Projections indicate that Democrats will not gain the coveted two-thirds supermajorities in both chambers of the Legislature that would allow them to easily override Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo’s vetoes.
As of Tuesday evening, two Senate races and nine Assembly races are still in play, while The Nevada Independent has called a winner in 19 state Senate races and 33 Assembly races. With Republicans projected to win 15 seats in the Assembly, Democrats in the chamber are expected to lose their supermajority status.
However, there’s still a path for Democrats to gain a supermajority in the state Senate. If they can win those two yet-to-be-called races, the Democratic Party will hold a supermajority in the state Senate.
Leadership could also be in for a shakeup — two of the races that are too close to call include districts represented by Assembly Speaker Steve Yeager (D-Las Vegas) and Senate Majority Leader Nicole Cannizzaro (D-Las Vegas).
Democrats, who already hold a 28-seat supermajority in the 42-member Assembly, are one seat shy of the 14 seats needed for a two-thirds supermajority in the 21-member state Senate.
With the majority unable to override his vetoes, Lombardo has touted himself as a one-man roadblock to the Democratic majority’s policy priorities. In 2023, he set a record for the most vetoes issued in a single legislative session, rejecting 75 of the 611 bills passed by the Legislature.
Among the bills Lombardo scuttled that Democrats have highlighted this election cycle are a raft of housing bills that would have added new tenant protections and overhauled the state’s summary eviction procedures, measures to lower the cost of prescription drugs and a measure that would have continued funding universal free school breakfasts and lunches at K-12 schools.
Democrats have already announced they plan to bring back versions of the vetoed bills in 2025.
Outside of the 2014 “red-wave” election and subsequent legislative session, Democrats have maintained control of both houses of the Legislature since 2009, fueled by the “Reid Machine” built by longtime U.S. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV). The party further bolstered its structural advantages in congressional and legislative races in 2021 through control of the redistricting process, which saw Democrats redraw state maps.
Republicans have had more luck winning the governor’s seat, however, and can play a formidable defense against Democratic legislative majorities from that perch. Lombardo and his allies have taken an active role in picking and boosting candidates — mostly moderate Republicans — who have campaigned on the goal of preventing one-party rule in the Legislature.
The result has been a competitive cycle, with Democrats and Republicans neck and neck in fundraising and cash on hand.
Eleven seats in the 21-member Senate are not up for election this cycle, leaving 52 legislative races that will determine Lombardo’s veto power.
Nine of the seats up for election in the Legislature (seven in the Assembly and two in the Senate) were already decided because there was no challenger from an opposing party; four of the Assembly seats and one Senate seat that are already decided will be held by Republicans.
Below, we break down the status of supermajorities in each chamber of the Legislature and the consequential legislative races that we’re watching.
STATE SENATE
Senate District 5 – Sen. Carrie Buck (R-Henderson) is leading Jennifer Atlas (D) by a wide margin
In the swing district covering portions of Henderson and Paradise, Buck is projected to defeat Atlas.
Senate District 6 – Senate Majority Leader Nicole Cannizzaro (D-Las Vegas) and Jill Douglass are neck and neck
Cannizzaro is slightly ahead of Douglass in this Southern Nevada district, but it’s too close to call.
Senate District 11 – The election between Sen. Dallas Harris (D- Las Vegas) and Lori Rogich (R) is too close to call.
Rogich is leading Harris in the swing district located in the fast-growing area of the southwestern Las Vegas Valley, bounded by the 215 Beltway, Interstate 15 and Durango Drive.
Senate District 15 – Assemblywoman Angie Taylor (D-Reno) is projected to defeat Mike Ginsburg (R)
Taylor is far ahead of Ginsburg in the district covering southwestern Washoe County, which used to favor Republicans but shifted to have a significant Democratic voter registration advantage under the state’s 2021 redistricting process.
The seat is open after Sen. Heidi Seevers O’Gara (formerly Seevers Gansert) (R-Reno) announced last year that she would not run for re-election.
ASSEMBLY
Assembly District 4 – Lisa Cole (R) is projected to win against Ryan Hampton (D)
In the race for this open seat in northwest Las Vegas, currently held by a Republican, Cole is projected to defeat Hampton.
The seat is open after Assemblyman Richard McArthur, a Republican, launched an unsuccessful bid for state Senate. The seat has been Republican-held since 2020, but it is no stranger to tight races and has narrow voter registration margins between the two major parties.
Assembly District 5 — Assemblywoman Brittney Miller (D-Las Vegas) is locked in a tight battle with Kelly Quinn (R)
Miller is slightly ahead in the Southern Nevada district.
Assembly District 9 – Assembly Speaker Steve Yeager (D-Las Vegas) is only slightly ahead of Erica Neely (R)
Yeager has a slim lead in the usually reliably blue district in Southern Nevada.
Assembly District 12 – Nancy Roecker (R) is slightly ahead of Assemblyman Max Carter (D-Las Vegas)
The race is too close to call, but Roecker holds a slim lead against Carter.
Assembly District 16 – Assemblywoman Cecelia Gonzalez (D-Las Vegas) holds a slim lead against James Neville (R)
Gonzalez holds a slim lead in this Southern Nevada district.
Assembly District 21 — This race between Assemblywoman Elaine Marzola (D-Las Vegas) and April Arndt (R) is still too close to call.
Marzola is slightly ahead of Arndt, but the race is still too close to call.
Assembly District 25 – Assemblywoman Selena La Rue Hatch (D-Reno) is projected to defeat Diana Sande (R)
La Rue Hatch is leading in the sprawling swing district, which extends from Bartley Ranch to Reno’s Northgate community and includes parts of the city’s old southwest and northwest neighborhoods and Caughlin Ranch communities.
Assembly District 29 – The race between Joe Dalia (D) and Annette Dawson Owens (R) is too close to call.
Dalia is leading by a narrow margin in the open, long-competitive, slightly Democrat-leaning district that cuts across large swaths of Henderson. The seat is open after five-term Democratic Assemblywoman Lesley Cohen announced she would not be running for re-election.
Assembly District 34 – Hanadi Nadeem (D) is slightly ahead of Brandon Davis (R)
Nadeem is narrowly ahead of Davis in the Summerlin-area Assembly District 34. Assemblywoman Shannon Bilbray-Axelrod (D-Las Vegas) is vacating the seat to run for Clark County Commission.
Assembly District 35 – Rebecca Edgeworth (R) is projected to defeat Sharifa Wahab (D)
Edgeworth has the advantage in this Southern Nevada race. The seat is being vacated by Assemblywoman Michelle Gorelow (D-Las Vegas).
Assembly District 37 – This race between Assemblywoman Shea Backus (D-Las Vegas) and David Brog (R) is too close to call.
The race in Summerlin has Backus slightly ahead.
Assembly District 41 – The race between Assemblywoman Sandra Jauregui (D-Las Vegas) and Rafael Arroyo (R) is too close to call
Jauregui is slightly ahead of Arroyo in Assembly District 41, which straddles St. Rose Parkway and includes parts of Henderson and unincorporated parts of Clark County.
