Indy Elections is The Nevada Independent’s newsletter devoted to comprehensive and accessible coverage of the 2024 elections, from the race for the White House to the bid to take control of the Legislature.
In today’s edition: The download on what The Nevada Independent’s staff are watching this Election Day. Plus, links you may want to save and reference, a last-minute poll showing Vice President Kamala Harris leading in Nevada, some information about watch parties and the ever-important reminder from The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy: “DON’T PANIC.” We’ll get results when we get them.
It’s official: The Indy’s sleep-deprived oracle has released his predictions. Be sure to check out his early-voting live blog for background on where turnout stands so far.
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By the Numbers:
- 0 days until Election Day
- Approximately 12 hours until polls close, and election officials begin reporting results
- TBD on when we’ll know the winner of Nevada’s presidential election
By By Tabitha Mueller, Gabby Brienbaum, Howard Stutz, Eric Neugeboren, Rocio Hernandez and Isabella Aldrete
On the first day of early voting, Nevadans described this year as the election of their lifetimes, pointing to the swing state’s toss-up status in the presidential race, a U.S. Senate race that could shape control of the upper chamber of Congress, a ballot question that could fundamentally change Nevada’s election system and races that could determine whether Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo can remain a one-man roadblock to the Democratic majority’s agenda in the Legislature.
Lower down on the ballot, the election is just as consequential. Washoe County’s lone commission race this cycle could oust the board’s most influential Democratic commissioner, and Clark County could see its first Republican elected to its commission since 2004 — an indication that the reliably blue county commission might be shifting.
This year’s election also promises insights into the partisan lean of the state’s growing share of nonpartisan voters.
Staff at The Nevada Independent explain the trends and races that we’re watching and what the results could say about Nevada’s electorate.
Stay in the loop while polls are open with our constantly updating live blog.
Results live blog (this will go live on Tuesday evening)
Follow along with our race calls once results are in.
The Nevada Independent’s Election Guide
The central place to find all the information on Nevada Supreme Court and Southern Nevada judicial races, Nevada’s seven ballot measures, legislative and federal races and answers to frequently asked questions.
It could still take days for races to be called, but we’ll have a clearer sense after polls close than in past years.
Posts from Indy reporters on X (Twitter)
The Indy reporters you’ll want to follow on social media:
New York Times / Siena College (Oct. 24 – Nov. 2)
- 1,010 likely voters
- Margin of error: 3.6 percent
- Findings
- Harris 49%, Trump 46%
- Rosen 52%, Brown 43%
With more than 1.1 million ballots already cast, polls’ relevance has greatly diminished — but we’ll make an exception for the NYT/Siena poll, one of the highest-quality surveys we have. And somewhat counterintuitively to the early voting data, the poll finds Harris performing the best in Nevada among all swing states.
The crosstabs resemble a more typical Nevada presidential election. Trump is only at 35 percent support among Hispanic voters, with Harris ahead by 32 percentage points. Trump is up big with white voters, including college-educated whites (15 percentage points), despite other polls suggesting Harris is improving on Biden’s margins with that group. Trump is winning men by 16 percentage points; Harris is up 22 with women. And Harris is up 9 with nonpartisans — the real deciders.
Geographically, the poll has Harris up 8 percentage points in Clark County — Biden won by 9 — Trump up 22 percentage points in the rurals, and Washoe County tied.
High rural turnout — and margin for Trump — could disrupt the polling breakdown. Registered Republicans are up 38 percentage points in turnout in the rurals as of Monday, so Harris would need serious support among nonpartisans there to keep the scenario that the NYT describes alive.
— Gabby Birenbaum
🖥️A small glitch ahead of Election Day — Washoe County’s Deputy Registrar of Voters Andrew McDonald told the Reno Gazette-Journal that there’s a small glitch delaying transfers of the data with the county’s mail-in ballot counts to the state’s new Voter Registration and Election Management System, but “things are running smoothly.” McDonald said the county is caught up on mail-in and early voting numbers, but said there’s occasionally a “file transmission error” that can lead to delays.
Though the data is delayed, McDonald said it’s still available in the county system.
“We have it, and all we do is restart that transmission to get those numbers up to the state,” McDonald said.
— Tabitha Mueller
- 5 p.m.: The Nevada GOP is hosting an official watch night party at the Ahern Hotel in Las Vegas.
- 5:30 p.m.: Republican U.S. Senate Candidate Sam Brown is holding an election watch party at Red Rock Casino.
- 6:30 – 11 p.m.: Congressional District 2 hopeful Greg Kidd is hosting an election night watch party at the Grand Sierra Resort’s Kingpin Lounge.
- 7:30 p.m.: The Nevada Democrats are hosting an election night party with the Democratic federal delegation, state legislators and other elected Democratic officials at ARIA Resort & Casino.
- 8 p.m.: Las Vegas mayoral candidate Shelley Berkley will hold an election watch party at the Plaza Hotel and Casino in the Sand Dollar Lounge.
And to ease you into the week, a few “posts” to “X” that caught our eye:
We’ll see you Thursday.
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