Wisconsin nursing homes and assisted living facilities would need to add 33,000 new beds in just seven years to maintain the state’s current ratio of beds to elderly residents, according to a Forward Analytics report.
This research arm of the Wisconsin Counties Association yesterday released a report called “On the Brink: Probing the Coming Senior Care Challenges.” It comes as the state’s population of residents aged 75 years and older is set to increase 41% to 574,000 by 2030, putting significant strain on Wisconsin’s senior care industry.
“Creating sufficient infrastructure is one challenge, but it may be even more difficult to staff these facilities given Wisconsin’s worker shortage,” report authors wrote. “If care ratios remain unchanged, these facilities would need an additional 9,900 registered nurses, CNAs, and home health/personal care aides by 2030.”
While the report highlights future challenges driven by demographic trends, it also details how the industry has changed between 2000 and 2020. Over that period, the number of beds in senior care facilities rose at a “similar rate” to the population of those 75 and older, remaining around 194 total beds per 1,000 elderly residents.
But at the same time, a decline in nursing home beds has been balanced out by an increase in assisted living beds. While the number of licensed nursing home beds fell from 43,551 to 28,133 over those two decades, the number of assisted living beds rose from 67,248 to 79,002. Report authors point to limited Medicaid nursing home funding and increased family care funding as one factor driving that shift.
Wisconsin would need about 111,000 total beds in 2030 to maintain the current ratio of beds to elderly residents, an increase of more than 42% from the 78,000 licensed beds in 2023, the report shows. But the elderly population is projected to continue growing in the following decade, pushing up the projected need for beds to nearly 138,000 in 2040 — a 76% increase over the number from 2023.
“If this projection plays out, the state would need to license and staff a combined 59,500 new beds over the next 17 years,” report authors wrote.
The total number of registered nurses, aides and certified nursing assistants in the state is projected to increase by 12,800 between 2022 and 2030, exceeding the expected need of 9,900 workers in these professions for that timeframe. But due to the continuing growth in the elderly population, the state is expected to need another 10,000 workers in these positions by 2040, the report shows.
“Given the state’s current demographics, the state’s workforce is likely to decline, or at best remain stagnant, during those years, making it difficult to achieve that number,” authors wrote.
