Broncos (1-2) at Jets (2-1)
When: Sunday, 11 a.m. MT
Where: MetLife Stadium
Radio/TV: 850 AM, 94.1 FM/CBS
Broncos-Jets series: Denver is 21-18-1 in 40 regular-season games dating back to 1960; the Broncos lost 31-21 in the last meeting, on Oct. 8, 2023, at home and have dropped two in a row against New York.
In the spotlight: Quinnen Williams, Jets pass rush pose difficult challenge for Denver’s offensive line
Patriots quarterback Jacoby Brissett didn’t stand a chance against Quinnen Williams.
In the third quarter of New York’s 24-3 win over New England, the Jets defensive lineman maneuvered around the center David Andrews before sacking Brissett for a loss of 12 yards. Earlier in the quarter, Williams fought through a double team to force Brissett to throw an incomplete pass.
Led by Williams up front, New York’s defense blitzed Brissett on 40% of his dropbacks — the highest rate in a game under head coach Robert Saleh, according to Next Gen Stats. Williams generated four pressures and a sack on 18 pass rushes (22.2% pressure rate).
On Sunday, the Broncos offensive line will have its work cut out for it with Williams and New York’s pass rush. In the victory over Tampa Bay, the unit provided solid protection for rookie quarterback Bo Nix despite missing right tackle Mike McGlinchey. But expect the Jets to test the offensive line to see whether it maintains its strong play from last week or the group’s performance was inflated by key injuries on the Buccaneers defensive line.
“It’s really hard (to stop Williams),” head coach Sean Payton said. “At that position where he’s playing, he’s been the best in the league at affecting the quarterback at defensive tackle, and you see it on tape.”
Through three weeks, the Jets have been one of the best teams in the league in terms of getting after the quarterback. The Jets have the second-best pressure rate in the league at 45.6%. Part of that is due to Williams — who has eight pressures — being an interior disruptor.
Another element to the Jets pass rush success has been the emergence of second-year outside linebacker Will McDonald IV. He already has five sacks after totaling just three in 15 games as a rookie.
Last week, New York emphasized taking advantage of the Patriots’ poor offensive line. Brissett faced pressure on 56.5% of his dropbacks — the highest rate he’s has faced in a game since 2018 (min. 10 attempts), according to Next Gen Stats. Against the blitz, Brissett had more sacks (three) than completions (2 of 7 for 28 yards).
Even when the Patriots gave rookie Drake Maye reps at quarterback in the fourth quarter, New York didn’t let up its pressure. The Jets sacked Maye twice, including in the final 20 seconds of regulation. The Jets’ seven sacks against New England is tied with Denver and Houston for the second-most by a team in a game this season.
The Broncos offensive line made strides in Week 3. But the overall body of work hasn’t been stellar. Though Nix has been sacked only four times, Denver has allowed 41 pressures — 10th-most in the NFL. It won’t be surprising if New York brings the heat on Nix. He has struggled throwing the ball under pressure, completing 14 of 35 passes for 84 yards, three interceptions and a passer rating of 12.2 in those situations.
“When the defensive line tells you it’s time to throw the football, you (have) to throw the football, take a sack or move. If they do that before the route has developed, it makes things more difficult,” offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi said. “Interior pressure is always a problem for anyone. Obviously, we (have) good stout guards and they’re going to have to play well.”
Who has the edge?
When Broncos run
Nix is Denver’s leading rusher, and it’s not even close. He has 18 carries for 107 yards and two touchdowns. The Broncos’ second-best rusher? Tyler Badie, who has 86 yards on 10 attempts. Denver has done a solid job at utilizing Nix’s speed by incorporating zone reads into the game plan. However, is Nix being the Broncos’ top rusher sustainable? With the recent struggles of starter Javonte Williams, the Broncos could lean on Badie to provide more consistency in the run game. The Jets allowed 310 rushing yards in its first two games before holding New England to 68 on the ground in Week 3. Edge: Jets
When Broncos pass
The Broncos found life in their passing attack last week. Nix completed 69.4% of his pass attempts while throwing for 216. He completed a pass to nine different targets, including wideout Courtland Sutton — who had a team-high seven catches for 68 yards. The Jets allowed 61 passing yards in the win over the Patriots — the fewest in a game by any team this season. Edge: Jets
When Jets run
Denver made strides in run defense, holding the Buccaneers to 91 rushing yards. However, the Broncos are set to face their toughest competition thus far in running backs Breece Hall and Braelon Allen. Hall has rushed for 170 yards and two touchdowns in three games. Last season, one of his three 100-yard performances came against the Broncos. He torched Denver’s defense for 177 yards and a score on 22 carries. Early impressions of Allen have been good. The rookie has 141 total yards and two touchdowns. Both players have shown they can make an impact in the run and pass game, which could be problematic for the Broncos. Edge: Jets
When Jets pass
Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers still has that dog in him. The 41-year-old veteran is a year removed from a torn Achilles and has thrown for 624 yards, five touchdowns and an interception. New York’s offensive line, however, has taken a major hit with right tackle Morgan Moses sidelined with a MCL sprain and bone bruise. Denver blitzes more than any team in the league (44.8%) and has generated the sixth-most quarterback pressures (43). Part of that is due to the secondary’s solid coverage, allowing the front seven to attack the quarterback. Edge: Even
Special teams
Broncos kicker Wil Lutz was named the AFC Special Teams Player of the Week after going 4 for 4 on field goal attempts and 2 for 2 on PATs. He hasn’t missed a field goal on nine tries in three games. Jets kicker Greg Zuerlin is 2 for 3 on field goal attempts and 0 for 1 between 40-49 yards. Edge: Broncos
Coaching
Against Tampa Bay, Payton coached arguably his best game since arriving in Denver last year. The offense appeared to be in sync and he was able to utilize the best of Nix’s ability. Defensive coordinator Vance Joseph has turned the defense from being one of the worst in 2023 to one of the best through three weeks of the 2024 campaign. Jets head coach Robert Saleh’s defenses are always tough, but the jury is still out on whether offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett has ridden the success of Rodgers — one of the game’s best quarterbacks. Edge: Even
Tale of the tape
Total offense: Broncos 292.7 (23rd); Jets 310.3 (18th)
Rush offense: 99.7 (21st); 100.7 (20th)
Pass offense: 193 (20th); 209.7 (14th)
Points per game: 17.3 (23rd); 22.3 (14th)
Total Defense: 259.3 (3rd); 280 (7th)
Run defense: 126 (22nd); 129.3 (23rd)
Pass defense: 133.3 (2nd); 150.7 (4th)
Points allowed: 15.3 (6th); 17.3 (8th)
*Stats from 2024
By the numbers
600: The number of passing yards for Nix.
21: The number of tackles for cornerback Riley Moss.
4: The number of takeaways by the Broncos.
480: The number of career passing touchdowns for Rodgers.
32: The number of career passes defended by Sauce Gardner.
Bet on it
Garrett Wilson under 54.5 receiving yards
Surtain has gone against the opposition’s best wideout. Expect him to do the same against wide receiver Garrett Wilson. Surtain has lined up against Seattle’s DK Metcalf, Pittsburgh’s George Pickens and Tampa Bay’s Mike Evans this season. He was targeted once in Week 3, allowing Evans’ single reception for 8 yards, according to Next Gen Stats. Wilson totaled five catches for 33 yards and a touchdown last week and has averaged 50 yards per contest. Expect Surtain to contain Wilson on Sunday.
Javonte Williams under 7.5 rushing attempts
Williams had fewer than 10 carries in two of Denver’s last three games. With the recent success of Badie, don’t be surprised if the Broncos let the former Missouri standout have more carries than Williams for the second straight week. Badie currently has the hot hand, and the Broncos should ride the wave until proven otherwise.
Post predictions
Parker Gabriel, beat writer: Jets 24, Broncos 13
Nix and the Denver offense made progress in Week 3 against Tampa Bay. This New York defense, though, is in a different class than the Bucs. They pressure the quarterback with four and have plenty of resources left over to cover. Vance Joseph’s defense is off to a great start and should play well even without Alex Singleton, but it’s a tall task to win back-to-back on the road, especially with a still-iffy offense.
Ryan McFadden, beat writer: Broncos 23, Jets 20
I know I’m in the minority here. Hall has a good track record against the Broncos, Rodgers is a first ballot Hall of Famer, and the Jets’ pass rush is going to test Nix. But I have faith in Joseph and Denver’s defense, even after losing Singleton for the season. This matchup will end with a game-winning field goal from Lutz.
Troy Renck, columnist: Broncos 20, Jets 17
There is no reason Denver should win. The Broncos offense remains spotty, Nix is under construction, and the defense lost Singleton. But there is something about the Broncos bonding at the Greenbrier Resort that will make the Jets see red with multiple takeaways and a big game from Badie. After knocking the smug smiles off the faces of Rodgers and Hackett, coach Sean Payton will have Broncos practice in Almost Heaven, West Virginia, for all remaining road games.
Sean Keeler, columnist: Jets 23, Broncos 15
Welcome to the party, Kwon Alexander. No pressure. Looked up the last time Singleton didn’t suit up for the orange and blue. Week 4 of the ’22 season, at Vegas. Didn’t end well. The Raiduhs rambled for 212 rushing yards on 38 carries. The Silver and Black and Josh McDaniels sent Nathaniel Hackett home with a 32-23 loss. Hackett’s Jets probably won’t hit the 30 mark in this one, but darned if he won’t try.
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