Bo Nix can fix Broncos, but Sean Payton must let skill catch up to brain

WHITE SULPHUR SPRINGS, W.Va. – Before taking exit 181 onto Main Street East, before going past Road Hog’s Diner, before contemplating Shoney’s strawberry pie, before buying a gift at Christmas at The Depot off Sam Snead Drive, there is one question to ask about the Broncos as they face the New York Jets: Do you Bo-lieve?

The Broncos finally won a game last Sunday, suffocating the Buccaneers 26-7. But more importantly, Bo Nix looked like the fix. He was comfortable and properly cast, running an offense customized by his coach.

So as the Broncos retreated to the hills of West Virginia to prepare for the Jets, Nix remains central to Denver surprising opponents — as it did last Sunday — or sending the franchise back into a frustrating spiral of doom.

That’s how the NFL works. Look at the matchups. How many times do you pick the winner in your office pool based on which team has the best quarterback?

Nix loses that argument this week against Aaron Rodgers — “It’s pretty surreal going against him,” Nix admitted of the four-time MVP — but he can win over Broncos Country with gradual improvement.

Do you Bo-lieve? The question hangs over this season, this week flavored with optimism and creamy Logan Turnpike cheddar grits from Draper’s Cafe (I hope all of you find someone in your life who loves you like Sean Payton loves the Greenbrier Resort).

An interesting dynamic exists with Nix, however, that makes believing a risk.

At 24, having played for five coordinators in five college seasons, he is ready mentally. Payton knows this. Don’t listen to what he says, just look at the stats. Nix has dropped back 127 times, fourth most in the NFL behind Deshaun Watson, Caleb Williams and Dak Prescott.

The kid can handle the playbook. Otherwise, it would be career suicide to pass this many times, this fast.

Payton insists that the plan is to demand that coaches and players around Nix “paint the right picture.” Is it though? Nix has spent the first three Sundays standing on a scaffold, craning his neck like Michelangelo providing brush strokes on the ceiling of the Sistine Chapel.

Do you Bo-lieve? His processing is encouraging, a QB with a PhD. He is the anti-Paxton Lynch. Nix has rarely shown indecisiveness, let alone incompetence, making him easy to embrace over the previous 13 starters since Peyton Manning retired.

But is Payton overvaluing his mind in this immersion? Is this the right approach or potential negligence?

There is a baseball vibe to this experiment, putting the top prospect in the lineup with no excuses and seeing if he can figure it out. Will he be more like Jackson Chourio or Jackson Holliday?

Nix is smart. But, there are times in this 1-2 start when he looks closer to the player he was at Auburn than Oregon. He was awful for three quarters at Seattle and uneven against Pittsburgh before finding traction at Tampa Bay.

Do you Bo-lieve? After the Bucs rout, it is tempting to say yes.

In fairness to him, the truth lies somewhere between. Nix took a step forward because Payton called a better game — Nix produced chunk yardage on the first three plays — and simplified the plan. He reached the line of scrimmage sooner, allowing more time to assess the defense.

The confidence Payton showed in Nix was felt by the offense. The training wheels were off. No Tampa Bay cornerbacks were snickering that they knew what was coming like the Steelers DBs the previous week.

But it comes with an important caveat. Nix was pressured on 23.1% of his dropbacks vs. Tampa Bay compared to 36.7 and 35.9 in the first two weeks.

If you want to Bo-lieve, then you better hope the Broncos protect him from harm better than the secret bunker built underneath the Greenbrier Resort for all 535 members of Congress.

This is why this equation, at least this early, is tricky. Nix can ace the whiteboard. But will this all-throttle approach allow time for his physical skills to develop?