-and-butter, the team struggled.

Denver’s 41-10 loss to Baltimore forced Joseph to coach outside of his comfort zone to account for Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry’s rushing ability. He relied on more zone coverage, and the Broncos defense was picked apart. Jackson faced zone on 82.6% of his drop backs, completing 13 for 15 passes for 260 yards and two touchdowns, according to Next Gen Stats. Jackson only saw man coverage on 17.4% of drop backs.

In the three games Moss missed due to a knee injury, the Broncos played in man on 30.3% of drop backs and 69.7% in zone. During that stretch, Denver gave 317.7 passing yards per game and recorded just seven sacks.

Against Buffalo, the Broncos’ defensive success will come down to sticking to what they do best. That means a lot of man coverage and a lot of reliance on Denver’s pass rushers to get home against Allen.

However, there is another wrinkle to this matchup that poses another threat: the Bills’ running backs. James Cook recorded 32 catches for 258 yards and a couple of touchdowns on 38 targets. Meanwhile, Ty Johnson totaled 284 yards and three touchdowns on 18 catches.

Both players will challenge Denver’s inside linebackers, who have been inconsistent in coverage. Broncos inside linebacker Justin Strnad gave up 39 catches for 450 yards and a passer rating of 104.2, while Cody Barton allowed 34 catches for 395 yards, a touchdown and passer rating of 95.3 while recording two interceptions.

Who has the edge?

When Broncos run

Bo Nix rushed for a team-high 47 yards on seven carries against the Chiefs in Week 18. It was the fifth time the rookie quarterback led Denver in rushing during his rookie season. Second-year running back Jaleel McLaughlin totaled 315 yards on 76 outside run attempts, according to Next Gen Stats. The Bills allowed nine touchdowns and five yards per carry on outside runs. Edge: Bills

When Broncos pass

Bo Nix rides into the postseason with a ton of momentum. He threw for 803 yards, nine touchdowns and an interception while completing 79% of his pass attempts in his last three games. Wide receiver Marvin Mims Jr. had four touchdown receptions — tied for the most in the league during that span. Buffalo gave up 10 touchdown passes and a passer rating of 102.7 in the last four weeks. Edge: Even

When Bills run

James Cook had a success rate (percentage of carries resulting in positive EPA) of 42.5% — 10th-best in the league with a minimum of 200 carries, according to Next Gen Stats. He recorded 1,000-plus yards for the second straight year. Defensive end Zach Allen was Denver’s best run defender this season. He collected 20 run stuffs — tackles resulting in no gain or loss. A year ago, Denver struggled to slow down Cook. Of course, much has changed since. Edge: Bills