Arizona has seen a decline in early voting compared to recent years, with only 51.7% of registered voters voting early – about 300,000 less voters than in the 2020 general election, according to data compiled by Uplift from Arizona county recorder offices.
Most notable is the drop in registered Democrats voting early. In 2020, 36.5% of early voters were Democrats.
However, this year 32.6% of early voters were Democrats and only 29% of those voted early. While the number of Democrats voting early has fallen, the number of Republicans voting early has risen.
This year, 40.9% of all early returns were Republicans compared to 37% in 2020. Even though only about half of registered voters have submitted an early ballot, Republicans still have an edge with the gap widening between the number of registered Republicans and Democrats compared to previous years.
In 2020, there were 31.29% registered Democrats, 34.74% registered Republicans and 33.14% registered Independents. There has been a steady decline in registered Democrats and a steady increase in registered Republicans since then. In 2022, there were 30.66% registered Democrats, 34.64% registered Republicans and 32.89% registered Independents. And, this year, there are 35.77% registered Republicans, 29% registered Democrats and 33.69% registered Independents. While the percentage of registered Independents fell in 2022, it started to climb back up again this year.
So, while Republicans have an advantage so far in Arizona, there has been a low early vote turnout of Democrats and Independents which could tip the scales come election day and it may come down to Arizona’s largest county – Maricopa County.
This year, 1,330,564 – about half – of Maricopa’s registered voters voted early. While this is an increase from 2022’s numbers, it is a significant decrease from 2020 where 73.81% of Maricopa County submitted early ballots.
Maricopa County is following the overall trend of more Republicans voting early than Democrats. This year, 40.3% of early voters are Republican, 32.1% are Democrats and 27.6% are Independents. Additionally, less than 40% of registered Independents in Maricopa County voted early, creating more uncertainty around the results of the election.
These numbers show that while Republicans seem to have an edge, Arizona could go either way depending on Democratic turnout and which way Independent and undecided voters swing on Election Day.
